AHC: Franco-German alliance in the xix century

Your challenge, should you choose to accept it, is to have an alliance between France and Germany in place by 1900, with a POD no earlier than 1815.

Bonus points if the POD is later than 1870 (maybe a less harsh peace for France or a worse Commune de Paris?).

If the border questions are solved there can be great sinergy between Paris and Berlin imho, with France focusing on colonies and Germany on Eastern Europe and both working to thwart the Anglo-saxon world order.

How would Russia, Austria-Hungary (or the Austrian Empire if the POD is earlier, say a successful 48 in Germany leading to a sort of "liberal axis") and Italy (assuming it forms ittl) react?

Russia would likely be hostile and could be used by the UK as a continental counterweight.

A-H could swing either way, but will likely fear the German nationalists a lot, especially if this is an alt-1848 scenario.

Italy would likely be allied, although in a very subordinate position.

Edit: there have been already threads about this, I know, but they are all quite old (and I was inspired by the discussiom about a continued Dreikaiserbund).
 
No takers? In otl the teo states needed three wars in 70 years, one worse than the other, to understand the benefits of collaboration (in the eec/eu), but what could bring them together a century in advance? A partition of Belgium and Luxemburg could do the trick, but would it necessarily mean war with the UK?
 
No takers? In otl the teo states needed three wars in 70 years, one worse than the other, to understand the benefits of collaboration (in the eec/eu), but what could bring them together a century in advance? A partition of Belgium and Luxemburg could do the trick, but would it necessarily mean war with the UK?

It's very very hard. The Franco-German relations are a key part of European history. They rarely ally, if ever.
 

longsword14

Banned
No takers? In otl the teo states needed three wars in 70 years, one worse than the other, to understand the benefits of collaboration (in the eec/eu), but what could bring them together a century in advance? A partition of Belgium and Luxemburg could do the trick, but would it necessarily mean war with the UK?
If France and Germany are both in on it, then Britain can go and attack French colonies, I don't know how strong the France is in the naval department at the given time, how effective would be RN in even effecting France?
Could France even decide to get rid of its empire for a settlement in Europe? If you remove the colonies from the equation, then there is not much Britain can do to deter France.
 
If France and Germany are both in on it, then Britain can go and attack French colonies, I don't know how strong the France is in the naval department at the given time, how effective would be RN in even effecting France?
Could France even decide to get rid of its empire for a settlement in Europe? If you remove the colonies from the equation, then there is not much Britain can do to deter France.

It largely depends on the timeframe: if we imagine an alternate ww1 with Germany, Italy and France going against UK, Russia and A-H, then the naval side of the affair might not be that unbalanced, with the Franco Italians that could gain the upper hand in the Med. With no real continental menace France will try to seize Egypt, leading to significant colonial warfare there, but Indochina is likely to be lost.

In any case this is just empty talk if we don't find a reasonable way to have this unlikely set of alliances come into being.
 
There is only one opportunity: the Franco-German war of 1870 ends early. Bazaine is still besieged in Metz, but MacMahon has an army at Chalons and ITTL Louis Napoleon listen to the advice of Prince Napoleon and Trochu and does not send him on a death ride in the vain hope of relieving the siege of Metz.
This different Napoleon III goes rather to Paris, and the Bonapartist regime does not fall like a house of cards.
There is a cease fire and peace negotiations somewhere in Switzerland.
This is what Bismarck wants, a short, victorious war and like in 1866 the peace treaty is not punitive: reparations and a neutralization of the French border from Switzerland to the Channel, with a demolition of the French fortresses (Metz, Strasbourg and Belfort).
Alsace-Lorraine remains French, and this takes away the main bone of contention and revanche.
Within ten years there is a defensive alliance between France and Germany, and a customs union (maybe the occasion will be the TTL equivalent of the Russo-Ottoman war, but more likely the opportunity is created by the growth of trade between France and Germany).
A-H, Italy, Belgium and the Netherlands join the customs union in the 1880s, while Great Britain stays aloft.
Bismarck is celebrated all over Europe as the guarantor of peace and prosperity in the continent.
 
The main issue you need france to admit that meddle in germany is insane to suicidal, the banned Beer mostly make that possible as he unify a great germany early and germany was busy with colonies in Asia and Americas(long story) and france seeing that mega germany say...not worth it but make anglo-british rivalty worse and during late XIXth Century, the Entete is signed with germany,france and Italy(who like otl, do nothing) and a British-Russian alliance(worked as they meddle the great game and both wanted the germans out of the balkans) who later got ottomans into the fray.
 
There is only one opportunity: the Franco-German war of 1870 ends early. Bazaine is still besieged in Metz, but MacMahon has an army at Chalons and ITTL Louis Napoleon listen to the advice of Prince Napoleon and Trochu and does not send him on a death ride in the vain hope of relieving the siege of Metz.
This different Napoleon III goes rather to Paris, and the Bonapartist regime does not fall like a house of cards.
There is a cease fire and peace negotiations somewhere in Switzerland.
This is what Bismarck wants, a short, victorious war and like in 1866 the peace treaty is not punitive: reparations and a neutralization of the French border from Switzerland to the Channel, with a demolition of the French fortresses (Metz, Strasbourg and Belfort).
Alsace-Lorraine remains French, and this takes away the main bone of contention and revanche.
Within ten years there is a defensive alliance between France and Germany, and a customs union (maybe the occasion will be the TTL equivalent of the Russo-Ottoman war, but more likely the opportunity is created by the growth of trade between France and Germany).
A-H, Italy, Belgium and the Netherlands join the customs union in the 1880s, while Great Britain stays aloft.
Bismarck is celebrated all over Europe as the guarantor of peace and prosperity in the continent.

