AHC: European Union Wins the Cold war

Have the European Union Become the foremost superpower with the second power 2nd by a distance. The European Union does not have to be united into a single country, nor do the US or USSR have to break up but bonus points if they do. Try and achieve this before the 21's century, good luck.
 

SsgtC

Banned
Have the European Union Become the foremost superpower with the second power 2nd by a distance. The European Union does not have to be united into a single country, nor do the US or USSR have to break up but bonus points if they do. Try and achieve this before the 21's century, good luck.
With a post 1900 departure, highly unlikely. The only way a United EU is the strongest power in the world is if the US remains isolationist and refuses to join either world war. And even then, the US would be able to project A LOT of soft power economically and even more hard power of they ever feel the need too.
 
Taft wins in 1948 and the Europeans are left to their own devices. The UK and Denmark involve themselves in early European integration activities. Yugoslavia following the Tito-Stalin split allies with Western Europe.
 
WWII- instead of collapsing France takes Churchill's offer to unite as one country with the UK, name eventually settled on is European Union; before the war officially ends Belgium, Luxembourg, and Netherlands are strongly urged to unite as well and do. Could this nation be strong enough to stand up to Stalin's demands on Europe? Resulting in no Cold War because the Soviet Sphere has already been curtailed and still-born.
 

SsgtC

Banned
Taft wins in 1948 and the Europeans are left to their own devices. The UK and Denmark involve themselves in early European integration activities. Yugoslavia following the Tito-Stalin split allies with Western Europe.
That's far too late. The US has far too much military and economic muscle, particularly over Europe after Lend-Lease, to ever be relegated to second tier status. They may not want to be involved directly, but if they tell Europe to jump at that point, Europe is going to jump. The US will not willingly give that kind of power up
 
What about something involving Operation Unthinkable? This would need civil war in Turkey in the 1940s (which I don't know how plausible it is) or Operation Unthinkable being executed despite no Turkish civil war.
  • World War III breaks out as the WAllies feel the need to go for Operation Unthinkable. My idea was that World War III comes mostly because Turkish communists were close to ousting Ismet Inönü and Western support in Greece, Turkey, Iran, Korea and Western Europe seems untenable. Churchill, Truman (possibly pushed by Douglas MacArthur?) and De Gaulle order Operation Unthinkable. Otherwise, crises in Greece, Iran, Korea, France and/or Italy and/or the Czechoslovakian coup must lead to war.
  • The Soviets do not yet have the bomb.
  • The Soviets lose and are pushed back to the Dnipro, if not the Don. Moscow is glassed with a nuclear bomb, and the Tsardom is restored west of the Urals. If that's impossible, put a White Russian Republic instad. Capital at - renamed - Leningrad.
  • Georgia, Armenia and Azerbaijan are freed, as is Kurdistan. Armenia is meanwhile ubered and gets a coast around Rize and Trabzon.
  • The Soviets lose at least Turkmenistan and Tajikistan. With the help of a winning Kuomintang, Mongolia and Tuva are liberated.
  • The North Caucasus is liberated, either into independent states or into highly autonomous areas within White Russia/the Restored Tsardom.
  • Poland, Ukraine, and the Baltics are free, if wrecked, after World War III
  • Most expulsions and the border changes of Poland are reversed. Poland gets L'vov, Germany keeps Silesia and some of Prussia. East Prussia might become German again or a neutral state.
  • Already in the beginning, the EU consists of everything from Brest to Luhansk, the "Free European Community" in order to finally prevent war ever occurring again in Europe and to oppose both Communism and fascism/Nazism. Over the years, the UK, Ireland, the Scandinavian countries, Spain, Portugal (after their fascist regimes fall), Greece, Turkey, Kurdistan, Armenia, Azerbaijan, the North Caucasian states and White Russia join.
  • With an European Union going from Lisbon to the Taymyr Peninsula, they should well have Second Power status...
 
