AHC: French trajectory without Franco-Prussian War?

Using the usual POD, Napoleon ignoring the Ems Telegram, how would France develop under the Bonapartes? IIRC in the last discussion there was a mention that he would abdicate and transfer power to his 21-year old son, who was a liberal Anglophile. Does Nappy IV manage to transition France into a proper constitutional monarchy without too much obstruction? What policies would he pursue both domestically and internationally?
 

Anaxagoras

Banned
Napoleon III improved as his reign went on, and perhaps we can assume that Napoleon IV would have continued along the same lines. Considering the economic and colonial expansion that France experienced in the first decades of the Third Republic, despite the heavy indemnity paid to Prussia after the war, we can hope that France would have done even better had the rule of the Bonapartes continued.
 
Louis-Napoléon planned to abdicate and pass the throne to his heir Napoléon who would become of age four years after the OTL Franco-Prussian War. Even at this early stage there was talk of a marriage between Napoléon and Queen Victoria's youngest daughter Princess Beatrice. Indeed after the two met they were fanatically devoted to each other; it's said that cried for weeks after his premature death IOTL.

However, as much of an Anglophile a Napoleon IV might have been, as Louis-Napoléon had already handed over much of the reigns of the country to the Senate the composition of the French political space without the Franco-Prussian War and subsequent Paris Commune would have been far more important. The Monarchist, Socialists, and Republicans would all have continued to clash and pull France in three different directions; something would have had to have given at some point. A rebellion or attempted revolution would be very likely before the 20th century, and even if the initial coup didn't succeed the other two groups would attempt to fill the power vacuum. The Bonapartist really had very little support in France by the time of Franco-Prussian War.
 
I agree. We see a more rigorous and expansive French presence on the world stage. The German states still move towards union, albeit slower and less tightly knit.
 
Best-case scenario is for the continued liberalization of the Second Empire and furthering of ties with Britain.

Further cemented by his marriage to Princess Louise, so you one-up the Entente Cordiale 30+ years before the OTL one.

Foreign policy-wise, I assume he partakes in the Scramble as the Third Republic did IOTL.

Domestically, does he go his father's route or does he go the Gladstonian one: economic and social liberalism?

Also, what happens to the Legitimists and republicans? The republicans become a fringe minority once a proper constitutional monarchy is set up and due to his popularity?

What about military reforms? Robert covered that quite extensively in his TL. As a Sandhurst officer he'd probably take a close personal interest in that.

Finally: French political parties. Would we see a Catholic statist-conservative party, a secular liberal party and a socialist and/or communist party?
 
Interesting I would like to read such a timeline. I wonder if the french demography would be any different?
 
Here's a wild guess at how the political dust settles c. 1895 or so if the monarchists and republicans sort themselves along policy lines. Given the Third Republic's crossaisle consensus on foreign and imperial policy, I'm assuming that remains the same ITTL, at least initially.

Libéral: secular, constitutional monarchist, economically and socially liberal.

National: (Conservateur) pro-clerical civic and economic nationalists.

Socialiste: primarily republican, unless the competition throws up a leader like Dizzy.

Eventually the Liberal and Nationalist/Conservative parties probably swap economic ideologies as happened in the UK and US IOTL IMO.


Xgentis: I asked a couple of weeks ago if anyone wrote a Third Empire TL. Robert wrote a great one, but it only goes up to the 1890s or so. Certainly hope that one of our French specialists here takes this up.
 
Also, what happens to the Legitimists and republicans? The republicans become a fringe minority once a proper constitutional monarchy is set up and due to his popularity?/QUOTE]

Well, the Comte de Chambord dies in 1883, and in this TL was never reconciled with the Comte de Paris (from what I can gather the reconciliation was never very sincere anyway) so former Legitimists might rally to Napoleon IV, on ther basis that a Bonaparte was no worse than an Orleans.
 
Well, the Comte de Chambord dies in 1883, and in this TL was never reconciled with the Comte de Paris (from what I can gather the reconciliation was never very sincere anyway) so former Legitimists might rally to Napoleon IV, on ther basis that a Bonaparte was no worse than an Orleans.

The Legitimists were the most reactionary of the conservatives, so its hard for me to imagine them joining with the populist, centrist, 'upstart' Bonapartists. At least the Orléanist were 'proper' royalty.
 
I'm working on a TL with the assumption of a surviving Second Empire.
I planned the following political scene in early 1890's:
- Revolutionnaries (anarchists, blanquists, marxists...)
- Parti Républicain [Clemenceau]
- Union Sociale-démocrate [Tolain]
- Parti Libéral
- Liberal Bonapartists [Prince Jerome Napoléon]
- Authoritarian Bonapartists[Cassagnac]
- Legitimists
 
Ropp's work on the development of the French Navy is actually very interesting in describing how the history of French colonialism developed too, including how a lot of those pushing it were from the republican side of what was still a divided spectrum and were doing it for republican ideals

Best Regards
Grey Wolf
 
Without the Franco-Prussian War, Napoleon III will rule until 1874 at best since he planned to abdicate when his son Napoleon IV would have come of age (18). He might still be dead in 1873 in my opinion, as he suffered from urinary calculi and died while they were trying to got rid of one: it wasn't something simple at the time, even though medicine had greatly evolved.

