AHC: Franco 'joins Allies' June/Sept 1944

[Curiousone]

So say Franco is concerned that after Hitler he might be next, wants to be counted in the winners column post WW2, get on the W/Allies good side.

June 6, he's given news that the Allies have landed in Normandy (D-Day).

June 9, his military advisors tell him the window of opportunity the Germans might have had to throw back the landings have closed, the W/Allies will inevitably take France.

That afternoon he goes on the Radio, calls for, Spanish citizens in Axis countries to 'return to the homeland' in these troubled times. What transport can be arranged to speed the evacuation is arranged.

Sometime between the Operation Dragoon landings (Aug 15), Falaise Pocket (shrinking at that time) & the meet up of Allied armies from Dragoon & Overlord at Dijon on the 11th of September Fascist Spain declares war on Nazi Germany.

Sure, there's likely to be little military effect. Hitler will probably have a tantrum, maybe the Spanish can shell some border posts & there's might be some interesting interaction between FFI (Free French/French Resistance) and Spanish troops but I wouldn't expect more. Ports in Spain might help with Allied supply problems.. but there was a huge shortage of rolling stock (rail freight) in post-war Spain anyhow so I wouldn't count on it too much. The W/Allies won't really want much to do with Franco's forces, they're second rate & would only clog the roads so I'd see them pulling back to the border as soon as W/Allied forces arrive.

A quick google search of posts on this site doesn't quite show up this scenario, there's a lot of 'What if Spain joins the Axis (they rely on supplies from the Allies, an Allied advance through the Spanish mountains would be a pain..)?' etc. On commenter noted Spain might be in for a bit of Marshall Aid post-war, the Soviets would be even less happier about the W/Allies post-war.

So, thoughts? Plausibility, Reactions, Effect?

 

[Anaxagoras]

That afternoon he goes on the Radio, calls for members of the Blue Division fighting on the Eastern Front, Spanish citizens in Axis countries to 'return to the homeland' in these troubled times. What transport can be arranged to speed the evacuation is arranged. Men are picked up, equipment left behind.

Franco had already done this in 1943.

 

[Curiousone]

Franco had already done this in 1943.

That simplifies things. Fair enough, he doesn't need to use the period June 9 - Aug 15 recalling Spanish people in the Third Reich, he can simply use the time preparing for a short cross border assault.

 

[Ariosto]

Stalin wanted the Allies to invade Spain following the collapse of Germany, so to say that he will be pissed at the British and Americans is a bit of an understatement. Honestly not sure how the immediate situation will develop however, given I'm not all that confident that Francoist Spain can make any meaningful military contribution on the part of the Allies.
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[MattII]

If this happens before Dragoon, the Allies can throw even more aircraft into that operation. Hells, maybe with Franco's help they don't even need Dragoon, maybe they can hit the French Atlantic coast.

 

[Paul V McNutt]

Spain is a charter member of the UN.

 

[jach79]

Spain had the ideology and the motives to support Hitler but they lacked the resources: no funds, communist pockets aorund the country and so on.

 

[mattep74]

Franco sends an envoy to UK in March 1944 saying he is willing to become fully allied.

If allies accept they send the troops in Sardinia to Catalonia.

And on June 7 one day after the alllies have landed in Normandy the Southern offensive begins.

Stalin wanted a second front, now he have four fronts(Italy, Southern France, Normandy and russia).

 

[Curiousone]

Franco sends an envoy to UK in March 1944 saying he is willing to become fully allied.

If allies accept they send the troops in Sardinia to Catalonia.

And on June 7 one day after the alllies have landed in Normandy the Southern offensive begins.

Stalin wanted a second front, now he have four fronts(Italy, Southern France, Normandy and russia).

My guess is with that plan the Nazi's find out, attack Spain early & it involves letting W/Allied troops access to Spain proper where they can put the regime to hostage by giving aid to the surviving rebels.

The idea I had in mind was more of doing what Turkey did. Wait until German troops are cut off from your country & then declare war in the knowledge you won't have to wage any of the war.

 

[The Red]

The idea I had in mind was more of doing what Turkey did. Wait until German troops are cut off from your country & then declare war in the knowledge you won't have to wage any of the war.

