The challenge: with a POD after 1840 (the Oriental Crisis), have Egypt not fall into any of the European colonial empires. (Alliance/strong influence is fine, so long as Egypt stays unambigiously independent).
The challenge: with a POD after 1840 (the Oriental Crisis), have Egypt not fall into any of the European colonial empires. (Alliance/strong influence is fine, so long as Egypt stays unambigiously independent).
Well that's simple - avoid the Suez Canal. Either Louis-Napoléon Bonaparte or Sa'id Pasha decide against it, or die, or are otherwise removed from the scenario, or de Lesseps doesn't go to Egypt, or dies, or Palmerston gets his way in stopping the project, or etc. etc. There's a about a million different ways to prevent Suez, and once you have that you've effectively removed any reason any of the European powers have to move on Egypt (and indeed, kick-start the Scramble for Africa). Egypt continues to modernize under the Muhammad Ali Dynasty, playing off the great powers against each other, and against Turkey, eventually getting drawn into a greater Great Game between France, Britain, and Russia over not only Central Asia but also the Eastern Mediterranean.
But thing is, the Suez canal is kind of obvious-if the French don't get the idea, someone else probably will.
Though an idea occurs to me-if the canal is delayed till after 1871, is it possible to have it get built by a German company? OTL, Germany focused on propping up the Ottomans as a buffer state, and I think they'd do the same with Egypt, since Britain especially wouldn't let them assume direct control. Or, less plausibly, maybe the canal is delayed till the 1890's and is built by Americans? The US didn't, IIRC, really have the power projection to take over Egypt like Britain wound up doing, especially considering that Britain and every other European power would likely oppose such a move.