Change in TL: The HE177 is designed in a standard non dive bombing 4 engine configuration from the get go. It sees operational deployment starting in September 1942 (many were built OTL, but few were used)
In September 1942, same day as Hitler fires Halder, Goering looking to cheer up Hitler, talks up the new bomber and states that it can from the bases they currently have, destroy Soviet industry, and attack Allied convoys. Hitler is a little concerned that Goering is boasting, but he needs any easy way out of his current situation.
On September 25th, Hitler announces a defensive strategy, two panzer divisions are transferred from army group A to a reserve right behind Stalingrad. Further attacks on Stalingrad or toward Grozny are halted. HE 177 attacks begin on Soviet industry.
The Soviets counter attack like OTL, but the Germans do better, still retreat, avoid the Stalingrad encirclement, the Italian 8th army in the east is able to retreat intact.
In the med, the Germans, without Stalingrad and more JU52s available to fly in supplies, and the Allies dealing with a bit higher shipping losses, do better in Tunisia February-April 43. But by May 15th the shipping and transport losses are annoying to the point an evacuation is ordered. Night runs by destroyers and night flights by JU52s pull out tens of thousands of the best combat troops. These are used to form new combat extra divisions in Sicily, with equipment not used for an offensive at Kursk.
The Allies decide not to invade Sicily in 1943 and go all in for Overload in 1944 (perhaps doing a little more in the central Pacific in late 43).
The Germans have committed to holding Southern Europe and the Eastern front for political reasons (the Nikopol mines for example are deemed critical) and so the forces in France are about OTL.
The Allies commit everything to a cross channel invasion in 1944. With no Anzio and a more constrained 1944 Pacific plan. The Allies do a Normandy invasion, but add a division sized diversionary attack on the north coast of the Breton peninsula which greatly helps the pace of the advance.
Even though the Germans are pushed back to their border, Hitler can't pull troops out of Southern Europe for fear of Mussolini leaving and can't pull from the east for fear of losing Ploesti and Nikopol and Estonian shale oil.
Hitler shoots himself in Berlin July 1945, Warsaw rises, the Slovak national army rises, the Hungarians and Romanians and Bulgarians switch sides, the Allies rush in and even fly in reinforcements for these, the Allies end in Warsaw, Budapest, Bucharest, Sofia, Prauge.