AHC:Get Italy Tunisia

during the conference of Berlin, Tunisia was assigned to France, much to the opposition of Italy.

How would Italy manage to get Tunisia?

Would they have to sacrifice one or all of its other claims? (Tripoliatinia, Cyreneicra (Spelling?), Eteria, or Somalia?
Which one of these would Italy be most willing to Sacrifice? which one would France want?

If Italy recieves Tunisia, how would this change the course of history? will there be a WWI? if so which side would Italy be on?

Would Tunisia ever throughly become "Italian" through mass immigration from Italy?

Would Tunisia (and the rest or some of the other colonies) still be part of Italy today?
 
According to A.J.P Taylor Italy could do whatever she wanted - Bismarck didn't give shit about Italy but wanted peace on the western border! ;)
 
Bismarck was willing to leave the French a freehand in Africa in the (ultimately delusional) hope that would make them forget about Alsace.
However, the fact that France was able to anticipate Italy in Tunisia dependend much on local dynamics Germany wasn't willing to interfere on at all. A quicker and smarter Italian action could bring Italy in a de facto situation of local control and there was a point where France won't be able to reverse it without war, exactly the opposite of OTL. Neither country would go to war over Tunisia: Italy wouldn'y, and didn't, because she would have been isolated as an aggressor. France wouldn'y, because it would have likely been casus foederis for German and Austrian intervention on Italian side, and France was isolated as well.
So, if a Tunisian faction call for Italian intervention at some point in 1879-80 Italy would have upper hand. I don't think that Italy would have to leave any other claim she had. At this point, Italy held only a small outpost on the Eritrean coast. Her further expansion in Eritrea happened in the framework of a cooperation with Britain that is probably not changed, unless the Italian forces are so sucked into Tunisia that ecomic concern forbids another commitment elsewhere in Africa. At this point, Britain would have to rely on Ethiopia as the local proxy, intervene directly in the area, and maybe allow for some little French claims.
Tunisia already had a significant Italian population that would increase in case of colonization. Tunisia had the potential to actually become the settler colony Italy was being longing for, taking a part of the emigration stream that went to Algeria, France and the Americas in OTL. Italy tried hard to settle italian colonists in Eritrea and later in Libya, with very limited success.
Ethnic cleansing was required for even those limited and ill-fated attemps to start, and so there would be a Tunisian revolt, followed by brutal repression, land confiscation on a wide basis and following state-support settling, in a way not so different than what the French did in Algeria.
I can see a more frustrated and warlike France, even more isolated internationally, as a consequence. Boulanger could come to power? Adua may be butterflied, and that would hugely impact Italian self-perception and politics, non necessarily in a saner way. Without a defeat, the nationalist frenzy could actually be worse TTL and the anti-democratic forces stronger. I see an earlier war for Lybia, and a more authoritarian rule, even more polarized politics, especially if the tyrant Umberto I is not killed.
 
The assignment of Tunis to the French sphere did not actually have any immediate effect. It was a decision based on French internal politics to act on this and seize effective control of Tunis, over the protests of both the bey and the Italians.

Ropp IIRC has something interesting on this, as does "The Scramble for Africa"

Best Regards
Grey Wolf
 
I can see a more frustrated and warlike France, even more isolated internationally, as a consequence. Boulanger could come to power? Adua may be butterflied, and that would hugely impact Italian self-perception and politics, non necessarily in a saner way. Without a defeat, the nationalist frenzy could actually be worse TTL and the anti-democratic forces stronger. I see an earlier war for Lybia, and a more authoritarian rule, even more polarized politics, especially if the tyrant Umberto I is not killed.

Probably not, a Tunisia in the italian sphere of influence can validate the politics of prime minister of the time, a politics of gradual economic and political penetration and not of overly conquest, and frankly Libya will be probably left alone, it was a sandbox conquered simply because was the only thing left not for some economic or strategic need. Tunisia otherwise already boast a sizeble italian minority and can be easily transformed in a appendix of the motherland with a constant afflux of immigrants, and if the government convinced people to go in libya and the horn of Africa, Tunisi is more simple and appealing. No 'slap of tunisi' mean lesser economic repercussion in Italy and a little bolder in foreign and colonia politics, probably a more strong effort in Eritrea and Ethiopia but still with economic and political mean or even try with a protectorare in Aceh or buying what left of the spanish empire instead of Germany (if she can scrap enough money), but internally i don't see much difference than OTL except a more nationalist tone in general but not enough to transform Italy in a overtly authoritarian nation
 
