AHC: Franco-Prussian War in the 1850s

Maybe the internal situation in France remains more tense after the 48 revolution. Say the new president (the later Napoleon III.) tries to push a fairly conservative reaction faster and further than otl. To divert the attention he restarts the Rhine Crisis in early 49. In Germany the Frankfurt parliament reacts harshly and offer the Prussian King overall military command instead of offering him the crown or at least they emphasize this reason. Thus due to popular pressure and the threat he is unable to turn them down completely. Things spirale out of control from there.

The level of power is more even than twenty years later: Industrialisation is not as far advanced in Germany, the faster growing population is not as felt yet and the Prussian army (and by extension the minor German ones) are still organised after the old Landwehr system, thus average training of reservists is less. Several doctrine changes also still lack and the equipment is less superior (the needle gun just starts to get adopted for example). OTOH some core advantages of the German military thought, like Führen durch Auftrag and a modern officer corps are already in place, while the French army has barely changed at all since Napoleon I.

Furthermore the international situation is very difficult for the German side: Austria would not like a Prussian-led Germany at all and Russia will dislike the possible entrenching of the German revolutionaries in government such a war might allow. OTOH the Russians won´t like the French either and Britain might favour the at this time still weaker than later Germany.
 
You'd need to change what happens in 1848-1849. Probably have the Habsburg Empire collapse and the Prussian King accept a German imperial throne. I'm not sure if that's at all plausible, but a Franco-Prussian war in a world with a dualistic Germany isn't going to work.
 
Challenge: Have the Franco-Prussian War happen in the 1850s instead of at 1870.

Get rid of Lamartine in the 1848 revolutions and have the Second Republic become much more belligerent and expansionist (that was certainly the fear when it was founded), talking about a 'return to the Rhine' or something. Have Austria collapse as in OTL, but Prussia successfully crushes uprisings in its territory, especially the Berlin insurrection. Frederick William IV is now controlled by the forces of reaction, who react harshly to liberal insurrections in the rest of Germany.

Seeing this, maybe a few revolutionaries fleeing from Prussia/Germany regroup in France in order to bring revolution to the German states. They are openly supported by the French government, who is also supporting revolutionary incursions into Belgium/Switzerland. Given this, the Prussian government demands that the French hand these revolutionaries over, and Paris refuses. War then breaks out between France and Prussia.
 
Seeing this, maybe a few revolutionaries fleeing from Prussia/Germany regroup in France in order to bring revolution to the German states. They are openly supported by the French government, who is also supporting revolutionary incursions into Belgium/Switzerland. Given this, the Prussian government demands that the French hand these revolutionaries over, and Paris refuses. War then breaks out between France and Prussia.
I don´t think this would work since a (or even the) key motivation for the German nationalist movement was security from France, especially from its desire for the Rhine border. Only the most radical republicans might be willing to ally with a French state openly talking about that and they would immediately loose most of their support in Germany. Thus they would not cause a major diplomatic incident, but be pretty much ignored since they would pose less of a threat to the German monarchs than Jesse James did for the existence of the US after the ACW.
 
The :prussian army mobilised in 1859 forcing Napoleon III to end the war with Austria for fear of a Prussian intervention. Supposing he hadn't and Prussia declared war.
 

raharris1973

Gone Fishin'
Donor
Monthly Donor
The :prussian army mobilised in 1859 forcing Napoleon III to end the war with Austria for fear of a Prussian intervention. Supposing he hadn't and Prussia declared war.

A sloppier war on both sides. The Prussians are behind their OTL 1871 performance by far, but the French are not that sophisticated or fresh either. Hard to say where things end up. Maybe it would be short, or maybe it could be a prolonged stalemate leading to social instability on one or both sides.
 
Prussia mobilised in support of Austria in 1859 Napoleon chose to negotiate peace with Austria after Solferino. But if he hadn't and Prussia intervened here is your Franco Prussian War
 

Redbeard

Banned
I suppose you could someway have the international situation around the 1st Slesvig-Holsten War in 1848-51 escalate.

This war started as a S-H rebellion against Danish rule. From 1848 to mid 1850 Prussia and a number of German states took actively part in the war on S-H side, but after international pressure withdrew in 1850.

I guess you could have a PoD where after Prussia violate some international agreement and France utilise the moment to intervene.

In OTL I think the Russians and British were more actively interested in the situation than the French were, but I suppose we could for a moment imagine a French strategic foresight saying: "We've gotta' get'em while we can!"

Regards

Redbeard
 
Maybe the internal situation in France remains more tense after the 48 revolution. Say the new president (the later Napoleon III.) tries to push a fairly conservative reaction faster and further than otl. To divert the attention he restarts the Rhine Crisis in early 49. In Germany the Frankfurt parliament reacts harshly and offer the Prussian King overall military command instead of offering him the crown or at least they emphasize this reason. Thus due to popular pressure and the threat he is unable to turn them down completely. Things spirale out of control from there.

The level of power is more even than twenty years later: Industrialisation is not as far advanced in Germany, the faster growing population is not as felt yet and the Prussian army (and by extension the minor German ones) are still organised after the old Landwehr system, thus average training of reservists is less. Several doctrine changes also still lack and the equipment is less superior (the needle gun just starts to get adopted for example). OTOH some core advantages of the German military thought, like Führen durch Auftrag and a modern officer corps are already in place, while the French army has barely changed at all since Napoleon I.

Furthermore the international situation is very difficult for the German side: Austria would not like a Prussian-led Germany at all and Russia will dislike the possible entrenching of the German revolutionaries in government such a war might allow. OTOH the Russians won´t like the French either and Britain might favour the at this time still weaker than later Germany.

The :prussian army mobilised in 1859 forcing Napoleon III to end the war with Austria for fear of a Prussian intervention. Supposing he hadn't and Prussia declared war.

Prussia mobilised in support of Austria in 1859 Napoleon chose to negotiate peace with Austria after Solferino. But if he hadn't and Prussia intervened here is your Franco Prussian War

The last thing Louis-Napoleon, later known as Napoleon III, was a war of this kind so soon. He was very wary about not antagonizing Europe like his uncle did. It's why he elected not to continue the war against Austria.

Also, he did not begin the war without ensuring the neutrality of Russia, Great Britain and Prussia. About Prussia, they were initially favouring the French but that became less true as William I, hostile to Napoleon III, became Regent.
 
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