AHC: Franco German Friendship

[VadisDeProfundis]

With a PoD no earlier than 1856, have a Unified Germany and a France governed by a republican government, be allied militarily(bonus points for economically and even culturally). Extra cookies and more bonus points if their eventual alliance grows into something like the later European Community and includes other great powers like an alt-Italy or the Habsburg Empire, in any form they may take. Maybe an earlier, larger and alternate Latin Monetary Union could help, maybe they could unite against a common threat(Anglo Russian alliance?).

 

[FillyofDelphi]

With a PoD no earlier than 1856, have a Unified Germany and a France governed by a republican government, be allied militarily(bonus points for economically and even culturally). Extra cookies and more bonus points if their eventual alliance grows into something like the later European Community and includes other great powers like an alt-Italy or the Habsburg Empire, in any form they may take. Maybe an earlier, larger and alternate Latin Monetary Union could help, maybe they could unite against a common threat(Anglo Russian alliance?).

An Anglo-Russian alliance is one of the most mind boggling and unnatural match ups you could have in Europe, and only makes sense in the face of needing to counter a hegemonic force in the center of the continent. While a Franco-German alliance fits that bill, it's only slightly less unlikely creating the chicken and egg problem: either one would only form in the event the other formed first

 

[VadisDeProfundis]

An Anglo-Russian alliance is one of the most mind boggling and unnatural match ups you could have in Europe, and only makes sense in the face of needing to counter a hegemonic force in the center of the continent. While a Franco-German alliance fits that bill, it's only slightly less unlikely creating the chicken and egg problem: either one would only form in the event the other formed first

Maybe the Sepoy rebellion goes much worse for the British, and they can not afford the great game anymore? Conversely, the Crimean war is much more of a total disaster for Russia, in a way that it isn’t the British humiliating them so that they can later forge an alliance but at the same time they are not in a position to continue the great game on their end.

 

[ArchimedesCircle]

Not sure how likely this is, but I'll try.

Austria wins in Italy in 1859. They restore the monarchs of central Italy as puppets of Vienna and curtail Sardinian influence in the region. France is humiliated and Austria continues its reactionary policies, while France is seen as a crusader for national unification. Whatever PoD let the Austrians do this (maybe Bach doesn't ignore military industry while he's in power) also lets them beat the Prussians (and maybe the Sardinians, who are likely itching for a third round with Austria). Prussia loses, preferably decisively, and the Austrians cement their position as hegemon of the southern German states. Germany is still formed, but without Bavaria, Wurtemburg, Baden, Saxony and maybe Silesia- basically a slightly smaller version of the North German Federation, but without the pretense of not just being a bigger Prussia.

Meanwhile butterflies cause Napoleon, Prince Imperial to die around this time. Napoleon III has no more children and dies soon after his son, his grief exacerbating his historical health issues. The emperor's death so soon after the heir's death throws the succession into chaos, which the Republicans use to stage a coup and take power, declaring the Third Republic in the late 1860s.

Without a border with Alsace-Lorraine, there's likely to be a lot less noise over irredentists in this alternate Germany. Germany and France ITTL also have a common enemy- Austria (or Austria-Hungary, they still might do this to placate the Magyars). Meanwhile the Austrians remain too focused on keeping north Italy and southern Germany as their playground to make much fuss about the Balkans. They make some gains and make sure that the states bordering them sign treaties of neutrality with Austria, but mostly they keep their focus west, preventing conflict with Russia.

Ultimately Europe erupts into a war between the liberal(ish) nationalists and the reactionary imperialists, with the sides being the Western Powers (Germany, France, Sardinia) and the Imperial Allies (Austria/Austria Hungary, Russia, whatever balkan satellites Russia has and maybe Spain if butterflies give the Carlists a victory there). Britain stays neutral, but the fighting is ferocious. By the end of the war the Allies collapse into exhausted nation-states, and Italy and Germany are fully unified. Due to spending so much blood and treasure fighting alongside France, the French claims on Alsace Lorraine are conveniently ignored when Germany makes their territorial demands at the peace. France, Germany and Italy work together to rebuild the shattered remnants of the Eastern European empires (and maybe Spain) into friendly regimes through their political and economic guidance. Everything is going well, until the great Eastern Revolution births the United Socialist Republics of the Intermarium...

 

[FillyofDelphi]

Maybe the Sepoy rebellion goes much worse for the British, and they can not afford the great game anymore? Conversely, the Crimean war is much more of a total disaster for Russia, in a way that it isn’t the British humiliating them so that they can later forge an alliance but at the same time they are not in a position to continue the great game on their end.

That dosen't give any reason for them to make any kind of binding alliance. It just means they aren't bitter rivals. Even if we assume the French and British colonial rivalry actually becomes competitive as a result of the British power in India slipping that bad (Though, if the British lose such power in India their position as a Great Power with the ability and inclination to projection competition without making up for their crown jewel elsewhere), there's still the Ottoman Empire dispute to worry about and no naturally aligning intererests, Unless, of course, we're talking about a very unique Crimean War scenario...

