La Rouge Beret
Donor
As it says on the tin, what would Ethiopia need in order to defeat the Italian military during the second Italian - Ethiopian conflict.
AHC: Ethiopia defeats Italian military in second Italian - Ethiopian conflict
- Thread starter La Rouge Beret
- Start date
That France and UK actively try to block Italy to attack, otherwise is endgame, sorry too difference of capacity and Benny will not permit another Adua.
This. If I recall correctly Italians concentrated insane number of troops in Somalia and Italian Eritrea including heavy artillery, tanks, motorised units and chemical weapons. There was nothing that Ethiopia could do to counter such amount of firepower.
Ethiopia was fighting against almost extreme odds, but fought extremely well. At one point (First Battle of Tembien IIRC) Ras Immiru's army was close to break through into the rear of Italian main advancing force.
If successful, that move could bag something close to half the whole Italian army deployed in East Africa behind Ethiopian lines and badly disrupt Italian supply train.
Of course, that wouldn't be endgame. Italy would STILL be at advantage overall (total aerial supremacy for instance) and the Ethiopians would have suffered horribly to achieve such a success in terms of casualties and strategical stretch; but the Italian armies are VERY badly hit.
I can see some negotiated peace after that, with neither side able to completely defeat the other.
If successful, that move could bag something close to half the whole Italian army deployed in East Africa behind Ethiopian lines and badly disrupt Italian supply train.
Of course, that wouldn't be endgame. Italy would STILL be at advantage overall (total aerial supremacy for instance) and the Ethiopians would have suffered horribly to achieve such a success in terms of casualties and strategical stretch; but the Italian armies are VERY badly hit.
I can see some negotiated peace after that, with neither side able to completely defeat the other.
No, Benny cannot hallow this kind of peace, the initial France-Uk proposal was accetable due to the situation of stalemate/more costly war than imaginated, but a negotiation after this kind of defeat mean that Mussolini will suffer loss of power internally (not counting losing face internationally) so he will send more men.
Perhaps if the magic words the Ethiopian priests used actually worked....
Ethiopia's problem is that it had changed nothing since Adwa, while the Italian military structure had changed quite alot. Ethiopia was a feudal country relying on more or less tribal soldiers tied to various vassals of the Ethiopian emperor (and some vassals and tribal groups even stabbed the emperor in the back and joined the Italians).
Ethiopia's problem is that it had changed nothing since Adwa, while the Italian military structure had changed quite alot. Ethiopia was a feudal country relying on more or less tribal soldiers tied to various vassals of the Ethiopian emperor (and some vassals and tribal groups even stabbed the emperor in the back and joined the Italians).
La Rouge Beret
Donor
So what would the Ethiopian military need to change to be triumphant?
What about purchasing Soviet arms... How about a squadron of I-16's? How long could the Ethiopians use them before they run out of spares and petrol?
Essentially how can we have Ethiopia have an outcome similar to Finland prior to WW 2?
What about purchasing Soviet arms... How about a squadron of I-16's? How long could the Ethiopians use them before they run out of spares and petrol?
Essentially how can we have Ethiopia have an outcome similar to Finland prior to WW 2?
Try a pre-1900 pod, sorry but even with purchase of modern weapons...they need the training and the infrastructure to keep an aviation functioning, otherwise is useless and this take time
Considering the disparity, Ethiopian performance could be ranked not to too far from the Finnish one.
They managed to resist for seven months to a modern armed forces that outnumbered them two to one, despite having little artillery, relatively few machine guns, no aviation of consequence and a joke of an "armored" force. They managed to achieve tactical victories and stall both the initial Italian offensives. Of course, in the end they lost.
Arguably, the Ethiopian leadership on the field was on par with the Italian one.
It is also not true that they had not changed since Adwa (the force they had Adwa was very good though, by local standards).
Soviet arms... I don't know. AFAIK, the largest sources of Ethiopian arms were France, Czechoslovakia and, I believe, Sweden. They also got some German stuff (Hitler and Mussolini were not really getting along very much at that point). They were relatively well armed for what they could expect, except aviation and armor.
