AHC: Gandhi dynasty lives

Let's game 3 scenarios if either Indira, Sanjay or Rajiv live.

Indira: The Lok Sabha must be dissolved by January 1985 for another federal election, which might mean a sharply reduced Congress majority. Alternatively, as in 1980, she plays up the need for "one pair of hands on the wheel" and wins another landslide, then hands over to Rajiv in early 1986. Method of survival: takes RAW director's advice to transfer VIP protection to the Army, or transfers her Sikh guards to another posting.

Sanjay: A Marcos wannabe with all the intellect of Paris Hilton can only mean disaster. If he gets the PMO by 1986, then I can see India going downhill very quickly. High risk of an assassination attempt, can easily see him going paranoid and not going anywhere without a Special Forces company in trail. Will attempt to remove all economic controls and boot up a free-market economy. Keep in mind that of the Congress Class of 1980, 234 of 351 are freshman MPs, many with minimal quals, and at least 150 are incorrigible Sanjay fanboys/girls. How long he remains in power depends on the electorate's patience and the emergence of a credible opposition. Method of survival: lands the Pitts S-2 instead of looping at too low an altitude.

Rajiv: As per OTL, a Congress minority coalition or a slim majority. Will implement Singh/Rao's NEP with Singh at Finance, reorientation of foreign policy towards the West by the mid-1990s after the Soviet Union falls. Following this path should keep him in power as long as he wants to remain in office. Method of survival: rain cancels the rally.
 
I'll try with Sanjay.

To put it short, India is fucked up big time.

Assuming that Sanjay would have secured a lasting grip on the Congress (I), the first thing he would do is making sure that the men and women behing the 1977 State of Emergency Act would not be exposed to any lawsuit and he would have tried to destroy, by any means, the opposite factions which had splited from the Congress at the time, espaclailly the Congress (U) led by Urs. The independance of the Judiciary might not survive this.

I also guess he would have enforced President's Rule in every state not ruled by its allies. Tamil Nadu, Western bengal (unless he manages to win CPI and CPI-M neutrality, and of course Punjab come to my mind. He might, or not, support the radical opponents to Akali Dal within the Sikh Community, but the possibility of a Sikh conflict is quite high. Tensions might also rise in Assam if Sanjay sticks with his pro-Hindi, centralist inclinations.

Economically, I guess Sanjay would have followed the populist, authoritarian plan of 1978-1979. While the planned land reforms might have a positive outcome if the new tenants are efficient (and might lower support for the Naxalites from the Tribes and the Backward Classes in Bihar, Orissa and Bengal), the enforcment of the Family Planning would have been rocky, and the industrial base of India would have been kept in private monopolies, without any major liberalization. And, of course, corruption would have known a golden age.

Although I doubt Sanjay would have toyed with communalism, I suspect he would have puffed up Hindi nationalism to gain further support in Northern India, a weak point for Congress in the early 1980's. I doubt, however, that he would have prevented the rise of the nationalist members of the Janata Dal who later created the BJP.

The main opposition to Sanjay would ultimately come from an alliance between the nationalists (I guess the RSS would be stronger than OTL, iven if banned), the classical liberal, higher castes faction of the Janata Dal (the old SP, to be clear), and the regionalist parties, especially the DMK, and the Telugu Desam if created. If Sanjay keeps an authoritarian policy on States, terrorism might flourish in Punjab, Assam and Eastern States, maybe even in the Dravidian South.

Probably hardline on Kashmir. Would stick with the non-alignement policy. Probably more hostile to the USA than his mother, too, especially under the Reagan Administration.
 
That's what I'm looking for, though I certainly wouldn't want India to be inflicted with a Sanjay premiership. Now, anyone care to try Rajiv or Indira separately?
 
Actually, I could see Sanjay trying to out-flank the BJP and taking Congress well to the right on communal matters.

As for Rajiv? I imagine he'd serve from 1991 through 1996, and while Congress would probably go through a period of weakness in the late '90s/early '00s as in RL, it probably is stronger. So maybe he heads a couple short-lived minority or coalition governments between 1996 and 2000, and probably then returns to power in the mid-2000s. So he's probably PM even today. (He'd STILL be younger than most leading Indian politicians.)

Indira? I really have no idea, so I'm not going to even venture a guess at that one.
 
One of Rajiv's problems was that he didn't persevere with anything. He went for limited economic liberalization- an eyedrop of Thatcherism. Then by 1988, as the next election approached he was accused of running a government by and for the rich, so an unholy amalgam of that and his mother's populism which only worsened the economy in a last-ditch attempt to salvage a minority government (coming quite close too) from the Bofors thermonuking. Most notoriously, trying to simultaneously appease Hindu and Muslim fundies in the Shah Bano case, which caused a collapse of one of Congress' historic base constituencies, namely minorities of all classes, especially secular middle-class ones when the media called him on it. Both his grandfather and mother told fundies of all stripes exactly where they could get off, he didn't. ITTL he needs to persists with Rao/Singh's NIP, perhaps with Singh in Finance and Rao at Trade and Industry with a mandate to permanently dismantle the Licence Raj.
 
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