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Hey, first post in a few months. I'm fully aware that there are a million Romney 2012 threads on this board, but I'm curious what a few fresh eyes might have to say about this particular scenario.

Let's say the 2009 economic stimulus package fails to pass in Congress (perhaps leading Obama to pursue austerity), and Obamacare fails to pass as well (which is not too inconceivable due to its supporters' razor-thin margins in OTL).

Do these two things--contributing to a much weaker economy and continuously rising healthcare premiums, with millions more uninsured, basically guarantee a Romney victory in 2012 (assuming he becomes the GOP nominee)? Or could Obama manage to campaign in a way that gives him another term, even if the election is much closer?
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