The Italians didn't fight "by the rules". Yprite aside, Italy essentially deployed men and arms at the level of a relatively major European campaign for a "colonial" war (and still blundered).
Italy? Sure, yprite and other shit.
It is under the "debated/ignored things" label in contemporary Italian public discourse, but historical evidence and reports are pretty conclusive.
That, by the way, has been described by Ethiopian officers as extremely effective in disrupting Ethiopian concentrations of troops to exploit earlier breakthroughs (like in Tembien) and denying them supplies (killing cattle).
The Ethiopian accounts of course cannot be trusted entirely: there may be some kind of "we fought bravely and they cheated" bias to underplay shortcomings in their military management.
But overall I would say that the gist of it is correct; after all, Ethiopians definitely had no counter-measure whatsoever for gas, especially if delivered by planes (Ethiopia had some minimal anti-aircraft artillery, but not nearly as much as needed).
I can´t really see a way to outright win for Ethiopia either with a 20th century POD. But they might do even better than otl if the 1910s are not a lost decade for reforms. After Menelik II had his stroke in 1909 his wife stopped, even roled back modernisation efforts. After his death he had an incompetent successor. Only in 1916 when the later Haile Selassie de facto took power (not yet as king) they were restarted.
Thus have Menelik in full control until his later death and butterfly away his successor in favour of Meneliks daughter which was the figurehead for Haile Selassie until 1930 and Ethiopia might be more modern in the 30s. Of course a POD before 1909 could butterfly that war away entirely.
Thus have Menelik in full control until his later death and butterfly away his successor in favour of Meneliks daughter which was the figurehead for Haile Selassie until 1930 and Ethiopia might be more modern in the 30s. Of course a POD before 1909 could butterfly that war away entirely.
Above is mentioned yperite. Mustard gas is mentioned somewhere else. By some use of gas was not extensive and more likely Italians used it for experimental reasons. Also, they tried to justify its use by war crimes committed by Ethiopians (killing POW, using dum-dum bullets etc.)
But anyway, how could Ethiopians do better? Their army had something between 500-750 000 soldiers equipped with variety of guns. From modern to obsolete to just spears, bows and arrows. There are stories of 4-6 billion in Swiss banks. Let say it is true and Emperor instead of putting them out invest them in the army. At the time price of modern fighter plane was around 15 000 - 20 000 $, Price of light tanks was around 12 000 dollars. Let him go shopping.
A serious army reform. It's not that Haile Selassie didn't try, the problem was he was the only one trying. As I said before Ethiopia did not have a centralized army, most of the army was private troops of governors, warlords and petty kings. You'd need to magically centralize the State, which in Ethipoia's case is nearly impossible. There was no real will to centralize outside the Imperial Palace (or even inside before Haile Selassie became emperor, Empress Zauditu was a staunch reactionary not at all happy that her regent was flirting with foreign barbarian ideas).
You need to butterfly away the gas and the bombers. Italy had total control of the air and could bomb Ethiopian columns without consequence. Perhaps something might happen on Eden's peace mission that enrages him/the British government so much that they throw in their lot with the Ethiopians?
La Rouge Beret
Donor
Something I have been thinking about is a militia system for the Army, i.e. smaller core / backbone of the Army. The federal government would retain control of perhaps artillery / anti aircraft weapons and aircraft.
I have also read that prior to WW 1 there were Russian advisors that had helped the Army. Could some return post Russian Civil War to assist?
I have also read that prior to WW 1 there were Russian advisors that had helped the Army. Could some return post Russian Civil War to assist?
La Rouge Beret
Donor
Does anyone have any ideas how Haile Selassie could centralise power and improve the army? Would a revolt be useful to 'deal' with the nobles?
Is not that civil war wer not happening there, the last bad one was on IRC 1916, the problem is that every internal conflict strong enough to give Selassie the power to create a more centralizated goverment will create an entry for Italy even because things in the zone tend to spiraling out of control and border incidents were frequent, if things tend to be worse, an intervention to secure the zone will be deemed necessary.
La Rouge Beret
Donor
That's a good point and one I had not considered. So we need either the Emperor or one of his cronies to be a better politician and assume power that way?