AHC Earliest Prussian/German-Ottoman Alliance

When is the earliest a German-Ottoman alliance could be founded ever? And at what points could it have happened?

I'm most interested to see if there was a possibility for an alliance at the time of Otto Von Bismark, and Abdul Hamid II's reign.
 

raharris1973

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When is the earliest a German-Ottoman alliance could be founded ever?

The 1700s - Frederick the Great circa 1786-1789 threatened the Austrians with war if the Austrians did not end the war against the Ottomans and retreat from Ottoman territory.

What if the Austrians keep at it, assuming that Prussia is bluffing, and figuring they can't lose because they have Russia on their side?

And then the Prussians turn out not to be bluffing and attack Austria.

Aside from creating an early Prusso-Ottoman alliance, I would say that this creates big butterflies for the initial French Revolutionary Wars.

-Now if Prussia is not an acceptable substitute for "Germany" in your view, and you only mean the second Reich, then any point after 1871 is feasible.

For instance, Bismarck diplomatically engages with the Ottomans to create a "4 Emperors League" with Austria-Hungary, Russia and the Ottoman Empire.

In the early 1870s, Russia may not refuse this point blank, as it got dragged into its war with Turkey later in the decade by events, rather than premeditating and arranging them.

Another option could be to set up the alliance with the Ottomans as early 1879, right after setting up the alliance with Austria-Hungary. If the Austro-Hungarians and Ottomans can agree to not mess with the Bosnian status quo (de facto Austrian control, de jure Ottoman sovereignty) the Ottomans becoming the third member of the Triple Alliance before the Italians might happen. Both the Ottomans and Austrians probably consider the Russians enough of a potential threat to bury the hatchet.
 
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When is the earliest a German-Ottoman alliance could be founded ever? And at what points could it have happened?

I'm most interested to see if there was a possibility for an alliance at the time of Otto Von Bismark, and Abdul Hamid II's reign.

Post-Spanish War of Succession it is possible. First alliance in war could be the Austrian War of Succession when both can gobble up against Austria.
 

raharris1973

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Post-Spanish War of Succession it is possible. First alliance in war could be the Austrian War of Succession when both can gobble up against Austria.

wayback machine baby - I like it.

Maybe I should have given the Ottomans a piece of Hungary or Croatia in my Habsburgs get curb stomped in the War of Austrian Succession map

See map: https://i.imgur.com/Z6zd3NJ.jpg

(unfortunately it is so big I cannot attach it, only link it)

In it, I only gave slices of the Austrian domains to France, Savoy, Prussia, Saxony and Bavaria, leaving all of Hungary-Croatia to Queen Maria Teresa. Maybe I should have made the Ottomans the 6th assailant and had them take something too.

(BTW, why didn't the Ottomans participate in the War of Austrian Succession, presumably on the Franco-Prussian side, in OTL?)
 
wayback machine baby - I like it.

Maybe I should have given the Ottomans a piece of Hungary or Croatia in my Habsburgs get curb stomped in the War of Austrian Succession map

See map: https://i.imgur.com/Z6zd3NJ.jpg

(unfortunately it is so big I cannot attach it, only link it)

In it, I only gave slices of the Austrian domains to France, Savoy, Prussia, Saxony and Bavaria, leaving all of Hungary-Croatia to Queen Maria Teresa. Maybe I should have made the Ottomans the 6th assailant and had them take something too.

(BTW, why didn't the Ottomans participate in the War of Austrian Succession, presumably on the Franco-Prussian side, in OTL?)

There already was a war fought in 1735/1737-1739. Peace was recently made. Ofcourse there was also Nader Shah.
 
The 1700s - Frederick the Great circa 1786-1789 threatened the Austrians with war if the Austrians did not end the war against the Ottomans and retreat from Ottoman territory.

What if the Austrians keep at it, assuming that Prussia is bluffing, and figuring they can't lose because they have Russia on their side?

And then the Prussians turn out not to be bluffing and attack Austria.

Aside from creating an early Prusso-Ottoman alliance, I would say that this creates big butterflies for the initial French Revolutionary Wars.

-Now if Prussia is not an acceptable substitute for "Germany" in your view, and you only mean the second Reich, then any point after 1871 is feasible.

For instance, Bismarck diplomatically engages with the Ottomans to create a "4 Emperors League" with Austria-Hungary, Russia and the Ottoman Empire.

In the early 1870s, Russia may not refuse this point blank, as it got dragged into its war with Turkey later in the decade by events, rather than premeditating and arranging them.

Another option could be to set up the alliance with the Ottomans as early 1879, right after setting up the alliance with Austria-Hungary. If the Austro-Hungarians and Ottomans can agree to not mess with the Bosnian status quo (de facto Austrian control, de jure Ottoman sovereignty) the Ottomans becoming the third member of the Triple Alliance before the Italians might happen. Both the Ottomans and Austrians probably consider the Russians enough of a potential threat to bury the hatchet.

That's a big help.

I always thought an alliance like that would be a chain on Russia and Austrian development.

As for the 4 Emperors Leauge, I think Russia might accept, knowing they could have an ally that controls the Bospherous, and while not expanding much in the Balkans, they could be more inclined in East Asian expansion, and might seek to destroy the British Empire, and seek expansion in Afganistan, Iran, Manchuria, Japan, and maybe even India.

I especially like the idea of after settling an alliance with Austria-Hungary, going after the Ottomans sounds like a good idea. The Germans have decades to modernize the Ottoman Empire. Was Abdul Hamid II into reforms? From what I've seen he was, but the environment was too hostile to do it by themselves.

It seems as Otto Von Bismarck would be very willing to ally with the Ottomans, as I remember him saying positive things about the Ottomans, saying

"The love of Turks and Germans for each other is so old that it will never fail."-Otto Von Bismarck

And Willhelm II seemed like one who was definitely willing to help the Ottomans.

But would Italy join the alliance? I was thinking that since the Italians actually wanted Tunisia more than Libya, because it was closer to Italy, and left Italy into control of the Center of the Mediterranean, might still want to be an ally to take Tunisia, and Algiers from France.
 

raharris1973

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More recent PoDs could be interesting too.

The Young Turk regime spent a lot of time alliance shopping until 1914, getting rejected by everyone. Britain, Russia, Germany, all turned them down.

What if though Germany and Austria-Hungary made an alliance with Bulgaria and the Ottoman Empire between September 1913 and May 1914. (The Ottoman alliance would have to include a clause that the alliance does not cover any territory conquered by or in dispute with Italy at the time of signing). Both Bulgaria and the Ottomans had lost wars recently and were alliance shopping and likely would have been keen on the alliance. Austria-Hungary would have liked to have those two countries as allies to help counter Serbian, Romanian and Russian ambitions. OTL Germany opposed such commitments because they wanted to keep their options open to ally with Serbia and Greece and sustain the Romanian alliance. That sort of made sense since those countries had a more winning record than Bulgaria or Turkey.

However, what if the Germans were more realistic and figured two birds in the hand (Bulgaria and Turkey) are worth more than three in the bush (Romania, Serbia, Greece) or even four in the bush (just add Italy). This would have been a more realistic conclusion because of Serbian and Romanian and Italian aspirations at Ottoman expense, and the inherent difficulty of Greece following an anti-British course.

So say CP come together in alliance before May 1914, and then the Sarajevo events, and July Crisis, occur.

Will Russia be given pause by facing a larger potential enemy coalition and war on more fronts?

Or might European War break out even before the Sarajevo events if the Russians have an apoplectic reaction to the Ottoman-CP alliance?
 
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