The thing is the allies would see this from a mile away as Spanish opportunism, whilst Turkey had remained strictly neutral the Spanish had been fighting a quasi-war against the Soviets, and thus the Allies, since 1941. Though feeble, the Spanish army likely could have some minor success against the disintegrating German forces in Spain but it's not going to win them any special treatment whilst there are still Falangists fighting in Latvia and Yugoslavia.

 

[Blackfox5]

Any declaration of war would likely need to be done in coordination with the Allies. Simply declaring war on Germany doesn't mean the Allies accept you as one of them. And if the Allies don't want Spain as one of them, Franco gets no benefit from the DoW.

Franco was associated with Fascism and Hitler in the public mind. When the Allies cooperated with Admiral Darlan, it caused a huge furor. Both the American and British population will not look kindly to taking Franco as an ally. They want to keep their idealism pure, and cooperating with Franco is in essence validating his regime. It would cause a huge scandal. Neither Washington nor London would appreciate a Spanish entry into the war especially by 1944 as it won't be needed.

Furthermore, Franco does run some political risk in his own country. It would be unpopular with some important members of his ruling coalition. Not only those who were sympathetic to Hitler, but those who might not like the Nazis, but still appreciated their help in the Civil War and don't like this kind of betrayal.

 

[JimTheB]

There was a military airbase at Palma de Mallorca that might have been useful-ish for supporting Dragoon, but the timing was prolly a bit late for that. Hard to see what else Franco could bring to the party at this point.

 

[Rich Rostrom]

So say Franco is concerned that after Hitler he might be next, wants to be counted in the winners column post WW2, get on the W/Allies good side.

June 6, he's given news that the Allies have landed in Normandy (D-Day).

June 9, his military advisors tell him the window of opportunity the Germans might have had to throw back the landings have closed, the W/Allies will inevitably take France.

That afternoon he goes on the Radio, calls for, Spanish citizens in Axis countries to 'return to the homeland' in these troubled times. What transport can be arranged to speed the evacuation is arranged.

Sometime between the Operation Dragoon landings (Aug 15), Falaise Pocket (shrinking at that time) & the meet up of Allied armies from Dragoon & Overlord at Dijon on the 11th of September Fascist Spain declares war on Nazi Germany.

Franco is cold and ruthless, but also cautious. He knows that such a policy would offend a huge block of his most loyal supporters. It would be seen by them as betrayal of the allies who helped save Spain from the Reds.

It could lead to his overthrow, and he would never risk that.

As for what Spain could bring to the table:

• The immediate shutdown of all Axis espionage in Spain, though by late 1944 that's not much of a problem.
• Spanish airspace opened to Allied overflights. This is really only useful for flights between Britain and Gibraltar, Morocco, and Portugal; not important by late 1944.
• Use of Galicia and the Canary Islands for ASW; not important by late 1944.
• Release of any Allied personnel interned in Spain. I don't think there were many, and also by that time Spain was being cooperative about releasing them anyway, I think.
• Use of Spanish ports to land supplies for the armies in France. Minimally useful; Spanish ports are a long way from the front and there's a shortage of locomotives and rolling stock to move the stuff by rail; also the French rail system is damaged. It might be useful to land stuff at Barcelona for shipment up to Marseille and the Allied right flank. Marseille is closer and bigger, but was not usable for another few weeks I think. But that's a very narrow window.
• Assistance in rounding up the Germans cut off in SW France. Not a big deal.
• Spanish forces for the fight against Germany. Not wanted or trusted, and if Franco tried it, he'd really be in trouble.

So not much, really.

While it's true that Francoist Spain was widely viewed as a de facto fascist ally of the Axis, officially Spain was neutral, and its declaration of war on Germany would be accepted. Italy, Finland, Romania, and Bulgaria all declared war on Germany; they became 'co-belligerents'. Spain would be accepted as such, though few would consider the move more than rank opportunism and possibly a fake of some kind.

 

[Alien and Sedition Bat]

Franco was not as ideological as the hard-core Falangists and he may have gone along with sending the Blue Legion to fight with Hitler on the Eastern Front as a way, among other things, of getting them out of his hair and forestalling further pressure from Hitler to join the Axis. Let's say Franco figures, once the U.S. joins the war, that the jig is up, and decides to join the Allies quick in order to avoid being overthrown after the Allied victory. If he chooses to join the Allies in early fall of 1942, Spain could be very useful in the invasion of North Africa by providing air bases.

