AHC: Failed Tonkin Campaign (1883-86)

[John Fredrick Parker]

With no PoDs prior to 1882, how can French power in Southeast Asia be as curbed as possible, preferably by means of military and/or diplomatic defeats?

And, of course, what would be the effects? For example, if France is defeated in the Sino-French War, could that lead either France or Russia (or both) to seek alliance with the Japanese (pre 1894) against China? Would the French elections of 1885 be affected; if so, how is the course of the Third Republic altered?

 

[raharris1973]

Anglo-German opposition?

I don't know why they'd exert the effort and take the risk on behalf of China and Vietnam, but if they did, it complicates the French position to the point of impossibility.

Siamese entry into the war on China and Vietnam's side? Again, this seems dangerous for little gain.

Aftermath -

if France is defeated in the Sino-French War, could that lead either France or Russia (or both) to seek alliance with the Japanese (pre 1894) against China?

It could. The French would have the most motive. The Russians could feel like an alliance against the colossus of the south is useful, especially now that's proven able to say "no" to a European initiative in its backyard. The Japanese have independent aggressive designs versus Korea and China, and France can add some wealth and technology to their side.

On the other hand, France being defeated doesn't necessarily make it seem like the most fitting and effective ally against China. France might be seen as trying to use the power of others, and as prone to picking a round 2 against China at a time and place of its own choosing based on its hurt feelings, not necessarily at a time or place that is optimal for Japan or Russia.

 

[Historyman 14]

It is not that hard when you look at it. I even did something for it back in 2014.

1: French public opinion was not particularly enamored of either colonialism or intervention in Tonkin. All it would take is a few battles lost, and the public would not be for it.

2: Greater investment into Chinese naval thought rather than naval equipment during the 1860s could be what stop the Freach economic blockade.

3: French making stupid moves, like attacking the Nanyang Fleet in Shanghai which would have probably drawn immediate Western condemnation.

4: Siam declares war on France simultaneously.

 

[GauchoBadger]

If Prince Gong manages to defeat the french, he'll probably return to Beijing with a lot of prestige.
If he can somehow dislodge Cixi from the throne, then that's even better, considering his reformist ideals.

 

[John Fredrick Parker]

If he somehow can dislodge Cixi from the throne, then that's even better, considering his reformist ideals.

How would Li Hongzhang figure into this? They were both "reformers" AFAICT, but were they political rivals or allies? I ask because, based on the discussion @Historyman 14 linked, he might play a role in the PoD.

 

[raharris1973]

3: French making stupid moves, like attacking the Nanyang Fleet in Shanghai which would have probably drawn immediate Western condemnation

Who do you mean by "Western" in this instance? British?

France seems pretty western to me.

So you are thinking other powers with interests and presence in Shanghai would be angry with France for bringing fighting close to such a focus of their interests, whereas what the French actually did to the ports of Taiwan and Fujian was OK?

 

[Kaze]

The benefit would be that the Qing would need a greater military presence. They would start buying military weapons from the British giving the British something other than Opium to sell to the Chinese.

 

[raharris1973]

The benefit would be that the Qing would need a greater military presence. They would start buying military weapons from the British giving the British something other than Opium to sell to the Chinese.

but then what do the opium growers and dealers do?

 

[John Fredrick Parker]

@Kaze That said, PoD is after both opium wars... though it is prior to the Japanese war and the Boxer Rebellion, so military reforms as possible, possibly even political reforms.

but then what do the opium growers and dealers do?

Well, let's not get ahead of ourselves -- even if the Qing military looks to modernize and starts buying British arms, the opium trade isn't going away anytime soon, certainly not by the end of the 19th century, during which time I expect China's path will already be significantly different from OTL.

 

[raharris1973]

What is the boundary of French holdings in Indochina if the Chinese do win all the battles in Tonkin?

This still hardly drives France from the region as a whole. Chinese forces never came close to touching French-ruled/claimed territories in Cochin China, Annam or Cambodia.

 

[John Fredrick Parker]

What is the boundary of French holdings in Indochina if the Chinese do win all the battles in Tonkin?

Loss of Northern Vietnam at minimum, I'd guess.

 

[GauchoBadger]

I am under the impression that a french retreat from Indochina could also butterfly away the Third Anglo-Burmese War. Maybe Konbaung Burma survives as a large princely state of sorts?
Plus, if the french lose Indochina, they will probably want compensation for such loss in the coming Scramble for Africa.

 

[John Fredrick Parker]

I am under the impression that a french retreat from Indochina could also butterfly away the Third Anglo-Burmese War.

Is this because Thibaw Min doesn't declare that Southern Burma is to be liberated? Or will he be under Qing protection? (If their relations were strained 1883 OTL, that's unlikely by 1885 TTL.) Or do the British, with China holding their own against the French, decide to play it safer in a war against Konbaung forces?

