AHC: French Victory in the Italian Wars

The Italian Wars stretched from 1494 until 1559 and involved almost ever significant power in Europe at one time or another. In the end the Habsburgs emerged victorious and they would remain the dominant power in Italy for centuries after.

My challenge/question is if and at what point in time the French could plausibly emerge victorious in these conflicts. By victorious i mean to a similar degree to what the Habsburgs were able to achieve i.e. control of the majority of the peninsula. Any lesser degree of success would be interesting as well.

Additionally, I was wondering what some of the impacts of this would be for all the involved powers. How does this change the marriage calculus for the Valois and Habsburg dynasties. Can a single person rule both Spain and the HRE without control of Naples and the Mediterranean Islands. So on and so forth.
 
The Italian Wars stretched from 1494 until 1559 and involved almost ever significant power in Europe at one time or another. In the end the Habsburgs emerged victorious and they would remain the dominant power in Italy for centuries after.

My challenge/question is if and at what point in time the French could plausibly emerge victorious in these conflicts. By victorious i mean to a similar degree to what the Habsburgs were able to achieve i.e. control of the majority of the peninsula. Any lesser degree of success would be interesting as well.

Additionally, I was wondering what some of the impacts of this would be for all the involved powers. How does this change the marriage calculus for the Valois and Habsburg dynasties. Can a single person rule both Spain and the HRE without control of Naples and the Mediterranean Islands. So on and so forth.

It depends which one. An early control of Naples and some spots in Northern Italy by Charles VIII means a really weakened Spanish power in the Mediterranean. Control of the Milanese by Francis Ist means continuing warfare with the Habsburg, but on different battlefields.
 
It depends which one. An early control of Naples and some spots in Northern Italy by Charles VIII means a really weakened Spanish power in the Mediterranean. Control of the Milanese by Francis Ist means continuing warfare with the Habsburg, but on different battlefields.

My reason for not specifying had to do with an interest in learning what the differences might be depending on the different time periods.

If we start with Charles VIII, what would it take for him to emerge victorious in his Italian War, and retain Naples. Would it be enough for him to simply live longer? Would he be challenged on his conquest, and if yes, to what degree and by who? Would the Habsburgs (and predecessors) be able to run their realm effectively without control of Naples and with unfriendly control of Naples? Would the french be able to hold Naples in either the short or the long term?

With Louis XII, what would it take for him to win, I.E. with Naples under his control, or Milan under his control, or both. What about if the any of the treaties of Granada, Lyon, or Blois are not negotiatied, would this lead to war between Spain and France? What might the outcome be at this point. Is it possible for Louis to emerge victorious and in control of Naples? What would the effects be of this?

With Francis I there are several different opportunities. What if he wins Pavia, or is not decisively defeated? Would the Ottoman-Valois alliance still occur without the negotiations surrounding his capture? Is it possible for the Valois to win this conflict? If they win the war of 1521-1526 what would their plausible gains be? What would the effects be of Francois III of Brittany and Henri II not experiencing their imprisonment be? How might it change their personalities, and would it create the possibility of Francois I being succeeded by his eldest son? The later conflicts all have similar elements, though what would the effects be of French control of Milan, where would the battlefield then be?

There are a bunch of different changes that could occur in the war with Henri II, but I am mostly interested in the ones mentioned above. Is it possible for the French to really beat the Habsburgs? Do they have the resources and ability to compete and beat them out for leadership?
 
bump. I would like to know what kind of effect French victory in the 1520s would have on Habsburg policy? would they focus more on Europe than their growing American empire? I'm certain that this would be a step towards making France's empire less overseas and more continental.
I hope this isn't too late for a necro.
 
This is going to need multiple PODs to get the French to win in the 1500s. Just as by 1942, it would take multiple PODs to get the Nazis to win the Eastern Front. No "eh, change a battle here" would work, you would need to invoke a chain of improbable events.
 
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