(Ike and the British were not able to sell Marshall in OTL on a landing close to Tunisia because of (a) the fear that Spain might join the Axis and somehow barricade the Allied expeditionary force inside the Med and (b) the inability of the Allies to get enough planes into the theater fast enough to provide air cover for a landing in or near Tunisia. Both these concerns would be erased by having Spain as an ally.)

Spain could also be useful by providing bases in the Canaries for hunting U-boats, and by helping to persuade Portugal to provide bases in the Azores. Bases in the Balearics could be useful in taking Sardinia and Corsica early, thus increasing the pressure on Italy to turn around, possibly earlier than in our timeline. Also it might be possible to bring the Spanish armed forces up to snuff so they could play a role in Italy comparable to that of the Brazilian Expeditionary Force although on a somewhat larger scale--and by providing an "army in being" to divert a modest number of German troops from opposing Overlord and Dragoon. Furthermore, Spain cutting off the wolfram to Germany and blocking Germany's subs from huddling along the Spanish and Portuguese coastlines would be quite useful. All and all a big plus for Spain after the war, and don't expect Stalin to be very upset--when Ike chose to make a deal with the fascist Darlan in North Africa, Stalin agreed with Churchill that Ike had done the sensible thing. Stalin would huff and puff about Franco after the war, but only for show.

All this presumes a certain prescience on the part of Franco. ASB? He certainly had enough prescience, unlike Mussolini, to avoid joining the Axis on the Western front even in OTL.

The weakness in this scenario is that Hitler might invade Spain and take his vengeance. In the fall of 1942, the Allies couldn't have done very much to defend Spain (unless they felt that Spain could be a kind of "second front" to modestly divert German troops from the Eastern front) and the promise of generous aid from the West would probably have to mean aid AFTER the war. So Franco wouldn't join the Allies before the battle of Normandy unless he could persuade himself that Hitler was too bogged down elsewhere to come after him.

 

[tallthinkev]

I should think '44 is too late. A better bet would be in '42 maybe around the time or Operation Torch.

 

[Curiousone]

Franco was not as ideological as the hard-core Falangists and he may have gone along with sending the Blue Legion to fight with Hitler on the Eastern Front as a way, among other things, of getting them out of his hair and forestalling further pressure from Hitler to join the Axis. Let's say Franco figures, once the U.S. joins the war, that the jig is up, and decides to join the Allies quick in order to avoid being overthrown after the Allied victory. If he chooses to join the Allies in early fall of 1942, Spain could be very useful in the invasion of North Africa by providing air bases.

(Ike and the British were not able to sell Marshall in OTL on a landing close to Tunisia because of (a) the fear that Spain might join the Axis and somehow barricade the Allied expeditionary force inside the Med and (b) the inability of the Allies to get enough planes into the theater fast enough to provide air cover for a landing in or near Tunisia. Both these concerns would be erased by having Spain as an ally.)

Spain could also be useful by providing bases in the Canaries for hunting U-boats, and by helping to persuade Portugal to provide bases in the Azores. Bases in the Balearics could be useful in taking Sardinia and Corsica early, thus increasing the pressure on Italy to turn around, possibly earlier than in our timeline. Also it might be possible to bring the Spanish armed forces up to snuff so they could play a role in Italy comparable to that of the Brazilian Expeditionary Force although on a somewhat larger scale--and by providing an "army in being" to divert a modest number of German troops from opposing Overlord and Dragoon. Furthermore, Spain cutting off the wolfram to Germany and blocking Germany's subs from huddling along the Spanish and Portuguese coastlines would be quite useful. All and all a big plus for Spain after the war, and don't expect Stalin to be very upset--when Ike chose to make a deal with the fascist Darlan in North Africa, Stalin agreed with Churchill that Ike had done the sensible thing. Stalin would huff and puff about Franco after the war, but only for show.

All this presumes a certain prescience on the part of Franco. ASB? He certainly had enough prescience, unlike Mussolini, to avoid joining the Axis on the Western front even in OTL.

