As the title said: is somehow possible, with a PoD after 1970, that the War of the Yom-Kippur can be transformed into a full nuclear escalation between NATO and Warsaw Pact ? It is one of the turning point in history that is rarely taken into account so im a bit curious of how the thing could evolve.
AHC: Full East/West nuclear escalation during 1973 Yom-Kippur war.
- Thread starter Malanic
- Start date
Son of Leman Russ
Banned
Have these things happened in really quick successions...
1) Have Israel as the one who actually launch the attack first, more like quick pre-emptive attack that going too well (So the Soviet Union will be less reluctant to support the Arabs with Nukes, they have policy to use it for 'defensive' purposes. America start the nuclear escalations is nigh impossible because their Presidents actually must cultivate political support with the civilians, instead of bureaucratic oligarchy)
2) Have their pre battle preparations actually reversed as well, this is also Ramadan, so the Israeli attack ends up killing innocent civilians.
3)Israel not only quickly seize control of OTL golan & etc, but press much to Lebanon, and in Egypt, to the other edge of Suez.
4) Have Israel do much better than expected (but with them on the attack instead of defense as IOTL), so they will have enough arrogance to not following the inevitable UN calls for ceasefire.
5) Soviet threaten them with Nuclear Strike if they do not put a cease fire, Israel are arrogant enough not to follow it even after USA threaten to withdrawn their supports (they won't, only baseless threatening as usual).
6) Soviet army reinforcements are sent to help the Arabs, they drop tactical nukes to Israeli troop concentrations...
7a) The rest is history... unless...
7b) US government finally decides they're tired with the Jewish lobby and basically say to Israel "You asked for it". Palestine will be founded as Arab nation, with Soviet later catch a lot of international flak about nuclear weapon usage... I can actually predict earlier, much earlier revolution in eastern Europe, but USSR won't fall outright, just crippled because at least communism will be popular in the Arab / (Formerly) Islamic world.
1) Have Israel as the one who actually launch the attack first, more like quick pre-emptive attack that going too well (So the Soviet Union will be less reluctant to support the Arabs with Nukes, they have policy to use it for 'defensive' purposes. America start the nuclear escalations is nigh impossible because their Presidents actually must cultivate political support with the civilians, instead of bureaucratic oligarchy)
2) Have their pre battle preparations actually reversed as well, this is also Ramadan, so the Israeli attack ends up killing innocent civilians.
3)Israel not only quickly seize control of OTL golan & etc, but press much to Lebanon, and in Egypt, to the other edge of Suez.
4) Have Israel do much better than expected (but with them on the attack instead of defense as IOTL), so they will have enough arrogance to not following the inevitable UN calls for ceasefire.
5) Soviet threaten them with Nuclear Strike if they do not put a cease fire, Israel are arrogant enough not to follow it even after USA threaten to withdrawn their supports (they won't, only baseless threatening as usual).
6) Soviet army reinforcements are sent to help the Arabs, they drop tactical nukes to Israeli troop concentrations...
7a) The rest is history... unless...
7b) US government finally decides they're tired with the Jewish lobby and basically say to Israel "You asked for it". Palestine will be founded as Arab nation, with Soviet later catch a lot of international flak about nuclear weapon usage... I can actually predict earlier, much earlier revolution in eastern Europe, but USSR won't fall outright, just crippled because at least communism will be popular in the Arab / (Formerly) Islamic world.
I think there's a fine line between "overconfidence" and "utter numbnuts", and that's the line between 4) and 5) in the above scenario. I'm guessing that Israel wouldn't push the situation if the Americans threaten to withdraw their aid, but still hold out hope for an ever better settlement for them.
Son of Leman Russ
Banned
Yeah, I know, to escalating the Yom Kippur war to nuclear war absolutely requires the madness to be on the Side of Israel. The Arabs, even if they actually end up much more successful and or mad than OTL, is quite unlikely to provoke a nuclear war. More like USSR distanced itself from the Arabs and gave permission to Americans to do some coordinated strategic and tactical bombings.
And with the reverse scenario ? One where the arabs troops going to obtain what they want so Israel is forced in using nuclear weapons to "stabilize" the front (attacking the logistic route as well) ? This will require better equipment and better training from Soviet Union as minimum and probably a different leadership i suppose.
Egypt and Syria might decide to emply chemicals against israeli troops (maybe hitting with them some populated villages) and doing so opening the way for another wave of nuclear attacks this time against industrial targets.
In short, gradual escalation.
Egypt and Syria might decide to emply chemicals against israeli troops (maybe hitting with them some populated villages) and doing so opening the way for another wave of nuclear attacks this time against industrial targets.
In short, gradual escalation.
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So, generally, the stakes aren't high enough for either the US or the USSR to consider nuclear action against each other, as opposed to on the Arabs or Israelis?
Is it anywhere within the realm of possibility that one side pulls some kind of James Bond bullshit and fakes a nuclear strike on a border region to justify retaliation?
Is it anywhere within the realm of possibility that one side pulls some kind of James Bond bullshit and fakes a nuclear strike on a border region to justify retaliation?
Son of Leman Russ
Banned
And if Israel use nukes, and Arabs use chemical weapons... there is only a little, little chance of USA and USSR to antagonize each others directly.
Both USA and USSR will phone each others, agreed to simply withdrawn their supports / condemnation for BOTH sides. Basically calling them both "Have fun guys, call us later if you want some humanitarian help AFTER you both exhausted... We'd love to study the effects of the aftermath of a nuclear war again anyway... So go, have fun..."
Sure: A Very Bad Year (1973)
(although it involves a heavily-stacked deck, including James Eastland as POTUS, Dean Rusk as Secretary of State, and Mikhail Suslov as Soviet Premier)
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