AHC: Exarchate of Ravenna survives, rest of the Empire falls

Deleted member 97083

The Exarchate of Ravenna fell long before the empire did. However, it did last a full 167 years and its borders may be less unstable than they'd appear.

If you examine the territorial extent of the Exarchate of Ravenna in the 590s, it's actually pretty similar to the area of Roman colonization in 100 BC, except more extensive.

So there is precedent for a territory ostensibly smaller than the Exarchate of Ravenna defeating a territory larger than the Lombard states. Discounting of course, the decline in the wealth of Rome.

Exarchate of Ravenna in 590 AD:

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Rome, colonies, and "allies" in 100 BC:

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Furthermore, most of the important parts of the Exarchate of Ravenna survived to 650 AD, when the rest of the empire was really starting to feel the effects of falling apart:

Eastern Empire in 650 AD:

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With that in mind, could it be possible, with proper investment, reinforcement, and leadership from the East, for the Exarch of Ravenna to reconquer the rest of Italy or at least stabilize his position until the Caliphate is formed?

In that case, if Anatolia and Constantinople fall to the Umayyads, could the Exarchate of Ravenna become the main surviving piece of the Empire, bringing the Romans back to where they began?
 
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I'd say yes, but you'd want two things. (At least if you're looking late in the day)

1) A better emperor so that the Heraclians don't think they should overthrow them.
2) A diplomatically built window for the Exarchate of Africa AND a moderate army from the East to both assist the Exarchate.

1 - is obvious, you don't want circumstances where the Empire is eating itself alive
2 - drawing on the Empire Proper and the Exarchate means neither takes on overly much strain, plus - if the deal is that Africa helps Ravenna in exchange for Ravenna to assist later, then that strengthens the partnerships in play there. That and you want as large a force as possible to make the campaign quick and reduce the window for further wrecking Italy.

Beyond that - yeah, I'd say it would be totally possible to restore Ravenna.

Now, the Caliphate taking Italy? That would require a larger defeat than Yarmouk et al. The resources granted by an Exarchate of Ravenna, and no Heraclian usurpation make the Empire stronger - not weaker. Perhaps the Caliphate takes its time, takes control of Persia and then brings their forces and the Persians in together with a massive sledgehammer? I can see that leading to an alt-Marble Emperor. The heir of the Emperor is sent with the regalia to Ravenna, where he is crowned, and either takes over in his adulthood/is displaced by the Exarch - meanwhile his father does a Constantine XI and becomes a rallying cry to retake Constantinople from the heathen.

Reconquest of that will be difficult, but unlike North Africa, I can't see Anatolia converting en mass and letting the Caliphate springboard out to Europe. In fact, it may cause them to waste resources attempting to do so, basing the Caliphate in Constantinople. (Renamed to Madinat Muhammad perhaps?), which would give the Exarchate of Africa and Italy time to prepare for the next period of expansion if it comes. - I can see further splits in the Caliphate post-Mohammed if you have Mecca, Persia and Constantinople - the Muslim world being that of "Shia, Sunni, and uh, something else?", with the idea being that the person controlling Constantinople should be the Caliph being the rival idea to the rationale in Shia and Sunni beliefs.
 
It would help a lot if Totilla didn't sack Rome twice in 546 and 550. Even more if there's no siege of Rome in 537/38, because although the Romans were successful, it was a Pyrrhic victory since the Goths ransacked the otherwise highly developed latifundia in the countryside, which were instrumental in keeping Rome fed AND they cut the aqueduct that was crucial for providing water. Rome had ~300k people before the war, and was down to 35k after it, a 90% drop in population.

Keep the Gothic War away from Latium, and Rome has a very good chance to dominate the peninsula in the long run. Ditto for Milan/Mediolanum, which was another huge city needlessly destroyed.

For post-Gothic War PODs:

1. Gepid King Cunimund keeps his end of the bargain and returns Sirmium (Belgrade) to the Romans when promised, and their alliance holds. Together, they defeat the Lombards in 565.

2. Romans keep their end of the bargain, and join Cunimund in battle against the Lombards in 567, defeating them

3. The Avars somehow establish overlordship over the Lombards and prevent their migration south into Italy.

4. The Lombard King Alboin is murdered earlier than OTL, and the Lombard coalition fractures earlier. Disunited, the Lombards are contained in northern Italy

5. Tiberius Petasius' rebellion succeeds in achieving critical mass in Italy, but for one reason or another, they don't (or can't) march on Constantinople, and instead settle for taking over the rest of Italy and making the Pope their bitch. With a local Emperor to rally behind and a couple of lucky breaks, they might yet resist the Lombards.
 

Deleted member 97083

For post-Gothic War PODs:

1. Gepid King Cunimund keeps his end of the bargain and returns Sirmium (Belgrade) to the Romans when promised, and their alliance holds. Together, they defeat the Lombards in 565.

2. Romans keep their end of the bargain, and join Cunimund in battle against the Lombards in 567, defeating them

3. The Avars somehow establish overlordship over the Lombards and prevent their migration south into Italy.

4. The Lombard King Alboin is murdered earlier than OTL, and the Lombard coalition fractures earlier. Disunited, the Lombards are contained in northern Italy

5. Tiberius Petasius' rebellion succeeds in achieving critical mass in Italy, but for one reason or another, they don't (or can't) march on Constantinople, and instead settle for taking over the rest of Italy and making the Pope their bitch. With a local Emperor to rally behind and a couple of lucky breaks, they might yet resist the Lombards.
Do you know good sources about this post-Gothic War chain of events?
 
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