AHC: Franco-German Alliance

To us, historical common sense would dictate that France and Germany have always been destined to be enemies on the world stage. Both powers, at least before WWII, had vested interests in keeping the other weak, and for the entirety of the existence of a united Germany, France was its primary antagonist. What if this wasn't the case? Is it possible to have had a central Franco-German bloc in Europe, opposed by Austria, Britain, and Russia?
 
The main issue is that they border each other across the territory with the highest density of people, resources, and riches in all of Europe. If both France and Germany are both ruled from a single power centre (ideally located right around that middle area), or share some other important unifying factor at the highest level of government (dynastic, ideological). They they could work together.
Otherwise, they will compete and back and forth steal the borderlands away from each other.

So Frankish Empire/HRE that never divides (or another such incarnation), an international revolution, or one side goes completely Napoleon Style on the other.
 
The main issue is that they border each other across the territory with the highest density of people, resources, and riches in all of Europe. If both France and Germany are both ruled from a single power centre (ideally located right around that middle area), or share some other important unifying factor at the highest level of government (dynastic, ideological). They they could work together.
Otherwise, they will compete and back and forth steal the borderlands away from each other.

So Frankish Empire/HRE that never divides (or another such incarnation), an international revolution, or one side goes completely Napoleon Style on the other.

There's a timeline called Union and Liberty that sees France and Germany ally. In part, this happens because different diplomacy in the 1830's results in the Netherlands holding onto Limberg. That, along with independent Baden and Wurttemberg means that France and Germany have a much shorter border, and less antagonism as a result.
 
Bavaria inherits Baden and proceeds to become a third power in Germany. In the 1820s, Bavaria-Baden, Wurrtemberg, Hesse-Darmstadt, and Hesse-Kassel (the mid-size states referred to as the "Third Germany") form a customs union separate from Prussia and Austria.

Come 1848, the Frankfurt Parliament offers the Crown of a Unified Germany to the King of Bavaria rather than the King of Prussia. France supports the unification of the third Germany, seeing it as a good way to prevent an Austrian or Prussian dominated Germany. Prussia goes to war with Germany in order to prevent a liberal German Unification and to defend the Rhineland, which is revolting in support of Kleindeutscheland. France, in the spirit of liberty, marches to defend the German Revolution. Propagandists and Romantics alike refer to this as France's second bid to unify the German people (the first being the Confederation of the Rhine). France and Germany are allies henceforth.

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Alternatively, Bismarck accepts the Danish offer to join the German Confederation in 1864. When the Austro-Prussian War breaks out, Denmark takes the Prussian side in exchange for being allowed to incorporate Holstein into Denmark (albeit as an autonomy). Having irked the German nationalists and with Prussia not being able to annex Schleswig-Holstein TTL, Bismarck is unable to resist demands that Prussia annex Bohemia and Austrian Silesia following TTL's Austro-Prussian War. The North German Federation TTL includes Denmark, who is about as autonomous within this Germany as Bavaria was in OTL.

France annexes the Palatinate in the meanwhile, as he doesn't have the political capital to stop them. Likewise, in 1867 he keeps his promise made at Biarritz not to interfere with France over Luxembourg but his compromise is being allowed to accept Baden into the North German Federation (OTL he blocked Baden's entry). This is followed by the entry of Hesse-Darmstadt. Upon the annexation of Baden and Hesse-Darmstadt, the NGF proclaims itself the German Federation with the Prussian Kaiser as President.

With all of Europe mistrustful of the expansionistic French and Germans, the two countries ally together.



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France will not ally with a Prussia-led Germany that annexes Bohemia and gets as OTL control over the southern German States (Bavaria, Wurtemberg, Baden).

Such a Germany would coalise France, Britain, Russia and the rest of Austria-Hungary against it.

This is precisely why Bismarck was able to convince his king to propose moderate peace terms to Austria.

Basically, France and Germany allying is possible if France obtains a not all but a large part of territories west of the Rhine : Belgium, Luxemburg and Saarland. If it does not and remains on friendly terms with Germany, this good relationship will crumble as the gap in power widens between the 2 countries.

Balance of powers is what will secure lasting friendly relations between Germany and France.
 
France will not ally with a Prussia-led Germany that annexes Bohemia and gets as OTL control over the southern German States (Bavaria, Wurtemberg, Baden).

Such a Germany would coalise France, Britain, Russia and the rest of Austria-Hungary against it.

This is precisely why Bismarck was able to convince his king to propose moderate peace terms to Austria.

Basically, France and Germany allying is possible if France obtains a not all but a large part of territories west of the Rhine : Belgium, Luxemburg and Saarland. If it does not and remains on friendly terms with Germany, this good relationship will crumble as the gap in power widens between the 2 countries.

Balance of powers is what will secure lasting friendly relations between Germany and France.

In my scenario France has Palatinate, Luxembourg, and Saarland.

Prussia meanwhile has ostractized Wurrtemburg and Bavaria, who are strongly aligned with Austria.
 
In my scenario France has Palatinate, Luxembourg, and Saarland.

Prussia meanwhile has ostractized Wurrtemburg and Bavaria, who are strongly aligned with Austria.

Palatinate is of secondary interest for France compared to Belgium-Luxemburg. It would make the French eastern frontier far more nightmarish to defend than its OTL frontier already was.

Every government was aware of what Bismarck had done to Austria with the danish duchies in 1864-1866. Palatinate alone would be seen as quite the same trick. It’s only interest for France would be for Palatinate to be a deeper buffer to protect Belgium-Luxemburg and northern Alsace.
 
