AHC: Europe with a Modern French Belgium, German Holland.

Thought this would be an interesting thought experiment. What might come of a modern Western Europe with a French Belgium and a German Holland?

POD can be any time after the start of the Industrial Revolution, but bonus points if it occurs at any point between the French Revolution and 1848, the "Year of Revolutions" in our world's Europe and exactly a decade after Belgium was created IOTL.
 
French Belgium (or, at the very least, French Wallonia) is very doable. In 1830, there was a plan proposed by Talleyrand that would have given Wallonia to France.

The problem is getting a German Holland. For Germany to be that powerful, it would have had to beaten France in a war. The other European powers wouldn't have just stood by while Germany steamrollered the Dutch. And a victorious Germany is not letting France hang on to potentially useful industrial areas like Wallonia or Alsace-Lorraine.
 
Given a more peaceful and less Prussia-centered German unification, is there some way the Netherlands might just voluntarily join up?

Bruce
 
No. I don't think the Dutch felt German since 1500.
Then they would have to be conquered by someone to be returned to the German state, but when would that have been feasible?

The end of the Napoleonic wars might give rise to that event, so they are either becoming Prussian along with the Rhineland, or joined with Hanover, which was later annexed to Prussia.

A union with Hanover might on the other hand result in both leaving Germany.
 
A different end to the Napoleonic wars (France does better or Napoleon throws the towe/is killed/seeks peace earlier plus Prussia doesn't do as well as OTL). France keeps a Rhine border. To counterbalance and compensate the house of orange (which were a favorite of the Csar), the remaining of the Rhinelands (i.e. the left bank of the Rhine) are given to Holland. Over the next century, *Holland regain a German character and the *Germany unification (which does not include Prussia, AUstria or maybe some southern German states) is centered around *Holland. As this is seen as less threatening than unification around Austria or Prussia, France (and UK) are actually in favor.
 
No. I don't think the Dutch felt German since 1500.

Nitpick: You are certainly right for Hollanders and Zealanders, perhaps also Frisians, but "not being German" in ~1520 would be surprising news to all people in the Utrechter Oversticht or Gelderland. The latter was much more seen as one of the Lower Rhenish duchies, like Cleves, Berg, Julich etc.

This is a map (wiki) of the original borders of the imperial circles, with the Lower Rhenish-Westphalian Circle colored:
489px-Lower_Rhenish-Westphalian_Circle-2005-10-15-en.png
 
Given a more peaceful and less Prussia-centered German unification, is there some way the Netherlands might just voluntarily join up?

Bruce

Not with so late a POD. If the Wittelsbachs don't lose control of the area, and instead see their influence grow, then maybe, but that's too far back for the OP.
 
No. I don't think the Dutch felt German since 1500.
I would use roughly 1600 as the point when the Dutch national identity started. mind you, I don't think the Dutch (or most other Holy Roman Empire citizens) actualy felt German before 1600, but 1600 (or at least somewhere in the middle of the Dutch revolt) is the point that the Dutch actualy started to feel Dutch.

Nitpick: You are certainly right for Hollanders and Zealanders, perhaps also Frisians, but "not being German" in ~1520 would be surprising news to all people in the Utrechter Oversticht or Gelderland. The latter was much more seen as one of the Lower Rhenish duchies, like Cleves, Berg, Julich etc.

I don't know about that. You are right to say that the people from Gelderland or Overijssel would probably feel more of a connection to the people of Cleves, but to say they would consider themselves German, is going too far. personaly I would say noone actualy realy felt German and most of the "national" identity was a local identity. The people from Gelderland and Overrijssel (or the people fromCleves and Julich) would consider themselves Gelrdrians or stichtenaren or somesomething like that. I doubt that there was any connection towards some sort of German feeling. They were part of the Holy Roman Empire, yes (not that that was very relevant), but German, no. I think you will need to wait a couple of centuries before an actual German identity would develop and replace the local identity. i believe this happened in the 18th-19th century.
 