The weakness in this scenario is that Hitler might invade Spain and take his vengeance. In the fall of 1942, the Allies couldn't have done very much to defend Spain (unless they felt that Spain could be a kind of "second front" to modestly divert German troops from the Eastern front) and the promise of generous aid from the West would probably have to mean aid AFTER the war. So Franco wouldn't join the Allies before the battle of Normandy unless he could persuade himself that Hitler was too bogged down elsewhere to come after him.

1942 land campaign in Spain? It's often very mountainous country, easily defended. I see the Germans getting some of the way but not all of the way, the W/Allies slowly moving through but finding it slow going, having to spend a lot of their shipping feeding the population. Some German troops are bogged down, but not enough for what the Soviets need in the form of a second front.

A lot like.. Italy.

 

[Alien and Sedition Bat]

As I recall, the Italian campaign did have a significant effect on the Eastern Front. Hitler took troops (or planes?) from the Battle of Kursk to respond to the invasion of Sicily. And some of the German troops captured in Tunisia might otherwise have ended up at Kursk.

 

[Alien and Sedition Bat]

Clarification re Tunisia

Ike and his advisors recognized that to land in or near Tunisia, the invasion of Morocco on the Atlantic Coast would have to be junked. All the Allied forces would have to come into the Med. Hence the concern of the military brass in Washington that Franco might suddenly join Hitler and allow the Germans to come down and seize Gibraltar, thus leaving the Allied forces in western North Africa in a very exposed position. And remember that when this was being discussed the Germans had not yet been defeated in Egypt. In hindsight, Marshall's worries might seem excessive, but at the time the U.S. forces were still very weak, with Torch being more of a British show. And the British weren't all that strong either. Plus the U-boats were still on the rampage, their defeat six months in the future.

 

[katchen]

Franco is cold and ruthless, but also cautious. He knows that such a policy would offend a huge block of his most loyal supporters. It would be seen by them as betrayal of the allies who helped save Spain from the Reds.

It could lead to his overthrow, and he would never risk that.

As for what Spain could bring to the table:

• The immediate shutdown of all Axis espionage in Spain, though by late 1944 that's not much of a problem.
• Spanish airspace opened to Allied overflights. This is really only useful for flights between Britain and Gibraltar, Morocco, and Portugal; not important by late 1944.
• Use of Galicia and the Canary Islands for ASW; not important by late 1944.
• Release of any Allied personnel interned in Spain. I don't think there were many, and also by that time Spain was being cooperative about releasing them anyway, I think.
• Use of Spanish ports to land supplies for the armies in France. Minimally useful; Spanish ports are a long way from the front and there's' a shortage of locomotives and rolling stock to move the stuff by rail; also the French rail system is damaged. It might be useful to land stuff at Barcelona for shipment up to Marseille and the Allied right flank. Marseille is closer and bigger, but was not usable for another few weeks I think. But that's a very narrow window.
• Assistance in rounding up the Germans cut off in SW France. Not a big deal.
• Spanish forces for the fight against Germany. Not wanted or trusted, and if Franco tried it, he'd really be in trouble.

So not much, really.

While it's true that Francoist Spain was widely viewed as a de facto fascist ally of the Axis, officially Spain was neutral, and its declaration of war on Germany would be accepted. Italy, Finland, Romania, and Bulgaria all declared war on Germany; they became 'co-belligerents'. Spain would be accepted as such, though few would consider the move more than rank opportunism and possibly a fake of some kind.

I could see both Spain and Portugal being valuable for the fight against Nazi Germany for a different reason. Brazil attempted to put together a force to fight Hitler. The Brazilians were finally only able to field a brigade of 20,000 troops. The problem was that many Brazilians were illiterate and Brazil did not have enough officers. If Portugal had joined the fight against Hitler, many more Brazilians could have fought under Portuguese colors.
Similarly, Spain could have a major impact. While it's manpower is limited because it is recovering from it's civil war, the Spanish Army could accept many recruits from Latin American nations that are allied with the US but lack the wherewithal to field armies against Hitler. We're talking about Mexico, much of Central America, Colombia, Venezuela, Peru, Chile, Uruguay. These fresh troops, all Spanish speaking of course, could fight under Spanish colours and act as a force multiplier for Spanish troops. And if the Spanish are not entirely trusted in the European theatre, they can be transported to the Pacific Theatre along with Latin Americans and free up more Americans to fight in Europe.
Though this would probably result in a huge postwar immigration of Spanish to Latin American countries.