The main issue is that they border each other across the territory with the highest density of people, resources, and riches in all of Europe.
The Netherlands did avoid being conquered for a large amount of time despite being in this same wealthy area.
 
Palatinate is of secondary interest for France compared to Belgium-Luxemburg. It would make the French eastern frontier far more nightmarish to defend than its OTL frontier already was.

Every government was aware of what Bismarck had done to Austria with the danish duchies in 1864-1866. Palatinate alone would be seen as quite the same trick. It’s only interest for France would be for Palatinate to be a deeper buffer to protect Belgium-Luxemburg and northern Alsace.

So here's a more detailed idea of what I'm going for.

  1. In my proposed scenario, Denmark retains all of Schleswig and ultimately annexes Holstein as an autonomous province. This, however, is all contingent on Denmark remaining within the German Confederation (and later North German Federation).
  2. Bismarck still meets with Napoleon III at Biarritz and makes the same promise as OTL: French supremacy in Belgium and Luxembourg.
  3. Denmark retained Schleswig as part of being in the Confederation and the King of Denmark remains Monarch over Holstein. Denmark integrates Holstein (albeit as an autonomous entity) due to siding with Prussia against Austria.
  4. Because of Prussia being seen as having made some concessions to Denmark, Bismarck is unable to resist the German Nationalist urge for a Prussian annexation of Bohemia-Silesia at the end of the Austro-Prussian War.
  5. Prussian desire for Bohemia nearly prompts an international crisis/intervention, but instead Napoleon III moderates the peace as he did OTL. TTL his hand is stronger, and he's able to push for a French acquisition of the Southern Rhenish Triangle
  6. Prussia handing Palatinate to France (or so its seen in Munich) earns the eternal enmity of Bavaria, at least for a generation. Wurrtemburg, in the Bavarian lockstep, also is opposed to Prussia.
  7. Bismarck in 1867 is more concerned about angering France. He cannot afford to let France annex more of what are seen as German lands, so he supports the Austrian proposal of OTL: France will purchase Luxembourg but transfer the country to Belgium. In exchange, France will gain some lands from Belgium (I'm thinking the lands France lost at Vienna plus a French Hainaut). To sweeten things for the Belgians, France also cede French Guiana and will compensate Germany for a transfer of Eupen, Malmedy, and Sankt Vith to Belgium. Neutral Moresnet will also be annexed by Belgium.
  8. What does Germany get out of the above deal, in which it cedes territory to Belgium and must leave Luxembourg? France assets to a German absorption of Baden and Hesse-Darmstadt into the North German Federation. Shortly afterwards, the name is changed to the German Federation.
Britain forces an international crisis as well over the matter of Denmark (the issue probably being ironed out at the same conference as Luxembourg). Britain is understandably freaked out by a Prussian-led power with the Danish Fleet that controls Nicobar Islands, Virgin Islands, Iceland, Greenland, and the Faroes. I think the simple solution would be establishment of either a Kingdom of Iceland that controls Iceland, Greenland, and the Faroes that would either be independent or part of a wider Nordic Confederation (Sweden-Norway-Iceland?) that could serve as a kind of check/balance on Prussia. As for the Danish fleet, that might be trickier for the Germans/Danes to hand over. Maybe it's given to Sweden-Norway-Iceland or to Independent Iceland (who proceeds to be unable to afford it, meaning it rots slowly over time).

Maybe something like this.

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Alt. 1870/1?
Prussia takes nothing/less of A-L and/or compensate France with chunk of Belgium. Then start backing french oversea policy (Levant and Egypt especially?)
Russia and UK aren´t happy with growing franco-german(-italian?) influence in Orient...
 
Wilhelm I of Prussia dies of something in 1868 (and so never becomes Kaiser Wilhelm I). He is succeeded by his son Friedrich, who has ambitions to consolidate Germany and become Kaiser. However, Friedrich dislikes Bismarck. It is politically awkward for Friedrich to sack Bismarck, but their relations are at arm's-length.

In 1870, Bismarck attempts to engineer war with France over the Hohenzollern candidacy for the throne of Spain. As in OTL, he does some creative editing of diplomatic reports to inflame passions on both sides. He then has the presumption to announce that Friedrich has been intolerably insulted by the French reaction, and responds for him in terms that would insure war.

But Friedrich isn't having it. He notes that ministers do not tell princes what they think or put words in their masters' mouths. He sacks Bismarck, and issues a message to France that is, though not apologetic, conciliatory. The crisis passes.

Friedrich now seeks the formation of the German Empire on a "liberal" basis, with no more of Bismarck's "eisen und blut" ("iron and blood"). But France is still opposed. Finally, in 1876, he conceives a "brilliant strategem". He arranges the marriage of his eldest daughter Charlotte to the Prince Imperial of France - the son of Napoleon III (also Napoleon), who has lived a few years longer without the stress of OTL.

This is a "win-win": the Bonapartes get into the royal establishment of Europe, and in return, France supports the creation of the German Empire. The union even gets the approval of Britain, or at least of Queen Victoria, Charlotte's grandmother (who OTL proposed the marriage of her youngest daughter Beatrice to the Prince).

The alliance was famously celebrated in the 1895 photographic portrait of "Three Empresses": the Queen, the Kaiserin, and the Imperatrice.
 
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Maybe one beats the other and it become a a case "if you can't beat em, join em" for the other. One becomes the Canada to the others USA.
 
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We need a common enemy for this. Maybe if Britain doesn't resolve the Fashoda incident peacefully and thus France and Germany both become starved for colonies?

In any case, Germany can't take Alsace-Lorraine in 1871.
 
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