What about something involving Operation Unthinkable? This would need civil war in Turkey in the 1940s (which I don't know how plausible it is) or Operation Unthinkable being executed despite no Turkish civil war.
  • World War III breaks out as the WAllies feel the need to go for Operation Unthinkable. My idea was that World War III comes mostly because Turkish communists were close to ousting Ismet Inönü and Western support in Greece, Turkey, Iran, Korea and Western Europe seems untenable. Churchill, Truman (possibly pushed by Douglas MacArthur?) and De Gaulle order Operation Unthinkable. Otherwise, crises in Greece, Iran, Korea, France and/or Italy and/or the Czechoslovakian coup must lead to war.
  • The Soviets do not yet have the bomb.
  • The Soviets lose and are pushed back to the Dnipro, if not the Don. Moscow is glassed with a nuclear bomb, and the Tsardom is restored west of the Urals. If that's impossible, put a White Russian Republic instad. Capital at - renamed - Leningrad.
  • Georgia, Armenia and Azerbaijan are freed, as is Kurdistan. Armenia is meanwhile ubered and gets a coast around Rize and Trabzon.
  • The Soviets lose at least Turkmenistan and Tajikistan. With the help of a winning Kuomintang, Mongolia and Tuva are liberated.
  • The North Caucasus is liberated, either into independent states or into highly autonomous areas within White Russia/the Restored Tsardom.
  • Poland, Ukraine, and the Baltics are free, if wrecked, after World War III
  • Most expulsions and the border changes of Poland are reversed. Poland gets L'vov, Germany keeps Silesia and some of Prussia. East Prussia might become German again or a neutral state.
  • Already in the beginning, the EU consists of everything from Brest to Luhansk, the "Free European Community" in order to finally prevent war ever occurring again in Europe and to oppose both Communism and fascism/Nazism. Over the years, the UK, Ireland, the Scandinavian countries, Spain, Portugal (after their fascist regimes fall), Greece, Turkey, Kurdistan, Armenia, Azerbaijan, the North Caucasian states and White Russia join.
  • With an European Union going from Lisbon to the Taymyr Peninsula, they should well have Second Power status...
I love a lot of that, however, with all due respect to the Kurds- you'll not see an independent Kurdistan. Iraq is too important in Cold War situations at that point and no one is going to piss off Iraq and Syria and Iran with an independent Kurdistan.
 
I love a lot of that, however, with all due respect to the Kurds- you'll not see an independent Kurdistan. Iraq is too important in Cold War situations at that point and no one is going to piss off Iraq and Syria and Iran with an independent Kurdistan.

Hm. However, Kurdistan is not an elemental part of the plot here - instead, we could go for a rabidly anti-Soviet Turkey, too. Also, isn't Kurdistan thought of normally without at least the Iranian part?

Anyway, it's not an elemental part of the plot. We can also get the Second Power EU from Lisbon to the Taymyr Peninsula and down to Yerevan/Erzurum/Mosul/Erbil without a free Kurdistan.
 
What about something involving Operation Unthinkable? This would need civil war in Turkey in the 1940s (which I don't know how plausible it is) or Operation Unthinkable being executed despite no Turkish civil war.
  • World War III breaks out as the WAllies feel the need to go for Operation Unthinkable. My idea was that World War III comes mostly because Turkish communists were close to ousting Ismet Inönü and Western support in Greece, Turkey, Iran, Korea and Western Europe seems untenable. Churchill, Truman (possibly pushed by Douglas MacArthur?) and De Gaulle order Operation Unthinkable. Otherwise, crises in Greece, Iran, Korea, France and/or Italy and/or the Czechoslovakian coup must lead to war.
  • The Soviets do not yet have the bomb.
  • The Soviets lose and are pushed back to the Dnipro, if not the Don. Moscow is glassed with a nuclear bomb, and the Tsardom is restored west of the Urals. If that's impossible, put a White Russian Republic instad. Capital at - renamed - Leningrad.
  • Georgia, Armenia and Azerbaijan are freed, as is Kurdistan. Armenia is meanwhile ubered and gets a coast around Rize and Trabzon.
  • The Soviets lose at least Turkmenistan and Tajikistan. With the help of a winning Kuomintang, Mongolia and Tuva are liberated.
  • The North Caucasus is liberated, either into independent states or into highly autonomous areas within White Russia/the Restored Tsardom.
  • Poland, Ukraine, and the Baltics are free, if wrecked, after World War III
  • Most expulsions and the border changes of Poland are reversed. Poland gets L'vov, Germany keeps Silesia and some of Prussia. East Prussia might become German again or a neutral state.
  • Already in the beginning, the EU consists of everything from Brest to Luhansk, the "Free European Community" in order to finally prevent war ever occurring again in Europe and to oppose both Communism and fascism/Nazism. Over the years, the UK, Ireland, the Scandinavian countries, Spain, Portugal (after their fascist regimes fall), Greece, Turkey, Kurdistan, Armenia, Azerbaijan, the North Caucasian states and White Russia join.
  • With an European Union going from Lisbon to the Taymyr Peninsula, they should well have Second Power status...