Alright, maybe I have an idea. Let's say the British don't back the Turks in the Crimean War, but instead France and Sardinia commit much more fully and instend to rip Russia down and turn the Sultan into a powerful regional ally (Say Nappy III due to some differences in his past becomes a Turkophile. Maybe he ends up as an honored guest in Constantinople during his young adult days as opposed to London following his Orleans-imposed exile?) The war is longer, but he manages to pull Prussia in following a decisive out-flanking of the Russian forces in the Crimean before they can get into Svestapol and establishing firmly that Austria isen't going to back Russia up. The war ends with territorial settlements for more amicable to the Ottomans and a liberation of Poland (A liberal ideal pet project of Nappys) that cripples Russia alongside a major indemity, and the resulting power reshuffle gets the now highly Franophilic court in Constantinoiple back in control of Egypt directly (Thus replacing French influence with British).

 

[funnyhat]

I see this being possible only with Alsace-Lorraine having a huge German or French majority, .

This depends on what you mean by majority here. IOTL most of that territory was Germanic-speaking but many people wanted to remain part of France anyway.

 

[Undeadmuffin]

i dont know why you focus so much on Alsace-Lorraine.
It never was part of any German unification planning, hell, just remove nappy 3 from the picture and his ludicrous demand for the Rhine state and the Franco-Prussian war never happen. From there either a Prussian state want a slice of Africa and team-up with France against the Brits or have Austria causing problem with an Italy that France consider as part of its influence sphere and your Franco-German friendship is born.

 

[FillyofDelphi]

i dont know why you focus so much on Alsace-Lorraine.
It never was part of any German unification planning, hell, just remove nappy 3 from the picture and his ludicrous demand for the Rhine state and the Franco-Prussian war never happen. From there either a Prussian state want a slice of Africa and team-up with France against the Brits or have Austria causing problem with an Italy that France consider as part of its influence sphere and your Franco-German friendship is born.

Austria is not suicidal and won't be picking a fight with France, a united Germany, and Italy at the same time, and Prussia is too poor to invest in a large colonial and naval empire against GB's wishes with the 400 pound grizzly to her east necessitating a massive army.

 

[Max Sinister]

Someone recreates Charlemagne's empire, if that counts? Although I can't see Nappy III doing that. His uncle maybe...

 

[Odinson]

WW I ends in a stalemate in 1918 with both sides exhausted. Alsace-lorain is turned into a neutral buffer state. Imperial Germany and France form an alliance with the UK against the fascist powers of Italy under Il duce, Spain under Marshall sanjurno, and the Empire of Japan. The Soviet Union gets too adventurous in the Baltic, triggering a war against communism and in the process, solidifies the Franco German alliance that forms the basis of the Euro Economic Pact in the late 1970s.

 

[Arcavia]

Depending on how loose you're willing to play with the definition of a republican government, d day fails and the Soviet juggernaut sweeps to the Pyrenees would do the trick

 

[Deleted member 109224]

Briand and Streissman worked towards a Federal Franco-German western Europe prior to the passing of the former. I assume it'd start as just France, Germany, BeNeLux, and Austria then grow to expand the Baltics, Poland, and the little entente states. Hungary, Italy, Spain, and Portugal would be trickier...


Otherwise, Perhaps Prussia annexes Bohemia and Austrian Silesia following the Austro-Prussian War and German nationalists are promptly satiated enough that Bismarck has the political capital to avoid hassling France during the Luxembourg Crisis (likely on condition that Napoleon III publicly proclaims to abandon all desire for the Palatinate).

Bismarck then assists French efforts to dominate Italy and West Africa (a nice distraction) as the German Empire consolidates at home.

 

[FillyofDelphi]

Otherwise, Perhaps Prussia annexes Bohemia and Austrian Silesia following the Austro-Prussian War and German nationalists are promptly satiated enough that Bismarck has the political capital to avoid hassling France during the Luxembourg Crisis (likely on condition that Napoleon III publicly proclaims to abandon all desire for the Palatinate).

Bismarck then assists French efforts to dominate Italy and West Africa (a nice distraction) as the German Empire consolidates at home.

This kind of delicate compromise "cutting of the cake" between two powers who's natural security and economic zones of interest bump up against one another and where neither one is strong enough to dominate the other rarely last very long. They require a very high degree of trust and stability in the relationship between governments to work, and given policies within states tend to shift based on changes in the figures in power and events elsewhere everybody knows it. I don't care how full and gentle the bear seems for now; I'm not going to make a policy of living next to his cave without a rifle at my bedside and one eye open while I sleep.

Or, to paraphrase Du Gaulle "Nations have no eternal allies, only eternal interests."

 

[Nivek]

Beer pulled it...just no nappy 3 and the chances go higher if a worse fashoda happens

 

[Green Painting]

My first reaction was, to make geopolitical enemies unite, their must be a common exterior foe. France had been keeping Germany down and disunited for centuries, only a strong Russia may force the two nations to unite, just like in 20th century.

 

[Deleted member 109224]

Napoleon III and Bismarck were friendly-ish before 1866. Just find a way to keep the Bordeaux Agreement.

 

[Dan Handsome]

My first reaction was, to make geopolitical enemies unite, their must be a common exterior foe. France had been keeping Germany down and disunited for centuries, only a strong Russia may force the two nations to unite, just like in 20th century.

I'd say Russia closing in on Prussia is the most likely scenario. It's what brought the post-WW2 German buffer against the Soviet's mindset, but I don't see a Russian Empire being that threatening. Not with retaliation from all of Europe. The only other power forcing such an alliance would be Britain. Possibly trying to push its influence onto the continent.