AHC: Eritrea remains in Ethiopia

In May 1991, the post-communist government of Ethiopia allowed Eritrea to hold a referendum on independence. Despite some hopes that Eritreans would not vote for independence, over 99% of the region did in 1993. But was this inevitable?

The challenge is to have Eritrea remain in Ethiopia. I would prefer the POD be sometime after August 1991, but before the referendum in April 1993. I would prefer if it can be done peacefully.

This is my first time trying a challenge, so please forgive me if I am doing something wrong.
 
The only problem is it being done peacefully with that POD.

If no referendum is held, and the West supports Ethiopia holding Eritrea, then maybe. But it still won't be peaceful.
 
What was fundamentally wrong with the union? Were the Tigray peoples of Eritrea treated poorly by the Ethiopian goverment?

You need to address the reasons as to why they wanted the split and then you can address the reasons as to why not.
 
What was fundamentally wrong with the union? Were the Tigray peoples of Eritrea treated poorly by the Ethiopian goverment?

You need to address the reasons as to why they wanted the split and then you can address the reasons as to why not.

Aside from decades of war, the only real problem I see is that the promised federation became abandoned (dominantly) after the rise of communism. Could a guarantee of a federalized Ethiopia be enough for the Eritreans to remain?

I also want to add that I find it strange that Isaias Afewerki of Eritrea and Meles Zenawi of Ethiopia are both Tigray, have roughly the same political ideologies, and fought together against the communist government; and yet the two moved completely away from each other after the 1990s (due to one wanting an independent Eritrea and the other wanting a Greater Tigray).
 
Aside from decades of war, the only real problem I see is that the promised federation became abandoned (dominantly) after the rise of communism. Could a guarantee of a federalized Ethiopia be enough for the Eritreans to remain?

I also want to add that I find it strange that Isaias Afewerki of Eritrea and Meles Zenawi of Ethiopia are both Tigray, have roughly the same political ideologies, and fought together against the communist government; and yet the two moved completely away from each other after the 1990s (due to one wanting an independent Eritrea and the other wanting a Greater Tigray).

The federation was abandoned for, among other reasons (i.e. communism), ideas by the Selaisse monarchy, which traditionally (as did most of the Ethiopian monarchs) supported the Ethiopian Christians against the Muslims, which in Eritrea was an issue due to the half/half nature of the country. Tigray/Tigriniya nationalism became important later, but ultimately was no more important than in the Gambela or the Ogaden.

That being said, if a true federation could've existed, then yes, peace as a whole might've been possible. But under the Selaisses, this was highly unlikely and under the Derg this was impossible. There was no way by the time Ethiopia had fought a 30 year war against the ELF and their conflict(s) in the Ogaden that anyone in the Horn of Africa had any idea what the Ethiopians would do to preserve territorial integrity.

That all being said, can Eritrea remain a part of Ethiopia, yes? With the dates given in the OP, no.
 
Aside from decades of war, the only real problem I see is that the promised federation became abandoned (dominantly) after the rise of communism. Could a guarantee of a federalized Ethiopia be enough for the Eritreans to remain?

I also want to add that I find it strange that Isaias Afewerki of Eritrea and Meles Zenawi of Ethiopia are both Tigray, have roughly the same political ideologies, and fought together against the communist government; and yet the two moved completely away from each other after the 1990s (due to one wanting an independent Eritrea and the other wanting a Greater Tigray).


There is a big cultural difference between Eritreans and Tigrayans.
Yes they share the same language but they have a different history and different culture and even ethnic makeup.

Eritreans both muslim and christian have always looked down on Tigrayans as country bumpkins and the Tigrayans have always resented this.

Eritreans and Ethiopians have never shared common rule since the time of Axum. Eritrea has been under various Beja kingdoms and midri bahri the sea kingdom and they never came under the Ethiopians kings.

Christianity has never played a part in this as the christian Eritreans were as anti Ethiopia as far back as the 1700's when they fought most of the wars against various Ethiopian kingdoms.

The difference between them is greater than the difference between Italian speaking swiss and Scicilian Italians.
 
You would prefer a peaceful end, but I can't see it happening.

Mengistu Haile Mariam never falls. He launches a massive military offensive, deploying tens or hundreds thousands of troops backed by armor and aircraft. Eritrea will be coated in iron, with the Ethiopians forcibly seizing the country through massive attacks that just keep coming, accompanied by heavy artillery and air bombardments and gas attacks. They will basically grind over all the rebel positions and areas despite their losses.

Once the country is occupied, there will be an intense and brutal counter-insurgency campaign. The insurgents will be reduced to underground pockets of resistance, and Ethiopian rule over Eritrea is solidified.

Sorry, that's the only way I see it happening.
 
you could have the Eritrean state of glorious Wadiya conquer Ethiopia? If Mussolini could do it, surely Aladeen could?
 
Perhaps in name only...

Even though Ethiopia had already lost control of Eritrea before the referendum, the agreement to agree to the referendum is the POD I would focus on. I could see an Eritrean version of Somaliland that is independent in all matters, but just doesn't have international recognition. keep in mind, the international community doesn't want to see African countries divided on ethnic lines, so perhaps Ethiopia just brings there troops home and treats Eritrea like a the Jordanians treated the West Bank. Eretria then is de facto independent, but without a seat at the UN or international recognition.

Not sure if this counts, but after 1991, this is the only way I see Ethiopia keeping Eretria.
 
What most people ignore is that fact that Eritrea was not really granted independence by Ethiopia.
Eritrea practically conquered Ethiopia, placed its proteges the TPLF and others in power and left right after it made them sign on the dotted line at gun point.

so it is unique .
 
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