AHC: Egypt is uncolonized

The challenge: with a POD after 1840 (the Oriental Crisis), have Egypt not fall into any of the European colonial empires. (Alliance/strong influence is fine, so long as Egypt stays unambigiously independent).
 
The challenge: with a POD after 1840 (the Oriental Crisis), have Egypt not fall into any of the European colonial empires. (Alliance/strong influence is fine, so long as Egypt stays unambigiously independent).

OTL - Egypt wasn't made a British protectorate until after the Ottomans entered the war. It was a sovereign state, part of the Ottoman Empire, but under British influence. It even shared the Sudan. Keep the Turks out of WWI and you probably have the status quo until Egypt gains full independence in the 40s or something.
 
Well that's simple - avoid the Suez Canal. Either Louis-Napoléon Bonaparte or Sa'id Pasha decide against it, or die, or are otherwise removed from the scenario, or de Lesseps doesn't go to Egypt, or dies, or Palmerston gets his way in stopping the project, or etc. etc. There's a about a million different ways to prevent Suez, and once you have that you've effectively removed any reason any of the European powers have to move on Egypt (and indeed, kick-start the Scramble for Africa). Egypt continues to modernize under the Muhammad Ali Dynasty, playing off the great powers against each other, and against Turkey, eventually getting drawn into a greater Great Game between France, Britain, and Russia over not only Central Asia but also the Eastern Mediterranean.
 
I had an idea that a Socialist revolution in France, after 1871, would lead to a battle of ideals in the third World. The outcome of a socialist revolution in Egypt and the Ottoman Empire. Those to states would be under French influence, but highly independent states that would advance quickly into industrial Powers. While Britain and Germany would oppose them.
 
Well that's simple - avoid the Suez Canal. Either Louis-Napoléon Bonaparte or Sa'id Pasha decide against it, or die, or are otherwise removed from the scenario, or de Lesseps doesn't go to Egypt, or dies, or Palmerston gets his way in stopping the project, or etc. etc. There's a about a million different ways to prevent Suez, and once you have that you've effectively removed any reason any of the European powers have to move on Egypt (and indeed, kick-start the Scramble for Africa). Egypt continues to modernize under the Muhammad Ali Dynasty, playing off the great powers against each other, and against Turkey, eventually getting drawn into a greater Great Game between France, Britain, and Russia over not only Central Asia but also the Eastern Mediterranean.

But thing is, the Suez canal is kind of obvious-if the French don't get the idea, someone else probably will.

Though an idea occurs to me-if the canal is delayed till after 1871, is it possible to have it get built by a German company? OTL, Germany focused on propping up the Ottomans as a buffer state, and I think they'd do the same with Egypt, since Britain especially wouldn't let them assume direct control. Or, less plausibly, maybe the canal is delayed till the 1890's and is built by Americans? The US didn't, IIRC, really have the power projection to take over Egypt like Britain wound up doing, especially considering that Britain and every other European power would likely oppose such a move.
 
But thing is, the Suez canal is kind of obvious-if the French don't get the idea, someone else probably will.

I actually started a thread on this very subject some time ago. The basic gist of it is, no, it wasn't 'obvious' - basically everyone outside of the imperial circle in France thought the idea was insane, and that even if it were possible were fundamentally opposed to it due to balance of power politics. If you can stop the Suez from happening as per OTL, there's very little chance of it happening at all, or at least until much, much later.

EDIT: To put it another way, the Suez Canal is one of those things that looks destined to happen from our OTL perspective, but in any other timeline it would be seen as ASB.

Though an idea occurs to me-if the canal is delayed till after 1871, is it possible to have it get built by a German company? OTL, Germany focused on propping up the Ottomans as a buffer state, and I think they'd do the same with Egypt, since Britain especially wouldn't let them assume direct control. Or, less plausibly, maybe the canal is delayed till the 1890's and is built by Americans? The US didn't, IIRC, really have the power projection to take over Egypt like Britain wound up doing, especially considering that Britain and every other European power would likely oppose such a move.

Too many butterflies between 18XX and 1870 to really tell. What's the POD you're looking at here? I mean if we're killing off Louis-Napoléon before he can push the project that's obviously going to have major ramifications of 'Germany.' Even just keeping de Lesseps involved in diplomacy instead of having him push the canal project could potentially unleash hordes of butterflies.
 
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What if the Suez Canal is attempted, but for some reason costs more than expected, and the project is dropped by those saying "Wait, what? No." when they realize what that involves.
 
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