In order for a Third World War to occur immediately after the Second, a much earlier POD would be required. Nobody - especially not Attlee or Truman or even Stalin - wanted war. The British, French, and American publics viewed the USSR as a valued ally (not without reason). The allied publics had also become war weary - England had been at war for six years, and America for four. Would Americans and British want more years of rationing, more years in which hundreds of thousands of Allied soldiers died? And if such a war occurred, it would not result in a Soviet defeat - the Russians have much larger conventional forces than the Western Allies, and the US has very few atomic bombs - atomic bombs it will also need to use against Japan. There also is no infrastructure in England for launching an atomic attack. The bomber crews would have no good maps, and would be facing an essentially unknown enemy.

If the war drags on for several years, into the 1950s, then eventually the US would create and deliver enough atomic bombs to defeat the USSR. But would the Americans and British be willing to make the immense sacrifices necessary? Would there be any significant will for such a war? After all, the Western Allies attacked their own ally unprovoked.
 
Have the European Union become the foremost superpower with the second power second by a distance. The European Union does not have to be united into a single country, nor do the US or USSR have to break up but bonus points if they do. Try and achieve this before the twenty-first century, good luck.
Then only way I can see that happening is some sort of mutual destruction of the US and the USSR. Off the top of my head some sort of rift occurs between the US and Europe, the Soviets are able to position and make operational their nuclear weapons in Cuba without being discovered, when the Crisis occurs Europe states that they're neutral but if attacked by any side will retaliate with their own - read British - thermonuclear weapons, when the Crisis turns hot -accidentally or not - the USSR is effectively destroyed whilst the US loses roughly two dozen of their major cities.
 
Then only way I can see that happening is some sort of mutual destruction of the US and the USSR. Off the top of my head some sort of rift occurs between the US and Europe, the Soviets are able to position and make operational their nuclear weapons in Cuba without being discovered, when the Crisis occurs Europe states that they're neutral but if attacked by any side will retaliate with their own - read British - thermonuclear weapons, when the Crisis turns hot -accidentally or not - the USSR is effectively destroyed whilst the US loses roughly two dozen of their major cities.

Yeah, something like this seems the most obvious way - a limited nuclear conflict between the US and USSR in which Western Europe ends up (relatively) unscathed.
 
USA stays out of WW1, it's a worse slog with a greatly disenfranchised population. USSR doesn't turn communist, instead most governments lean right

Communism becomes a more pannationalist force, workers against the aristocracy who drag them to war.

When WW2 turns up it's really out of touch with the people and rebellions occur often from within the army. Most of the leaders know each other from the international and the resulting new states are all small but connected. They settle on a single currency and foreign policy in order to avoid war and aid workers. One multinational army means no risk of europe war again. The small countries allow many variations of communism and with easy travel people can choose what they like

No USSR, isolationist USA and a united europe of the regions
 
It might be possible with a later POD. If the US decided to return to isolationism in the 1970s, disenchanted by the Vietnam War. By this stage the EEC/EU was already an economic power, stronger than the USSR and slightly larger than the USA, and it steps up militarily.
 
In this scenario where USA drops out of the cold war, how quickly can the European union begin to complete militarily with the SU? How long might it take them to get an army together?
 

SsgtC

Banned
In this scenario where USA drops out of the cold war, how quickly can the European union begin to complete militarily with the SU? How long might it take them to get an army together?
The UK still would have the BAOR, the French would still have their forces. My guess? About as long as it takes them to rearm the Heer.
 
Maybe something could be done with a expanded conflict based around the Korean war? That way most of the conflict can take place in Asia and mostly focus on the SU, the USA and China while they slog it out.
Hell you could have the European members pull back and try and push for peace after their forces in the conflict got an especially bloody blow ruining the relation between Europe and the US while at the same time drain more resources from the other powers involved.
 