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To the original question:
IMO this is rather easy. The 100 days go slightly different, the British, Dutch and Prussians are defeated (but not destroyed) at an alt-Waterloo and Talleyrand manages to secure a better settlement for France; while Prussia gets less.
+ France keeps most of Belgium, but the danger to the UK is neutered by the Netherlands keeping both sides of the Scheldt river.
+ The Netherlands receive most parts of the Lower Rhine, with direct territorial connection to the Duchies of Nassau. (The House of Orange actually wanted this and argued that giving the Lower Rhine to Prussia might be bad for British trading interests.) OTOH, they join the German Confederation with all of their territory.
+ Prussia receives only Westphalia as new possession, but may station Prussian garrisons in Federal Fortresses along the Rhine, like Coblentz.

Here is a very, very crude mappy:

Lower Rhine 1815.png
 
To the original question:
IMO this is rather easy. The 100 days go slightly different, the British, Dutch and Prussians are defeated (but not destroyed) at an alt-Waterloo and Talleyrand manages to secure a better settlement for France; while Prussia gets less.
+ France keeps most of Belgium, but the danger to the UK is neutered by the Netherlands keeping both sides of the Scheldt river.
+ The Netherlands receive most parts of the Lower Rhine, with direct territorial connection to the Duchies of Nassau. (The House of Orange actually wanted this and argued that giving the Lower Rhine to Prussia might be bad for British trading interests.) OTOH, they join the German Confederation with all of their territory.
+ Prussia receives only Westphalia as new possession, but may station Prussian garrisons in Federal Fortresses along the Rhine, like Coblentz.

Here is a very, very crude mappy:


I don't think that would work. First of all because the borders were pretty definitive at Vienna. I don't think they will change it. Certainly not giving more to France. Despite that I don't think this situation would mean that all of the Netherlands would enter the German confederation. I consider it more likely that a Luxemburgesque situation would be created with the Rhineland in the confederation, while the Netherlands and Belgium wouldn't be. Also there exists a real possibility that it would remain outside the confederation completely. Also in the case of a German unification, I think it is likely that the Netherlands will still remain outside Germany since they did not consider themselves German and did not want to become German. Actualy, German unification will be very different from OTL as in this case Prussia is significantly weakened and will not be able to unify Germany.

The thing is the only way for the Netherlands to join Germany with such a late POD is for the Netherlands to be conquered by Germany (or some otherway that wouldn't give the Dutch a choice.
 
I don't think that would work. First of all because the borders were pretty definitive at Vienna. I don't think they will change it. Certainly not giving more to France.

My PoD is a "Napoleon wins near Waterloo" situation. The borders already being fixed at Vienna is a very weak argument then. ;)

Despite that I don't think this situation would mean that all of the Netherlands would enter the German confederation. I consider it more likely that a Luxemburgesque situation would be created with the Rhineland in the confederation, while the Netherlands and Belgium wouldn't be. Also there exists a real possibility that it would remain outside the confederation completely. Also in the case of a German unification, I think it is likely that the Netherlands will still remain outside Germany since they did not consider themselves German and did not want to become German. Actualy, German unification will be very different from OTL as in this case Prussia is significantly weakened and will not be able to unify Germany.

In 1815, the concert of powers declaring and the new King of the Netherlands accepting that his country is a part of the GC will still suffice.

And the OP never specified that this Germany would have to be more centralized/unified than the GC of 1815.
 
My PoD is a "Napoleon wins near Waterloo" situation. The borders already being fixed at Vienna is a very weak argument then. ;)

Personally i don't think that would work. I don't think Napoleon would stop until he controls all of Europe, or at least until France has the Rhine border (so no Rhineland for the Netherlands) and possibly even the 1814 French borders, while the allied powers wouldn't stop until either Napoleon is beaten or until they are beaten by Napoleon.

Besides that new negotiations would probably only cause more troubles than it would solve. Actualy I don'tt think you would have a German Confederation after it, as it would probably lead to war between various powers, like Prussia, Russia and Austria.
 
i think we are thinking to much otl germany, if another kind of unification takes place where germany is more of a confederation than a state.

you maybe would have have to come up with a reason for the netherlands to join a confederation. a bigger more aggressive france would be felt as a bigger threat, and joining a loose confederation could be seen as a solution.

maybe the netherlands joining on the austrian side in the austro-prussian war, but find that unlikely,because it might trigger a bigger conflict with more countries joining in.

but why concentrate on a late french victory? how one where napoleon kicks the bucket earlier, as a result the netherlands gains some prussian territory (just brainstorming here)
 
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