Probably not, a Tunisia in the italian sphere of influence can validate the politics of prime minister of the time, a politics of gradual economic and political penetration and not of overly conquest, and frankly Libya will be probably left alone, it was a sandbox conquered simply because was the only thing left not for some economic or strategic need. Tunisia otherwise already boast a sizeble italian minority and can be easily transformed in a appendix of the motherland with a constant afflux of immigrants, and if the government convinced people to go in libya and the horn of Africa, Tunisi is more simple and appealing. No 'slap of tunisi' mean lesser economic repercussion in Italy and a little bolder in foreign and colonia politics, probably a more strong effort in Eritrea and Ethiopia but still with economic and political mean or even try with a protectorare in Aceh or buying what left of the spanish empire instead of Germany (if she can scrap enough money), but internally i don't see much difference than OTL except a more nationalist tone in general but not enough to transform Italy in a overtly authoritarian nation

It depends on how Crispi plays out, but actually there are lots of political butterflies before he comes into power. The evolution towards a more authoritarian, though nout completely so, situation was partly halted (for a while) by the Adua setback, though not without great turmoil. On the pros, a nationalist-conservative regime would probably be less tyrannical than Fascism. Also, as I said before, in the event Italy gets Tunisia she may not be willing to commit to Eritrea at the same time, and the Italian area there could be smaller and less valuable. That in turn would cause far less Italian activism in Ethiopia, with a different local arrangements. Somalia will end up being Italian mostly because nobody else would bother to take it. Lybia will still be seen as a strategic backyard for Tunisia and the first place to go to appease nationalists if they get too vocal. For sure, Italy would be as adamant as OTL about not letting anyone else take it.
 
Well Italy didn't TAKE Somalia until the 1920s, it extended protectorares over the sultanates before that. Given that, I think there would be more danger of someone intervening directly if Italy is not a closely neighbouring colonial power

Best Regards
Grey Wolf
 
Well Italy didn't TAKE Somalia until the 1920s, it extended protectorares over the sultanates before that. Given that, I think there would be more danger of someone intervening directly if Italy is not a closely neighbouring colonial power

Best Regards
Grey Wolf

Yes, but she still had an (almost) unquestioned claim since late eighties/early nineties. The way holding Tunisia affects the overall Italian colonial policy is somewhat unpredictable: it may end in bith absorbing resources that were used elsewhere OTL (especially in Eritrea) or embolden the Italians to search even more adventures, so an earlier and more extendend action in the Horn.
 
People are forgetting how important the sea lanes past Sicily were to the Royal Navy. The British wanted them neutral - in this case neutral means not in the hands of any one power. If France has Tunis, and Italy has Sicily, then those sea lanes are basically open. An Italian Tunisia would be at Britain's immediate opposition, but it may also mean that Italy is further enticed to joining the entente and abandoning its prior agreements with the Triple Alliance much earlier.

Alternatively, any Italian pre-emptive action in Tunisia might be diplomatically forced down by an Anglo-French mission anyway, similarly to how Fashoda almost turned out.
 
People are forgetting how important the sea lanes past Sicily were to the Royal Navy. The British wanted them neutral - in this case neutral means not in the hands of any one power. If France has Tunis, and Italy has Sicily, then those sea lanes are basically open. An Italian Tunisia would be at Britain's immediate opposition, but it may also mean that Italy is further enticed to joining the entente and abandoning its prior agreements with the Triple Alliance much earlier.

Alternatively, any Italian pre-emptive action in Tunisia might be diplomatically forced down by an Anglo-French mission anyway, similarly to how Fashoda almost turned out.

The French tried to convince the British that this would be the case, but the UK thought it was nonsense, as Italy was clearly British-aligned.
 
What would happen to Libya if Italy went for Tunisia? Personally, over nationalist sentiments, I still think the Italians would take Libya and the fact that it's still close and right next to Tunisia would influence the Italians decision, I think a lot less emphasis would be put on the Horn of Africa in this case which the British would probably take to some degree.
 
What would happen to Libya if Italy went for Tunisia? Personally, over nationalist sentiments, I still think the Italians would take Libya and the fact that it's still close and right next to Tunisia would influence the Italians decision, I think a lot less emphasis would be put on the Horn of Africa in this case which the British would probably take to some degree.

I tend to agree.
 
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