AHC: German victory and collapse in WWI

Like the title says, have Germany win World War One only to fall shortly thereafter, let's say fifteen years.
My scenario, which may be plausible or not, is a second Mexican-American War breaking out sometime in late 1917 when US troops have arrived in some numbers, but not enough to be decisive. The extra troops are of course directed at Mexico due to America coming first. This allows Germany the extra time it would need to grind the Allies to dust while weakening them enough that post-war they're struggling to hold their empire. Over the next few years, Germany is overstretched and collapses either due to revolts in Mittleuropa, a war with the Soviets, or both.
 
Buried somewhere in the archives are the US war plans for a 'Mexican War'. Perhaps easier to turn up would be the army formed up along the Mexican border & left there through 1918. The size of that army or force may give a indication of how much would have been with held from the AEF.
 
What do you mean by fall? I don't think revolt in Mittel Europa will cause a crushing revolution and civil war in Germany itself, at best it will cause the fall of the incumbent government and perhaps some constitutional reform. Nor would a war with the Soviets within 15 years of a WW1 victory lead to Germany's fall as a victorious Germany with the resources of MittelEuropa to call on should defeat the Soviets.
 
What do you mean by fall? I don't think revolt in Mittel Europa will cause a crushing revolution and civil war in Germany itself, at best it will cause the fall of the incumbent government and perhaps some constitutional reform. Nor would a war with the Soviets within 15 years of a WW1 victory lead to Germany's fall as a victorious Germany with the resources of MittelEuropa to call on should defeat the Soviets.

A collapse of the empire, a la the Soviet Union. Germany itself doesn't have to lose any territory, just be forced to withdraw from non-German territory.
 
Any scenario where Germany wins and is able to extract reparations from France virtually ensures it will not collapse. A German victory will revive popular support for the monarchy (most likely some kind of constitutional monarchy develops given the SPD's loyalty to the regime and their own popularity). Reparations will ease currency issues (not having to pay them alone relieves much of the German budget) so we won't see the economic chaos of OTL.

The Soviets were able to win back much of the Tsarist Empire because it was moving into a power vacuum. An intact Germany with a real army prevents that entirely. Freikorps alone were able to keep the Red Army out of the Baltic states. A real German army anywhere in the East keeps Belarussia and Ukraine independent. Of course, a German army probably won't be kept in the East for very long. Just until those governments stabilize. At which point, the threat of a German army probably keeps the Red Army out.

Austria-Hungary is probably an entirely different story. It'll probably fall apart, although splitting Austria and Hungary will salvage some of it. I could still see the southern Slavs of AH splitting off. But the chances of German intervention is probably low. They had a lot of resentment about being fettered to a corpse. Hapsburgs might be compensated by putting its members on thrones of different countries.

By the time the Soviet Union recovers enough to risk taking on a major power, the situation in Central Europe is probably different enough that it makes no sense to do so. Germany will have recovered enough, and its satellite states in Eastern Europe - Poland, Belarussia, Ukraine, some Baltic Duchy - are probably stable. Germany domination probably doesn't sit well with them, but they do have some kind of national state, and the Soviet Union will be looked at negatively.

The only way I see Germany collapsing after defeating France is if Britain continues the blockade for quite some time. Famine was approaching in Germany, and the Germans will need some time before they can demobilize enough to send troops back to the farms.
 
Austria-Hungary is probably an entirely different story. It'll probably fall apart, although splitting Austria and Hungary will salvage some of it.

Can Hungary really secede? If she tries to, the Croats, Rumanians and Slovaks will presumably want to secede from her, and neither Karl I nor Wilhelm II will have any reason to take the Hungarian side. Will the Hungarian aristos - many of whose biggest estates are in Transylvania - really want to go it alone if the likely consequence is a Trianon-type carve-up imposed from Vienna and/or Berlin instead of from Paris?
 
Well, frankly i'm not that optimistic for Germany going very well in a late war victory; after all is not that the OTL Entente had enjoied a lot of prosperity and quiet time in the first postwar period, so i doubt that in case the CP win things will be so different for them and both the OE and A-H have weaker goverment system than even Italy.

First in any case is not an absolute victory but more a negotiated one, as while the american troops were helpfull but logistical and industrial support was more important; second (and something that always seem to be forgotten) the Hapsburg army tried their version of the Spring offensive in Italy...with the only result to cease to exist as an offensive force, any success in France will mean that the italian army will be forced to launch an offensive against the Austrian to take back the territory in case of any future negotiation.
While this A-H army will probably not quickly collapse as in OTL Vittorio Veneto due to better morale, the supply situation is so bad that prolonged resistance is out of the question and this mean that the southern border of Germany is at risk.

Basically we have a negotiated peace due to both side being exhausted...and this is not a good omen for the stability of their goverment.

Austria-Hungary is on the way of the dodo; at all the pre-war problems now are added the horrible perfomance of the army, the cost of the war (in both blood and treasure), the old system being discredited and the rising of both nationalism and other ideology (communism and fascism) and while Germany will probably prop up (or at least desire prop up) Wien they have themselfs some problem.

Germany will be forced to prop up the A-H Empire, the OE and the new east europe vassal while at the same time experience their version of the 'Biennio Rosso' (the Red Two years) as i doubt that things between Socialist and Junkers will quietly subdue after the war, when the first will want to be 'payed' for the political support and the second will want maintain the old system.
Support for the monarchy...will not be 'all time high' as any conquest had come with a too high price attached and the continuing military expedition in east europe plus communist propaganda and violence will take their tool
 
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