 

[GauchoBadger]

Is this because Thibaw Min doesn't declare that Southern Burma is to be liberated? Or will he be under Qing protection? (If their relations were strained 1883 OTL, that's unlikely by 1885 TTL.) Or do the British, with China holding their own against the French, decide to play it safer in a war against Konbaung forces?

These seem like good reasons, but i'd also posit that much less french economic encroachment into Burma and a stronger-looking China can be included.

 

[John Fredrick Parker]

I do also wonder how, if at all, this would affect the political situation in France; for example, would the Left suffer bigger losses in the 1885 elections, possibly even threatening the Premiership of Henri Brisson?

 

[Tanc49]

How the hell did I miss this thread...

My two cents: France cannot be militarily defeated by China in that time period given how much they got destroyed OTL.
What you can aim for is a political defeat, AKA the American-Vietnam war scenario, something the Vietnamese were quite good at since at least the XIIth century. Your problem is that the French have a quite stable base in Cochinchine and know the region relatively well by this time. What you'd want is a stronger emperor who can lead the insurrection. OTL the emperor fled to the jungle and died in 1888 (I think? Might be a year off). But if he survived, he could have gone to the south and raised a revolt against the French realm which was not super popular

 

[Historyman 14]

How the hell did I miss this thread...

My two cents: France cannot be militarily defeated by China in that time period given how much they got destroyed OTL.
What you can aim for is a political defeat, AKA the American-Vietnam war scenario, something the Vietnamese were quite good at since at least the XIIth century. Your problem is that the French have a quite stable base in Cochinchine and know the region relatively well by this time. What you'd want is a stronger emperor who can lead the insurrection. OTL the emperor fled to the jungle and died in 1888 (I think? Might be a year off). But if he survived, he could have gone to the south and raised a revolt against the French realm which was not super popular

The Freach public was not really for colonies outside of Algeria, nor any-kind of intervention in Tonkin. Give them a few battles lost to the Chinese, and Vietnamese, give them a bloody nose, and the Public would be demanding Paris to get out of a pointless war.

So your idea works.

 

[Tanc49]

Which gets back to my last question.

The question (that I do not have the answer to) is how much the public cared versus how much the deputies cared.

A worse case scenario would probably be a halt of colonial operations and a concentration on the Eastern line (Ligne Bleue des Vosges and all that).

The cultural implications would be extremely interesting as well!

 

[John Fredrick Parker]

A worse case scenario would probably be a halt of colonial operations and a concentration on the Eastern line (Ligne Bleue des Vosges and all that).

So France obsesses harder and earlier about Alsace-Lorraine? (Actually, is the former even possible?) As it happens, I was thinking of this as being part of a larger TL where Germany works harder to keep friendlier relations with Britain, so that could actually work out for them longer term.

The cultural implications would be extremely interesting as well!

Now this is something I genuinely don't know anything about, and would be curious -- what cultural affect did their colonies in Indochina have on the French Third Republic? (I could probably give a decent answer on how Indonesia affected Dutch Culture, how Portuguese Africa molded Lisbon, and I expect everyone knows a thing or two about how Indian cuisine impacted Britain; but I'm drawing a blank on how what to look for in French Indochina's mark in Paris or the rest of France.)

(Mind of, none of this means France completely loses Indochina in TTL's 1885 -- we've touched already on what the peace being more balanced, not a France-screw -- I'm just talking more generally about a related question.)

 

[Tanc49]

So France obsesses harder and earlier about Alsace-Lorraine? (Actually, is the former even possible?) As it happens, I was thinking of this as being part of a larger TL where Germany works harder to keep friendlier relations with Britain, so that could actually work out for them longer term.

Think a lot more credits assigned there, a larger focus on the army compared to the navy, more fortifications...
Lots of credits for modernization of France's infrastructure
However also more private investments in Europe or South America

Now this is something I genuinely don't know anything about, and would be curious -- what cultural affect did their colonies in Indochina have on the French Third Republic? (I could probably give a decent answer on how Indonesia affected Dutch Culture, how Portuguese Africa molded Lisbon, and I expect everyone knows a thing or two about how Indian cuisine impacted Britain; but I'm drawing a blank on how what to look for in French Indochina's mark in Paris or the rest of France.)

Bit more long term, but there's definitely a large influence both ways, in cooking and vocabulary for Indochina. For Africa, it would be massive! Francafrican culture is heavily intertwined, just look at ethnicities in France today!

Since investments wouldn't be spread over the whole thing, you might get more money put in Cochinchina, ending up with a highly advanced economy with more settlers in if you have a proto industry. Since it's culturally distinct from the North (khmer vs viet), you might see the birth of a truly metis society, heavily frenchified

(Mind of, none of this means France completely loses Indochina in TTL's 1885 -- we've touched already on what the peace being more balanced, not a France-screw -- I'm just talking more generally about a related question.)

Another question is, if they lose then, what stops them trying again later? Avenge our fallen sons and what not. A properly prepared campaign against China would be devastating, and France would probably ask for more compensations. I doubt Vietnam could modernise much if France puts an embargo on it