As the title says, what POD can make George W. Bush more moderate as a Republican during his time as Governor of Texas and how would a moderate George W. Bush look? Given his victories in 1994 and 1998, him being a moderate instead of a conservative likely does not affect his chances of being elected, because of the Republican Revolution. How differently would his presidency look? Would he still run a "family values" campaign as a moderate?
 
This is pretty much OTL with the exception of the War on Terror. W's buzzword was compassionate conservative, not family values.

He created a massive new entitlement program, aggressively promoted homeownership (with disastrous results), and proposed an immigration reform that included amnesty.

He enacted tax cuts and deregulation, but you get that from Rockefeller Republicans at least as much as you do from socons. Getting us into large-scale wars is historically not Republican. W and his father gave us the adventures in Iraq, but most other wars on that scale were Democrats (Vietnam, Korea, WW2, WW1). Regardless of the merit of any particular war, the Democrats are historically the war party.
 

Wallet

Banned
In OTL 2017 he's considered a liberal republican. Hell, he's too liberal, he wouldn't win a single primary.
 
Yep, there was a lot of skepticism, fear, and doubt over whether W would actually be a good conservative president, from many conservative circles.

I'm pretty firmly convinced that if you didn't have the Iraq war, you'd have a generationally-strong Republican party that's economically centrist and socially conservative.

His biggest gaffe was simply a misplay, with bad timing. Privatizing social security right at the height of the tech bubble and Enron blew up on him, but if he'd instead made it to where a 1% payroll tax was added in addition to regular SS/Medicare (offset by some other cut or credit elsewhere) that opened the Federal Thrift Savings Program to all workers everywhere, then that is very different from stock picking or speculation. It's widely regarded in the retirement/investing world as the best-designed, ultra-low-cost retirement plan in the world. Besides the timing, his error was to make a portion of the extant Social Security taxes be eligible to go into the program rather than offering workers an additional deferral.
 
I'm pretty firmly convinced that if you didn't have the Iraq war, you'd have a generationally-strong Republican party that's economically centrist and socially conservative.

2006 was a landslide by in large on the Foley scandal more then any other issue. Other issues played a role, but not even the 6 year itch comes close.

The GOP leadership in Congress being seen as on the side of grown men hitting on male teens changed a slight democratic year into a landslide. Look at the generic Congressional ballot in early September (virtually a tie) now look at it in mid to late October.

2008 was decided on the economic crisis full stop. It was issue 1, 2, 3 and 4.

Iraq and the overall war was a meddling issue that hurt social conservatives as it distracted from their message, but it wan't the second political Vietnam of our time it's been sold as because democrats would rather put 2006 and 2008 down to Iraq then the reality of what happened.
 
Last edited:
Have his father get elected President in 1980 instead of Reagan. HW Bush ran as a moderate alternative to Reagan, and if he won the nomination and the Presidency in 1980, your looking at a more moderate Republican Party (and thus a more moderate country overall) in the 80s, 90s, and 00s, and a more moderate GW Bush should he still seek elected office.
 
2006 was a landslide by in large on the Foley scandal more then any other issue. Other issues played a role, but not even the 6 year itch comes close.

The GOP leadership in Congress being seen as on the side of grown men hitting on male teens changed a slight democratic year into a landslide. Look at the generic Congressional ballot in early September (virtually a tie) now look at it in mid to late October.

2008 was decided on the economic crisis full stop. It was issue 1, 2, 3 and 4.

Iraq and the overall war was a meddling issue that hurt social conservatives as it distracted from their message, but it wan't the second political Vietnam of our time it's been sold as because democrats would rather put 2006 and 2008 down to Iraq then the reality of what happened.

Abramoff probably hurt at least as much as Foley. The incompetent response to Katrina hurt the GOP brand. The immigration proposal hurt the Republicans with their base.
 
2006 was a landslide by in large on the Foley scandal more then any other issue. Other issues played a role, but not even the 6 year itch comes close.

The GOP leadership in Congress being seen as on the side of grown men hitting on male teens changed a slight democratic year into a landslide. Look at the generic Congressional ballot in early September (virtually a tie) now look at it in mid to late October.