Just a couple of ideas

Part 1

- January 1945, Wallace become president of the USA and while not giving all the world to the URSS on a silver platter, put more pressure on the European powers regarding decolonization, linking a proper schedule with postwar military and economic aid. Vietnam and Indonesia become almost immediately independent and Algeria has been assured to become independent (in general the European nations avoid some useless and costly war and get to keep some little more piece of their empire than OTL).
Crisis in Iran, Berlin, Turkey and east europe as OTL, relations between the former allies are extremely cold.
- 1945-47 Poland is reannexed to the URSS after a 'free and fair' referendum, the new border between German and Poland follow the Lusatian Neisse
- 1948 Taft win the presidency and return at the pre-war isolationism regarding european matters, still nobody want the URSS inglobe Western Europe and the USA need that market, so OTL massive economic and military help is given but no US troops in Europe.
The Western European Union Defence Organization is formed as a bindind alliance against possible soviet invasion, UK and France start a join nuclear weapons project so to save money.
- 1950 Korean war and soviet invasion of Jugoslavia keep the tension high and show the necessitty of closer european integration and more importantly the need to include Germany in that
- 1952 Eisenowher become the new president, promising a more hardline policy against the URSS, focusing in the Pacific and the soon to be ex-colonial holding, while collaborating with the Europeans to keep the communist contained
- 1955 Austrian russian occupation zone merged with Czechslovakia and form the people federation of Danubia, the remaining Austria after much deliberation become part of West Germany
- 1956 Suez intervention, first serious diplomatic clash between USA and Western Europe as Washington try to use diplomatic and economic mean to force the ANglo-British-Israel armada to back off; utter refusal from Paris and London and the USA don't follow their menace
- 1957 Treaty of Rome, all the different pan-european organization are merged in a single one, the European Economic Union.
- 1958 Ifni war
- 1959 Cuban revolution
- 1961 Annexation of Goa
- 1961 Berlin Crisis resolved by the west leaving Berlin and East Germany ceding part of Thurigia and Mackemburg
- 1962 clash between Indonesia and Netherland (supported by the EEU),Western Guinea keep her independence. Indonesia fall more on the Soviet camp, Washington disappointed as she pressured the Dutch to give up Guinea to prevent exactely this
- 1962 Cuban Crisis end with US pledge to not invade Cuba and retire jupiter missiles from Turkey and Iran, all that after a series of military incident between American and Soviet forces all over the world
- 1963 Lobster war between France and Brazil.
- 1967 six day war, Israel beat the Arab coalition; Tel Aviv had the support of his historical 'friends' London and Paris and in general of the EEU, while Moscow and Washington are more supportive of the arab
- 1969 pan-european energetic project start as a mean to limit being dependent from external energy sources, the construction of numerous nuclear plant it's started all over the continent (all that due to the fear of an arab oil embargo the next war)
-
 
My route would be a non Communist Russia post 1918. Probably the former Russian empire devolved in multiple smaller states that cannot collectively dominate Europes economy. The 'German Problem' is settled without world war, as are Japanese imperial ambitions. A healthy Europe constructs a customs union, improves its banking system, & invests in new forward looking industries. Without a global war in the 1940s the US economy does not recovery near as rapidly from the Depression & the US banks dont not gain as much capitol as they did OTL. Roosevelt departs as president in 1940, & a fiscally & socially conservative batch of politicians stagnate the US in attempting to reconstruct a supposed golden age their grandfathers knew in the 19th Century.
 

Anchises

Banned
Have the European Union Become the foremost superpower with the second power 2nd by a distance. The European Union does not have to be united into a single country, nor do the US or USSR have to break up but bonus points if they do. Try and achieve this before the 21's century, good luck.

1) The German Reich "wins" WW1.

They either attack Russia First and knock them out of the war much sooner. France and GB are bleeding themselves white against the German trenches. America isn't involved and Isolationism prevails.

Lenin arrives in Russia and the whole Revolution happens earlier than OTL.

Brest-Litovsk happens and Germany is able to extract enough food to prevent the starvation of OTL for some years (in Germany... Eastern Europe is fucked in this TL).

A-H isn't as exhausted as OTL in 1916 because the Russians were unable to focus on them.

With their victory in the East the Central Powers start pressuring Italy hard (the reasons to join the Entente are the same ITTL) and Italy becomes a slaughter house.

The Schlieffenplan isn't happening because the early Russian collapse prevented a drawn out 2 front war.

Losses skyrocket and A-H becomes more and more unstable (against Entente troops in Italy losses will be terrible for A-H, losses actually start surpassing OTL quickly). Conquered Serbia only strenghtens the slavic nationalists and military rebellions become a common occurence.

To end the war Germany starts a massive offensive along the French border. With new tactics developed in Italy the offensive is somewhat successful.

