AHC: Gary Johnson, Republican Nominee 2012

Exactly what the title says. Your job, should you choose to accept it, is to get Gary Johnson to win the Republican nomination for President, hopefully without calling in the Alien Space Bats.
 
This is hard, this is remarkably difficult. But I suppose that's the point of this. Now, obviously, you need to remove Mitt Romney from the race. So, perhaps we start with a divergence a decade ago. Romney loses in 2002. He's never Governor of Massachusetts, so he never runs for President in 2008, so he never becomes "next in line guy" for 2012. Now, assuming butterflies are light, so the period between 2009-2011 resembles what actually happen, we need to go a bit further. Let's further say that the actual next in line guys from 2008 do not enter the race. Leaving the nomination wide open. Let's say that Ron Paul doesn't enter the race, and Johnson picks up his support, and Paul's able to have the majority of his supporters vote for Johnson. You would have a situation in which the Republican Party lacked an obvious front runner, arguably for the first time. Thanks to division within the party, and a lot of luck, Johnson wins the nomination.

Essentially, it's impossible.
 
I was thinking about this just the other day. The problem is that he had been out of government totally since 2002. Perhaps he can become a U.S. Senator, and in so doing build more of a national presence and organization?
 
Bush loses in 2000. Gore winds up doing many of the same things as Bush with respect to fighting terrorism, which in turn gives a shot in the arm to the libertarian wing of the party as the GOP decries Gore's expansion of executive power with Johnson a leading voice of opposition. Johnson becomes the head of the libertarian wing rather than Ron Paul. Economy implodes in 2007/8 as in OTL, Jeb Bush runs and wins. Bush mainly continues the Gore policies, which draws a Johnson primary challenge due to that and a poorer than OTL economy. Primary challenge succeeds with a party facing all but certain defeat in '12 and which smells a rerun of 1992. Johnson is nominee.
 
In 1998, Clinton is impeached as OTL. He launches Desert Fox as OTL...then a Republican on the judiciary committee remembers Hussein Kamil's interview. A new charge is brought, but as the others, it fails in the senate.
Impeaching Clinton over Iraq divides the Republican Party. While Bush earns the nomination as OTL, he loses support from a number of "Taftite*" Republicans and does not come close to a majority in Florida. Gore is sworn in. 9/11 happens. Republicans make gains in 2002, increasing their majority.
McCain easily defeats Gore in 2004, thanks to swing voters. McCain launches his "Rogue State Rollback" plan by launching an invasion of Iraq, using Hussein's support for terrorists as the pretext for war. The invasion succeeds, though the insurgency begins as a result and goes much as OTL. Democrats gain House and Senate in 2006. In 2008, the McCain administration launches an airstrike on the Roki Tunnel in South Ossetia and provides US air support for the Georgian forces. Between Russian air and air defense forces being deployed to the Caucasus (resulting in the loss of several US aircraft), and backlash from the US siding with Georgia (after reports confirm that the Georgian Government ordered the attacks on South Ossetia that started the whole thing), the US mission in Georgia becomes extremely controversial. As a result, McCain (and Lindsey Graham, his VP), loses to Obama/Biden.
Obama/Biden face opposition from Republicans from the beginning, but one of the most significant is the operation in Libya. While the interventionist Republicans praise Obama (or criticize him for not intervening sooner), the Taftites, joined by a few "Wallaceite**" Democrats like Dennis Kucinich, Paul Wellstone and Cindy Sheehan call for Obama's impeachment for violating the War Powers Act and lying to Congress. Impeachment fails, but the damage is done. Aided by Ron Paul's endorsement and internet support, Johnson narrowly ekes out a win in the primaries over Romney and Santorum.

* A term of my invention based on the term below. Named, of course for Robert Taft, "Mr. Republican".
** A term coined by the New Republic's Peter Beinart, to attack those who did not support his foreign policy views. (Ironically he was attacking the predecessor as TNR editor, Henry Agard Wallace.)
http://www.tnr.com/article/politics/fighting-faith
 
Pete Domenici has a health scare after 9/11 and decides not to run again. Popular New Mexico governor Gary Johnson emerges as the consensus nominee for U.S. Senate. He wins, and handily wins reelection in 2008 despite Obama carrying his state by a significant margin. Senator Johnson runs for president.
 
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