ASB in my opinion with a POD after 1763. The most realistic route might be a successful La Pérouse discovering the North Pacific shores while France escapes the Revolution as we know it and becomes a constitutional, parlementary monarchy. Avoiding the demographic slump consecutive to the revolutionary and napoleonic wars, France might settle for an agreement with Russia to colonise the zone (fish trade first, then lumber and various commodities) with a mix of French settlers and Acadian refugees, with the agreement of the United States which, although far from the Pacific shore at the time, may be wary from British actions in the area. A Métis nation emerges during the 19th century by intermarriage of French people with local tribes, attracting also English-speaking, Russian, possibly Chinese and Japanese immigrants from 1850 onwards. Becomes independant from France at some point during the 19th century, maybe after a war lost during the German or Italian unification process, maybe after a revolution in mainland France, maybe after a victorious fight for independance.