The scandal broke on September 28. Here are the generic poll numbers for the preceding month:
BattlegroundBattleground 9/24 - 9/27 1000 LV 41 49 Democrats +8
FOX NewsFOX News 9/26 - 9/27 900 LV 38 49 Democrats +11
Hotline/FDHotline/FD 9/24 - 9/26 423 LV 33 46 Democrats +13
ZogbyZogby 9/22 - 9/25 1000 LV 33 42 Democrats +9
CNNCNN 9/22 - 9/24 573 LV 42 55 Democrats +13
CBS News/NY TimesCBS News/NY Times 9/15 - 9/19 1007 RV 35 50 Democrats +15
LA Times/BloombergLA Times/Bloomberg 9/16 - 9/19 1347 RV 39 49 Democrats +10
USA Today/GallupUSA Today/Gallup 9/15 - 9/17 1003 A 48 48 Tie
AP-IpsosAP-Ipsos 9/11 - 9/13 1501 A 39 53 Democrats +14
FOX NewsFOX News 9/12 - 9/13 900 LV 38 41 Democrats +3
NBC/WSJNBC/WSJ 9/8 - 9/11 1009 RV 39 48 Democrats +9
Pew ResearchPew Research 9/6 - 9/10 1191 RV 39 50 Democrats +11
GallupGallup 9/7 - 9/10 925 RV 41 53 Democrats +12
ABC NewsABC News 9/5 - 9/7 1003 A 42 50 Democrats +8
CNNCNN 8/30 - 9/2 1004 A 43 53 Democrats +10
FOX NewsFOX News 8/29 - 8/30 900 RV 32 48 Democrats +16

http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/other/2006_generic_congressional_vote-2174.html#polls

Fourteen of the sixteen polls gave the Democrats at least an eight point lead. I don't deny that the Foley scandal further damaged the GOP, but the overwhelming majority of the pre-Foley polls did *not* show a virtual tie.
 
The scandal broke on September 28. Here are the generic poll numbers for the preceding month:
BattlegroundBattleground 9/24 - 9/27 1000 LV 41 49 Democrats +8
FOX NewsFOX News 9/26 - 9/27 900 LV 38 49 Democrats +11
Hotline/FDHotline/FD 9/24 - 9/26 423 LV 33 46 Democrats +13
ZogbyZogby 9/22 - 9/25 1000 LV 33 42 Democrats +9
CNNCNN 9/22 - 9/24 573 LV 42 55 Democrats +13
CBS News/NY TimesCBS News/NY Times 9/15 - 9/19 1007 RV 35 50 Democrats +15
LA Times/BloombergLA Times/Bloomberg 9/16 - 9/19 1347 RV 39 49 Democrats +10
USA Today/GallupUSA Today/Gallup 9/15 - 9/17 1003 A 48 48 Tie
AP-IpsosAP-Ipsos 9/11 - 9/13 1501 A 39 53 Democrats +14
FOX NewsFOX News 9/12 - 9/13 900 LV 38 41 Democrats +3
NBC/WSJNBC/WSJ 9/8 - 9/11 1009 RV 39 48 Democrats +9
Pew ResearchPew Research 9/6 - 9/10 1191 RV 39 50 Democrats +11
GallupGallup 9/7 - 9/10 925 RV 41 53 Democrats +12
ABC NewsABC News 9/5 - 9/7 1003 A 42 50 Democrats +8
CNNCNN 8/30 - 9/2 1004 A 43 53 Democrats +10
FOX NewsFOX News 8/29 - 8/30 900 RV 32 48 Democrats +16

http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/other/2006_generic_congressional_vote-2174.html#polls

Fourteen of the sixteen polls gave the Democrats at least an eight point lead. I don't deny that the Foley scandal further damaged the GOP, but the overwhelming majority of the pre-Foley polls did *not* show a virtual tie.

Yes you are correct and I commend you for finding such a collection. The Gallup poll showing a tie and most the other polls that had it close I remembered and watched at the time were all around mid September, but that is a much larger and very in-depth collection.
 
Last edited:
Top