AHC: English, Scottish or Spanish speaking Hokkaido by 1850.

raharris1973

Gone Fishin'
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What it says. Language spoken by majority of people living in Hokkaido or Kurils or Sakhalin or Russian maritime province is English, Spanish or Scottish by 1850.
 
I think English is most likely.
I will dismiss Scottish as that would require a mass exodus or a different Britian and I don't want to go there just yet.
Spanish seems slightly easier than Scottish. But I think an early POD is needed since it lacked the strength it did in its heyday. I don't think they would be able to force Japan to give up by force so it would have to either be bought or a gift. I can't imagine any Shogun willingly giving it to Spain. I can't imagine many Christian rulers of Japan would be willing to do the same. Unless you have some nutter like Dom Bartolemeu (Omura Sumitada) ruling Japan, but that seems near ASB considering his devotion to Catholicism.
An English speaking Hokkaido is more than achievable though. There was an incident in which the British tried to attack Dutch ships in Nagasaki in 1808. Perhaps if the Saga clan were better prepared than it could lead the Japanese sinking HMS Phaeton perhaps. That would mean war or the British wanting some revenge at least so they would do what the Americans did later on and perhaps as part of the treaty the British get Hokkaido and decide to use it as a Settler colony to keep a grip on the island and to help use it as a base incase anything happens against Russia.
 

raharris1973

Gone Fishin'
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An English speaking Hokkaido is more than achievable though. There was an incident in which the British tried to attack Dutch ships in Nagasaki in 1808. Perhaps if the Saga clan were better prepared than it could lead the Japanese sinking HMS Phaeton perhaps. That would mean war or the British wanting some revenge at least so they would do what the Americans did later on and perhaps as part of the treaty the British get Hokkaido and decide to use it as a Settler colony to keep a grip on the island and to help use it as a base in case anything happens against Russia.


Hmm, I wonder how populous such a settler colony could become. Could it perhaps have a white population comparable to New Zealand's?
 

raharris1973

Gone Fishin'
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Even if it there's a substantial white settler community, over time, given probable labor demands and other push-pull factors, Koreans, Japanese and Chinese will migrate there and outnumber the whites most likely.
 
I can't imagine the English ever being the majority in such a situation. But, if they rule it, then those who live there will need to learn English and as long as English speakers keep going there, the need to learn English will also be there.
But overall, I can't imagine too many would want to go there considering the distance and how cold it gets in winter. Then again, in this ATL Hokkaido could become the equivalent of OTL New Zealand.
Also, if the English keep a quota on the number of labourers from each place, then they can stop one particular group becoming dominant and English would become necessary for the different groups to communicate.
 
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