No, and apart from that, I wouldn't make the mistake of thinking that the Heer and Luftwaffe of 1940 are the same as those of 1939.
16 divisions on garrison duties in Poland in 1940 is about 10% of the total of available divisions in 1940.
10% of the total available German divisions in 1939 isn't 16 divisions; it's 10 divisions.
That's the big if. With only 10 divisions facing them, the Poles won't just gain terrain in frontier regions, they'll be heading for Stettin and Breslau within three days. Meanwhile, the Germans only have 90 divisions against France, while in OTL 1940 they used 140.
Germany defeated France in less than two months. I think that they would have done much worse if they didn't take out Poland first.
Germany in 1940 was much stronger than in 1939. While there wasn't too much a difference between 1939 France and 1940 France.
I don't think Poland backstabs Germany, but I think Germany would be less likely to steamroll France.
@ Michele and
@Black - I would agree that attacking France in 1939 is not a good look for Germany, no matter what Poland does or does not do.
The German force is much smaller in summer 1939 or fall 1939, and a fall campaign leaves a shorter fighting season window.
But what if 1939 is a quiet year for the Germans after they grab Bohemia, and they just secretly build up for a surprise attack in the west in May 1940, without going to war with Poland in the meantime?
Sure the Germans don't get to loot occupied Poland, but it was not a very rich country anyway [I always had the impression that Austria and Bohemia were the financially and industrially lucrative eastern targets]. If they do not attack Poland in 1939 they are not in a declared war with Britain and France, and not under blockade, they should be able to build up to a strength of 140 divisions in the west and 16 divisions in the east by May 1940. The Germans have time to come up with a decent plan for the west. The British and French are rearming, but less mobilized, with the BEF not even in France yet.
Theoretically the Poles could attack in the east, but their odds are not as decent as in the 1939 scenario described. Keeping Poland out, and keeping the WAllies more lulled could be especially reinforced if Hitler simply communicate at any point in late '38 or through '39 or early '40 in public any urgent need to change the status of corridor or Danzig or complain about Poland.
So his tactic is to knock the French out first so he can concentrate on the East more easily later? Mega-Schlieffen?
So the operational details of the 1940 plan differed a bit from Schlieffen, but in fundamental grand strategy, this is what Hitler advocated in Mein Kampf, the Hossbach memorandum and carried out in real life. He just added an extra dance move to the east along with the nonaggression pact fake-out with Russia as well, which none of his earlier writings predicted or proposed.
Apart from his experience with the real Schlieffen Plan, could he delude himself (well, he could delude himself into believing many things...) into thinking that really knocking out France for good (Vichy-style) wouldn't inevitably bring the British into the war?
Well, he did seem delusional in his earlier writings, especially after the Anglo-French disagreement over the Ruhr, that he could separate the two and align with Britain. By the time of the Hossbach memorandum in 1937, he was convinced Britain would oppose him at some point, but also convinced they could be convinced to quit if deprived of a continental ally.
And if he takes that into account, what is changed, other than the order of things (first France, then Poland, i.e. first the stronger enemy, then the weaker one)?
This is fundamentally true - he is changing the order things more than anything else. If he's gotta move east in 1941, he will be faced the uncoordinated resistances of the Poles [assuming the Poles did not throw themselves into the fray in 1940] and Soviets in sequence. The differences will be that in addition to his Balkan allies like Hungary and Romania (which starts in possession of Bessarabia), he also likely starts with Estonia and Latvia as allies.