The Entente lines are shattered and the Germans advance between 100-150 km along the front before the offensive loses power and bogs down to trench warfare again.

The Entente is shocked after years of costly and pointless offensives. The Germans meanwhile have suffered gigantic losses and their decisive offensive was at best a minor strategic victory.

Similar to OTLs Tet offensive it was a massive psychological victory. Entente propaganda had emphasised the dire situation of the Reich for years. Starving and engaged at two fronts Germany was bound to collapse. Victory against the Russian Empire and this successful offensive however actually turned this propaganda against the Entente.

Faced with the prospect of a Germany still able to conduct massive offensives more and more British politicians looked for an out because the cost of the war threatened the existence of the Empire.

German High Command meanwhile was aware that the Heer lacked the ressources to repeat the successes and that A-H would be unable to continue much longer. Starvation started rearing its ugly head despite the plundering of Poland and the Ukraine.

So Great Britain and Germany started probing each other via diplomatic back channels.

A deal was quickly reached and France, faced with zu prospect of fighting the Reich alone, was basically forced to agree.

2) Faced with a status quo ante in the West German Imperialists were forced to focus their grand designs on the East.

Their expectations and reality however diverged strongly. After years of costly warfare Germany was unable to sustain massive annexations of hostile populations.

Especially because the scletoric Austrian Empire quickly collapsed after WW2. As the new hegemon in Central and Eastern Europe Germany was forced to intervene. Needless to say that trying to prop up the Habsburg Empire quickly turned into a quagmire. In the end Germany was forced to acknowledge reality. In the Pressburg treaty Germany and the successor states of A-H agreed to a new order.

Austria itself joined the Reich as the Archduchy of Austria (the German nationalists became the major political power in Austria) while the rest of A-H broke up into several states with varying degrees of allegiance to zu German Reich.

The Soviet Union used this distraction to annex White Russia and the Ukraine.

3) The pointless slaughter of the Great War and the costly interventon in A-H erroded the authority of the Kaiser. There is no Dolchstoßlegende and the reactionary elites start losing their hold over Germany in a slow process and when the Great Depression hits (there is bound to be one in such a globalised world imho) it completely erodes. Germany turns into a constitutional monarchy at some point in the 30s.

France meanwhile pursues a policy of Diplomacy and friendship with Germany. Briand becomes a successful Stresemann ITTL.

Great Britain meanwhile struggles to preserve the Empire against the new powerhouses Japan and the United States.

4) At some point the Soviets and the new Franco-German Alliance are going to be drawn into a conflict. The Franco-German Alliance is able to prevent the Soviets from expanding further West but is unwilling to push East due to horrific experiences of WW1.

Great Britain on the other hand is drawn into a three way naval arms race with Japan and the USA. At some point the RN and the IJN clash and the IJN clearly wins the day. This triggers a war between Japan and the British Empire. The USA gets involved too and is able to massively enhance their influence in the region.

Britain has to give up most holdings in Asia and India becomes independent because at some point they simply can't afford to continue the war and the pressure in India reaches a critical point.

Japan is strenghtened and the Pacific is divided between Japan and the USA.

5) Britain realigns its strategic priorities and starts a slow shift towards joining the Franco-German alliance. Decolonization picks up steam and the remaining colonies are quickly becoming independent.

At this point Atomic weapons become a common occurence (no WW2 equivalent so their development is massively delayed).

Germany and France are locked in a Cold War with the Soviet Union. Great Britain has joined them at some point in the 60s.

The ideological competition with the Soviets causes enhanced economic cooperation (common banking System, Customs Union etc.). The Arms Race drives technological developments and creates a pan European arms industry. The military Alliance starts standartizing used equipment etc.

At some point in the 70s the Soviets collapse (no Great Patriotic War against the Nazis and a smaller sphere of influence).

The Franco-German-British Alliance becomes more formalized and turns into a European Confederation with even deeper social, military and economic cooperation. The former Soviet territories become aligned more closely and start drifting towards the European sphere.

6) Japans Empire is falling behind the USA more and more. The IJA and the IJN still have a death grip over the state and in a last hail mary they conduct a massive surprise offensive to capture American holdings and de facto protectorates in the Pacific.

Chemical, Biological and Tactical Nuclear weapons are used in the war. Even the Continental United States are hit by Japanese suicide submarines.

Eventually Japan loses but the USA pays a high price.

A weakened USA and a strong European Confederation are the new superpowers going into the 21st Century.
 
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