AHC: End WW1 by Christmas of 1914

So we all know of the infamous promise whereas Kaiser Wilhelm II told the German soldiers marching to the Great War that "they will return home by Christmas" and stuff like that (although in some accounts I've heard that he said "home before the leaves have fallen off the trees"), which is now commonly used as a way to show how detached the leadership of the nations in WW1 were from reality.

So then is it possible to make Wilhelm's promise come true? Is there a way to have World War I end before December 25th, 1914? It doesn't matter which side wins, just one requirement - it still has to count as a world war, with at least a majority of the great powers in Europe participating, so it can't just be a regional conflict between Austria-Hungary and Serbia.

I'd love to hear your suggestions.
 
What if Germany attempts an Eastern Strategy, while France bashes their head against German fortifications. The Russians are more cautious and don't decisively defeat Austria-Hungary's Army but also don't get smashed by Germany. By 1915 things are still inconclusive and getting very, VERY costly, and the British mediate a peace, confident that the balance of power is maintained.

This would require quite a few more PoDs than just the above. You'd need a different Wilhelm who doesn't constantly feel like he has to compensate for something, at the very least. But it's an interesting scenario that I've never seen investigated, and might actually be easier to pull off than the Germans somehow taking Paris by 1915 AND defeating Russia.
 
Russia wins at Tannenberg and occupies East Prussia.

Large German army transfers eastwards leads to defeat in the west.

Ottomans do not enter war.

Italy and Romania want to be on the winning side and declare war.

A-H collapses.

Germany asks for terms.

All done by Christmas.
 

BlondieBC

Banned
IMO, it takes a series of POD to have any good shot of winning that quick by anyone. France is the only Entente power that is even theoretically possible to defeat that quickly. I would tend to start following events.

1) The possibility of war is taken a bit more seriously at high levels in German and Austria. Delicate balance here since IMO, if Great War was the known result, the CP probably avoid the war with diplomacy. We need enough seriousness to have the plans executed more skillfully, but still without fear of a Great War.

2) A-H high command understands that war with Serbia will mean war with Russia. Even if delayed by a day or so, the A-H start with War Plan Russia.

3) The Germans hopefully will not need to transfer the 3 corps to the east. The details can vary, but we need a stable front in the east. Now we need things to go better in the west, since we need a win, not a "Germany does a lot better.

4A) Belgium allow the Germans to pass was possible. One can use this POD. Assume this is not the one wanted.

4B) We stick closer to OTL. We need the Germans to encircle/maul the French 5th Army. The 3 corps in #3 also have to be used to good effect. We need the Marne to be a win. We need the BEF mauled. And then we get to the hard point. Winter is quickly approaching. The Germans hold the Marne. The BEF is bottle up in Calais or maybe on the French Flank. German logistics suck due to long supply lines, burning thru some prewar stockpiles, and the blockade starting to have an effect. Maybe Italy has started making noise about French concessions for neutrality. We still missing some items.

- A reasonable peace settlement offered by the Germans.
- Something breaking the French will to fight not only before Paris falls, but before Paris is even under siege.

So I can get you close, but what one really needs is a unforced mistake by the French, and these are unpopular POD's. You could take the stuff above which gives you the quickest reasonable French loss (Late Summer 1915), and add a truly unforced error. Something like the French waiting another 36-48 hours to begin mobilization. The Belgians for some odd reason refusing to sabotage their own railroads, bridges, and tunnels. You basically need the French to make 1940 level mistakes, but in 1914.
 
Any earlier Entente victory ideas?

Delay the invention of the Haber Process by at least a couple years, so Germany remains dependent on imported nitrates for the manufacture of both munitions and fertilizer. I'm not sure how much of a stockpile of nitrates Germany would have had pre-war, nor how much could have been smuggled in past the British blockade, but when Germany starts running low they'll be in for a very bad time (mass starvation if they prioritize munitions, or complete collapse at the front if they prioritize fertilizer) unless they can bluff their way to a negotiated settlement.
 
Delay the invention of the Haber Process by at least a couple years, so Germany remains dependent on imported nitrates for the manufacture of both munitions and fertilizer. I'm not sure how much of a stockpile of nitrates Germany would have had pre-war, nor how much could have been smuggled in past the British blockade, but when Germany starts running low they'll be in for a very bad time (mass starvation if they prioritize munitions, or complete collapse at the front if they prioritize fertilizer) unless they can bluff their way to a negotiated settlement.
Germany historically captured a huge amount of nitrates in Antwerp. Butterfly this and you change the war even with the historical haber process.
 
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