Asking a country to dismantle its border fortresses is nonsense if you want peaceful relations. Fortresses are defensive by nature.

If you don't avoid a franco-prussian war that was masterfully engineered by Bismarck in 1870, then whatever the result of this war (a french defeat or a standstill), you need Germany not to annex any french territory and not to fine unprecedently high war indemnities.

If so, then France will be left with nothing to blame on Germany and both countries may aim at building peaceful and fruitful relationships (some kind of EEC starting 2 or 3 generations earlier than OTL) and challenging Britain in world trade.
 
Fortresses do not play just a defensive role: they can and are used as springboards for attacks and play the role of reserves and rallying points in a war.
German nationalists (and the king of Prussia too) have to be convinced that the peace treaty has removed the French threat against the southern German states: demolition of a couple of fortresses or three (as it was done just a few years earlier for Luxembourg) would be a small price to pay for having started a war and managed to loose it in a matter of weeks.
Reparations would be way smaller than OTL, since the war would be some 6 months shorter.
 
Fortresses do not play just a defensive role: they can and are used as springboards for attacks and play the role of reserves and rallying points in a war.
German nationalists (and the king of Prussia too) have to be convinced that the peace treaty has removed the French threat against the southern German states: demolition of a couple of fortresses or three (as it was done just a few years earlier for Luxembourg) would be a small price to pay for having started a war and managed to loose it in a matter of weeks.
Reparations would be way smaller than OTL, since the war would be some 6 months shorter.

There was no actual french threat by that time. France was just the bogeyman that Bismarck masterfully agitated in order to force unification on reluctant south german threats. France was then no match for Germany and It would no longer be until Germany be totally destroyed because of its hubris during WW2 but that took a giant coalition of the USSR, Britain and the USA.

Bismarck, Roon, Moltke and the informed prussian ruling elite were perfectly aware of the real situation.
 
Wasn't there a French treat? Maybe it should have been explained to the southern German states, and in particular to Wurrtenberg. One of the "justifications" for the annexation of A-L was that it would have reduced the amount of imperial troops which would have to be located on the border otherwise.
France had gone for European domination in the Napoleonic era, and it took much more time to defeat them than it took defeating the Nazis in WW2 (or the 2nd Reich in WW1).
It was defeated, occupied, put under a despicable Ancien Regime, had to face a demographic crisis because of all the soldiers who died in the Napoleonic wars: still it rebounded, notwithstanding 2 other revolutions and a coup by Louis Napoleon and in the 1850s and 1860s Paris was the most glittering city of Europe. A badly lost war, another change of regime and a major insurrection in Paris (which took a major effort to be put down) didn't fazed France at all: once again the economy rebounded and the war reparations were paid before due date. This is the France that would be "no match for Germany" and would quake in her boots every time someone sneezed in Berlin?
 
A Franco-Prussian Alliance is FAR from impossible before 1870. If you make Prussia and France have enough fear of Russia and the UK respectively (e.g. British Hannover, Russia early industrialization, etc.) and combine it with a stronger and more united Austria-Hungary a shift of alliances can occur, the possibilites are infinite. However, after 1870, it really depends on how the war goes.
 

longsword14

Banned
Seriously? I'm sure you can do your own homework
No, what it actually means is that the oft repeated claim that many like you repeat is based on iffy evidence, France had started a demographic transition that would continue to weaken it throughout the 19th century.
 
No, what it actually means is that the oft repeated claim that many like you repeat is based on iffy evidence, France had started a demographic transition that would continue to weaken it throughout the 19th century.

The causes are debatable, but the demographic stagnation of France during the 19th century is a pretty established fact. Still, you can't simply say its just an early demographic transition... (Isn't it too off topic?)
 
No, what it actually means is that the oft repeated claim that many like you repeat is based on iffy evidence, France had started a demographic transition that would continue to weaken it throughout the 19th century.
In such a case maybe you should provide the relevant citation.
That would be a more polite way of countering "the oft repeated claim....based on iffy evidence".
Provided of course that you believe the Napoleonic wars had actually incremented the male population in France :rolleyes:
The demographic transition happened too, but strangely enough France continued to be a prosperous country as well as one of the major European powers
 
Your challenge, should you choose to accept it, is to have an alliance between France and Germany in place by 1900, with a POD no earlier than 1815.

I'm not sure if this would count, but it might help to have TTL's Germany just consist of the northern states, with the south joining the Hapsburgs in a sort of Greater Austria. Basically German IOTL was strong enough to threaten the balance of power in Europe and make France afraid of their stronger, more populous eastern neighbour. Nerfing Germany slightly (but not so much as to make it unrecognisable) would help with this.
 
If Queen Victoria married a Russian Prince a Russian-British allience could form and a German-French allience would have been formed to counter that.Austria Hungary would probably side with the French and the Germans while Italy or the Italian States would side with Russia and the British.
 
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