AHC:Even *better* late 19th/early 20th for the Japanese

It appears that Japan more or less from 1854 to the 1930s was arguably one of the luckiest civilizations on the face of the earth. They went from a culture forced open by the Europeans to the only country not of European(ish)* Descent to be considered a major power (Persia, Ethiopia and Thailand never reached that high). So, I'm wondering just how much better than OTL they can get.

If you assume a TL with a POD after Perry leaves where the United States in 1930 is *recognizable* (would be viewed as Democratic to OTL 1930, contains at least the 48 contiguous states, etc) is there *any* way that the industrial production of the Japanese can be brought up to *half* what the United States has? (As opposed to the one-eight approximately of OTL)?

I'm quite willing to take a functional collapse of Europe in WWI with or without the Spanish Flu, but I'm not sure that is enough for the Japanese to control enough resources with people willing to work them....

*(The Ottomans were close enough...)
 

trurle

Banned
It appears that Japan more or less from 1854 to the 1930s was arguably one of the luckiest civilizations on the face of the earth. They went from a culture forced open by the Europeans to the only country not of European(ish)* Descent to be considered a major power (Persia, Ethiopia and Thailand never reached that high). So, I'm wondering just how much better than OTL they can get.

If you assume a TL with a POD after Perry leaves where the United States in 1930 is *recognizable* (would be viewed as Democratic to OTL 1930, contains at least the 48 contiguous states, etc) is there *any* way that the industrial production of the Japanese can be brought up to *half* what the United States has? (As opposed to the one-eight approximately of OTL)?

I'm quite willing to take a functional collapse of Europe in WWI with or without the Spanish Flu, but I'm not sure that is enough for the Japanese to control enough resources with people willing to work them....

*(The Ottomans were close enough...)

Quadrupling Japanese industrial production over 65 years will require aditional 2.2%/year industrial growth. This is a perfectly possible. But who will buy their industrial goods to make industry sustainable? The political climate of the early 20th century was not very conductive for free trade, markets were divided and protected from intruders. So, either capture colonies (what was difficult) or increase domestic consumer base. I do not consider increasing productivity - because too much intangible factors are involved in productivity.

So let`s stick with growth of domestic population, with goal of 180 millions Japanese by 1930.
Following improvements may work:
1) Earlier (about 1870) Matsukata fiscal reform
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Matsukata_Masayoshi
and Land Tax Reform of 1873 coming as a pack, rather than bug and update 8 years too late (in 1881).
Therefore no Chichibu incident, better food production, more babies.
2) Seikanron plan is accepted in 1873, resulting in earlier conquest of Korea and its better integration into Japanese Empire. Bonus to babies, productivity and food production, as trouble-makers sent abroad instead of rebelling on home islands.
3) Siberian Intervention continues indefinitely because Soviet Union recognized independence of Siberia after some military mishaps against Alexander Kolchak army (may be possible if Kolchak policy would more tolerant). Therefore, friendly republican Siberia state soon becoming the Japanese mining area. Therefore, Japanese imports from more expensive states reduced, resulting in better domestic manufacturing business profits and ultimately in larger industrial production.
 
Don't let the military take over the country, and maintain good relations with the US (and maybe ease off on China) and I could see them being at least as economically successful as now, with a military to back it up.
 
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