AHC: First World African State?

Is there anyone with more detailed knowledge of Ethiopia during this period? Because honestly I see much potential and plenty of PODs, but don't know enough to really comment on exactly how it could work out.
 
Is there anyone with more detailed knowledge of Ethiopia during this period? Because honestly I see much potential and plenty of PODs, but don't know enough to really comment on exactly how it could work out.

While earlier in thread...
Not really. The Ethiopians were still operating under a feudal system, and there were religious divisions between Christian and Muslim, ethinic ones between the native Amhara and the Oromo that had moved into the region at the dawn of the 19th century, various wars and civil wars among the princely states & inter-nobility squabbles, ideological and factional differences vis-à-vis what, exactly, to do about the Europeans & Egyptians, etc. etc.

The whole area was basically a basket-case until well into the 20th century.
 
ok, but are there any good POD's that you think would change that? What about preventing the descent into chaos caused by the Zemene Mesafint? Ethiopia seemed to be fairly competent as a coherent kingdom before that.
 
Highly competent? Not very... The traditional Era of Princes is dated to the mid-1750s, but the cycle of systematic violent coups, counter-coups, civil wars, rebellions, etc., all stemmed back to at least the late 1500s. I would say Ethiopia hadn't been truly stable since the reign of Sarsa Dengel.

Sure there's plenty of opportunities to avoid or somewhat diminish that, and given enough time things could certainly work out, but lets' not kid ourselves - that's well beyond the realm of what the OP asked for, and even then being stable as opposed to FUBAR is a long way from first world status.
 
Tunisia could have reached first world status more easily than most. No real ethnic problems, some fertile soil in the north, a manufacturing base and the ability to ship its exports across the Mediterranean to Europe. I don't think the French damaged the place too badly in the colonial era, but I'm not that knowledgeable about it.

The main differences needed are to become democratic early, and to stay that way, and to be able to attract the sort of industry and academia that would lead to Tunisia being a source of innovation. The principal danger is that bad things were going on in Libya and Algeria, and Tunisia would have to insulate itself.
 
No World War 2, or a different WW2 would help with Libya or Eritrea, assuming we were comfortable with the Italian version of ethnic cleansing in the former.

Eritrea might be worthwhile even with WW2 as per OTL. Maybe some how ensure that it doesn't get swallowed by Ethiopia as per OTL? Perhaps a POD in WW2 would help, as I'm vaguely aware that the British occupation forces have been described as systemic looters.
 
Highly competent? Not very... The traditional Era of Princes is dated to the mid-1750s, but the cycle of systematic violent coups, counter-coups, civil wars, rebellions, etc., all stemmed back to at least the late 1500s. I would say Ethiopia hadn't been truly stable since the reign of Sarsa Dengel.

Sure there's plenty of opportunities to avoid or somewhat diminish that, and given enough time things could certainly work out, but lets' not kid ourselves - that's well beyond the realm of what the OP asked for, and even then being stable as opposed to FUBAR is a long way from first world status.

Well obviously not highly competent, I said fairly, i.e. decently or moderately. I don't see it as being out of the realm of the OP, it asked how to create a first world state in Africa. I find that very unlikely for really any part of it, but then we can at least try to get as close as possible, and POD's for Ethiopia being more powerful and well off certainly fall within that scope. Also, plenty of other nations have broken cycles of instability to become resurgent players on the world stage so I'm just wondering if you consider there to be a distinct lack of good POD's by this point due to European or domestic influenced trends, or both? Again, I admit that my knowledge is week in this area, but I guess I just have this feeling that Ethiopia could at least be in the position that Thailand or the Philippines is economically today. Perhaps even (and I admit this might be a stretch in light of your info) India in certain ways and areas. So again, I'm just curious, you don't see any potential POD's after 1750 for Ethiopia to at least partially modernize?
 
The OP specifically said, in the first line if the OP no less, no PODs earlier than 1750. So no, under those restrictions I don't see any way to move Ethiopia from a barely held together constantly at war with it's self feudal backwater to first world status.

Now, you've moved the goalposts from that considerably. "At least partially modernize" could certainly be done to place Ethiopia along side the likes of, say, Saudi Arabia, South Africa, or Venezuela - but I don't see it reaching anything near G8+5 or even OECD country levels. You'd need a POD(s) to make the area much more stable, or more populous, or with a better educated class, or better upward social mobility, or etc. - abs that would require quite a lot of things going just right in Ethiopia's favor.

This is a very hard challenge since OP effectively took away the only two countries that ould achieve what he's asking for. Again, maybe a united West Africa post-independence.
 
I agree with many of the other thread posters that the following countries represent the best chance to achieve First World status:

Mahgreb countries (Morocco, Algeria and Tunisia)
Liberia
Kenya
Zanzibar city-state
Rhodesia

That does not mean I think it likely that they could. Each has major problems it would need to overcome. Morocco, Algeria, and Tunisia are in similar positions, and are probably the best in position historically to achieve this. However, Morocco and Tunisia probably just need better leaders willing to push modernization and selective Westernization. Algeria is more burdened by the terrible civil war with France, and the socialist leanings of the independence leaders. Liberia would need to reconcile the descendents of its colonizers with the native tribes. Kenya would need a strong leader who can adequately balance/handle the various ethnic groups instead of favoring just one. Zanzibar would need to transform itself into a entreport for the eastern coast and develop local manufacturing. Rhodesia would require the most changes, and it would need to secure support from enough blacks to stabilize the country and convince the West to acknowledge its independence. None of those are very realistic, as I don't think there is anyone who could have pulled it off historically.

Ghana and Ethiopia would require more fantastic scenarios and are even less plausible, but still potential. Both had lots of promise and various advantages, but their leaders made crucial errors and neglected some basic aspects of governance in the post WWII era.
 
I'm curious... While I agree with the suggestion of several others that Zanzibar could be first world country (a "Singapore of Africa," if you will), I have to wonder about Tanganyika. Is Tanganyika holding Tanzania back? One of the interesting things about Tanzania is that there is no dominant ethnic group with a stranglehold on the country's political influence and resources as there is in many other Sub-Saharan states. This gives it an advantage over Kenya, with its large groups like the Kikuyu and Luo. I notice Kenya has also popped up in the discussion several times, so why not Tanzania?
 
Here's an idea. Have post-WWII Ethiopia avoid the 30 years under Derg rule. That could enable it to become first-world by 2010, with a stable monarchical government and a firm hand on the reins of the state.
 

birdboy2000

Banned
Here's an idea. Have post-WWII Ethiopia avoid the 30 years under Derg rule. That could enable it to become first-world by 2010, with a stable monarchical government and a firm hand on the reins of the state.

Good governments generally don't fall to red revolutions in the first place. Monarchical Ethiopia had more than its share of problems, and nobles too powerful for the central government to tax generally require dramatic changes to sweep them away.

I think what's needed isn't a continued monarchy, but a different revolution which puts in place better rulers than the Derg. But even that's difficult - communism is the radical ideology du jour in this era, and although you can certainly have better communists than Ethiopia got, it's not exactly a recipe for success.
 
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