AHC: French trajectory without Franco-Prussian War?

A surviving French Empire has a good chance of butterflying away the Napoleon IV-Beatrice union, but there is a chance the match will be pushed for political purposes (i.e., closer ties to the UK and increasing Bonaparte legitimacy).

Agreed. The Bonapartes and Victorians actually got along fairly well as two families as well, so it's not too far fetched of an idea either. That Napoléon and Beatrice got along so well IOTL gives a good indication of the same possibility ITTL.
 
Without the Franco-Prussian War, Napoleon III will rule until 1874 at best since he planned to abdicate when his son Napoleon IV would have come of age (18). He might still be dead in 1873 in my opinion, as he suffered from urinary calculi and died while they were trying to got rid of one: it wasn't something simple at the time, even though medicine had greatly evolved.

Napoleon IV has two possible wives: there were talks about him marrying Princess Beatrice, youngest daughter of Queen Victoria. However, Beactrice was Victoria's favorite daughter and the Queen showed quite protective of her. Given Victoria and Napoleon III's wife, Eugenie, got along quite well, it's possible she might give her consent though.
The second possibility is a daughter of Isabella II of Spain, Infanta Maria de Pillar. Rumors, not all untrue, said Napoleon IV was quite attached to her.
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Maria de Pillar - the one who died aged 18? Do we know what of? How would that have affected him, assuming they had been married when she was 16, as was the case with another of Isabella II's daughters?

That would be 1877, so there COULD be an heir by 1879 if she dies "on time". It depends really on why she died aged only 18

Best Regards
Grey Wolf
 
Maria de Pillar - the one who died aged 18? Do we know what of? How would that have affected him, assuming they had been married when she was 16, as was the case with another of Isabella II's daughters?

That would be 1877, so there COULD be an heir by 1879 if she dies "on time". It depends really on why she died aged only 18

Best Regards
Grey Wolf

By the looks of it, the most likely cause was Tuberculor Meningitis (though I'm translating from spanish using a mixture of Google and a knowledge of French here so the exact wording might be off).
 
By the looks of it, the most likely cause was Tuberculor Meningitis (though I'm translating from spanish using a mixture of Google and a knowledge of French here so the exact wording might be off).

Would that be something that has a long-term cause, or something which you contract and then kills you quickly? As in, if she had married at 16 and gone to live in Paris, would she (probably) have escaped it?

Best Regards
Grey Wolf
 
Would that be something that has a long-term cause, or something which you contract and then kills you quickly? As in, if she had married at 16 and gone to live in Paris, would she (probably) have escaped it?

Best Regards
Grey Wolf

Really, I haven't the foggiest. There appear to be at least 5 different ways to contract it, including several ones which involve spreading from other forms of TB (I think we can rule those out). The Bacteria which causes it (Microbacterium Tuberculosis) can lie dormant for years, will only ever affect 10% of those who catch it, and the symptoms can last for years undiagnosed before actually killing the person. She may well already have had it at 16.
 
Interesting I would like to read such a timeline. I wonder if the french demography would be any different?
Hello Xgentis,....don't mean to toot my own horn but check out my TL: "Rubber, Revolutionaries, Republicans, & a young man named Bonaparte". Tell me what you may think. In mine, the demography of France will be somewhat different. Cheers, Joho:)
 
I'm working on a TL with the assumption of a surviving Second Empire.
I planned the following political scene in early 1890's:
- Revolutionnaries (anarchists, blanquists, marxists...)
- Parti Républicain [Clemenceau]
- Union Sociale-démocrate [Tolain]
- Parti Libéral
- Liberal Bonapartists [Prince Jerome Napoléon]
- Authoritarian Bonapartists[Cassagnac]
- Legitimists
Hello & greetings galileo-034. If you are interested, please check out my TL called: "Rubber, Revolutionaries, Republicans, & a young man named Bonaparte." I am hoping that a French person who may know much more about French History than I do could give a good critique especially if I have made too many anachoristic mistakes. I have intertwined a fictional account mixed with some historical facts to describe what happens if the Paris Commune had survived and what happens next. I look forward to a modern French person's opinion and views on what I have done with/to your country's history. I look forward to your reply. Cheers, Joho:)
 
Here's a wild guess at how the political dust settles c. 1895 or so if the monarchists and republicans sort themselves along policy lines. Given the Third Republic's crossaisle consensus on foreign and imperial policy, I'm assuming that remains the same ITTL, at least initially.

Libéral: secular, constitutional monarchist, economically and socially liberal.

National: (Conservateur) pro-clerical civic and economic nationalists.

Socialiste: primarily republican, unless the competition throws up a leader like Dizzy.

Eventually the Liberal and Nationalist/Conservative parties probably swap economic ideologies as happened in the UK and US IOTL IMO.


Xgentis: I asked a couple of weeks ago if anyone wrote a Third Empire TL. Robert wrote a great one, but it only goes up to the 1890s or so. Certainly hope that one of our French specialists here takes this up.

It's on the way...."Rubber, Revolutionaries, Republicans, & a young man named Bonaparte." I plan on going from 1871-1990ish with alternate French history with POD of the Paris Commune not only does not fall but ends up taking over the entire country of France. Joho:)
 
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