Napoleon IV has two possible wives: there were talks about him marrying Princess Beatrice, youngest daughter of Queen Victoria. However, Beactrice was Victoria's favorite daughter and the Queen showed quite protective of her. Given Victoria and Napoleon III's wife, Eugenie, got along quite well, it's possible she might give her consent though.
The second possibility is a daughter of Isabella II of Spain, Infanta Maria de Pillar. Rumors, not all untrue, said Napoleon IV was quite attached to her.

The Second Empire will probably continue to liberalize in this scenario, which will lead to a more democratic regime. Maybe the Second Empire ends up as a Britain-style Parlementarian Monarchy as a result, althoug I suspect the Emperor would still have a lot of power.

The Colonial Policy of the Second Empire might follow a different path that the one chosen by the Third Republic though: Napoleon III expanded the rights of the Algerian Natives and apparently planned for indirect rule of the colony. Maybe Napoleon IV will do so with his colonies?

galileo-034 said:
I'm working on a TL with the assumption of a surviving Second Empire.
I planned the following political scene in early 1890's:
- Revolutionnaries (anarchists, blanquists, marxists...)
- Parti Républicain [Clemenceau]
- Union Sociale-démocrate [Tolain]
- Parti Libéral
- Liberal Bonapartists [Prince Jerome Napoléon]
- Authoritarian Bonapartists[Cassagnac]
- Legitimists

To this lead, I'll had the Orleanists: though the Legitimists were the main group, I think it's likely to see a Legitimist-Orleanist split up like OTL. If the two branches didn't reconcile like OTL though, the Legitimist side might be larger than it is, and as a result the Orleanist weaker.
 
Here's a wild guess at how the political dust settles c. 1895 or so if the monarchists and republicans sort themselves along policy lines. Given the Third Republic's crossaisle consensus on foreign and imperial policy, I'm assuming that remains the same ITTL, at least initially.

Libéral: secular, constitutional monarchist, economically and socially liberal.

National: (Conservateur) pro-clerical civic and economic nationalists.

Socialiste: primarily republican, unless the competition throws up a leader like Dizzy.

Eventually the Liberal and Nationalist/Conservative parties probably swap economic ideologies as happened in the UK and US IOTL IMO.


Xgentis: I asked a couple of weeks ago if anyone wrote a Third Empire TL. Robert wrote a great one, but it only goes up to the 1890s or so. Certainly hope that one of our French specialists here takes this up.
Can I have a link for the TL? I have no idea who Robert is.
 
To this lead, I'll had the Orleanists: though the Legitimists were the main group, I think it's likely to see a Legitimist-Orleanist split up like OTL. If the two branches didn't reconcile like OTL though, the Legitimist side might be larger than it is, and as a result the Orleanist weaker.
The Legitimists, very conservatives, remain a distinct political entity, while the Orleanists will dissolve themselves into the Liberal Party.
 
The Legitimists were the most reactionary of the conservatives, so its hard for me to imagine them joining with the populist, centrist, 'upstart' Bonapartists. At least the Orléanist were 'proper' royalty.

I was assuming that Napoleon IV would prove to be his mother's boy rather than his father's, and move significantly to the right on becoming Emperor. Iirc Eugenie was more "Clerical" than her husband.
 
Without the Franco-Prussian War, Napoleon III will rule until 1874 at best since he planned to abdicate when his son Napoleon IV would have come of age (18). He might still be dead in 1873 in my opinion, as he suffered from urinary calculi and died while they were trying to got rid of one: it wasn't something simple at the time, even though medicine had greatly evolved.

As I understand it, though, he had had this problem for some time even before his overthrow. If still on the throne, he probably delays the operation till the following year, when it most likely kills him as OTL.
 
I was assuming that Napoleon IV would prove to be his mother's boy rather than his father's, and move significantly to the right on becoming Emperor. Iirc Eugenie was more "Clerical" than her husband.

Having read a biography of her, I got the impression that she was an extremely liberal woman, particularly in her youth, who would have preferred a more liberal france with a constitutional monarchy, but felt that the circumstances of Napoleon III's rise to power precluded attempts by him to make major reforms as they would severely destabalise his rule.

With Napoleon IV, it seems virtually guarenteed that, particularly if Napoleon III dies at a similar time to OTL (which as mentioned above is quite likely), there would be a degree of liberalisation.

There had been an incident in her youth when she'd been witness to riots in the streets of Madrid in which IIRC there had been some violence commited by Priests.
 
One thing to note regarding Beatrice is that I assume (and since I've not looked it up, then yes it could make an ass of me) that the young Napoleon and her got closer after the Bonapartes were exiled to Britain, which clearly won't be happening here. I can't imagine they saw much of each other before that?

Best Regards
Grey Wolf
 
One thing to note regarding Beatrice is that I assume (and since I've not looked it up, then yes it could make an ass of me) that the young Napoleon and her got closer after the Bonapartes were exiled to Britain, which clearly won't be happening here. I can't imagine they saw much of each other before that?

Best Regards
Grey Wolf

A surviving French Empire has a good chance of butterflying away the Napoleon IV-Beatrice union, but there is a chance the match will be pushed for political purposes (i.e., closer ties to the UK and increasing Bonaparte legitimacy).
 
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