Italy gained Eritrea from Ottoman Empire in 1878- after 500 years of Turkish rule- they might take Lybia as well. On the other hand Britain and France might be alarmed by a expanding Colonial Italy.I'm vaguely contemplating a story set in Italian Libya where the POD is that the Italians conquer and colonize it a generation earlier. I'm wondering how plausible it is. Wikipedia suggests a possibility of Italy gaining Tripoli in 1878 - any real prospect of that?
I'm vaguely contemplating a story set in Italian Libya where the POD is that the Italians conquer and colonize it a generation earlier. I'm wondering how plausible it is. Wikipedia suggests a possibility of Italy gaining Tripoli in 1878 - any real prospect of that?
Things went a bit differently: Italian penetration in Eritrea (Assab bay area) started in 1869 with the private shipping company Rubattino buying it, but legal controversies with the Egiptian Khedive continued until 1882 when the Rubattino claim passed to the Italian State. Some years later the port of Massawa was added and in 1890 Eritrea was officially declared a colony. The whole business was relatively peaceful with regards to Egypt, also because there was a British interest in having another European force in place to guard against Mahdist incursions and to block potential expansions from French Somalia.Italy gained Eritrea from Ottoman Empire in 1878- after 500 years of Turkish rule- they might take Lybia as well. On the other hand Britain and France might be alarmed by a expanding Colonial Italy.
I think it could be possible, but it likely would need an earlier POD to have an Italy that is more confident on the diplomatic stage: maybe a better performance in the III war of independence?
You have to consider, though, that at the time Italy was more interested in Tunisia, until Frnce occupied it in 1882 (Slap of Tunis). If Italian diplomacy at the time had been a bit better maybe they would have ontained a sphere of influence on Libya, and an arrangement similar to Austria with Bosnia in the aftermath of the Russo Turkish war.
Things went a bit differently: Italian penetration in Eritrea (Assab bay area) started in 1869 with the private shipping company Rubattino buying it, but legal controversies with the Egiptian Khedive continued until 1882 when the Rubattino claim passed to the Italian State. Some years later the port of Massawa was added and in 1890 Eritrea was officially declared a colony. The whole business was relatively peaceful with regards to Egypt, also because there was a British interest in having another European force in place to guard against Mahdist incursions and to block potential expansions from French Somalia.
Obviously the relationship with local tribes and especially with Ethiopia was not at all peaceful, and gave aitaly two very embarassing defeats at Dogali in 1889 and Adua in 1896.
Maybe Luigi Corti, the italian foreign minister that was at the Berlin conference, decide to act autonously and accept Tripolitania as a compensation for Austria occupy Bosnia and France having the eventual permission to get Tunisia (but some assurance about the italian local population and interest will be at least demanded).
The italian goverment will not really like that, due to being 'forced' to accept giving up Tunisia in exchange of a sandbox and Corti career will be basicaly over; nevertheless an agreement is still an agreement and Rome will honor it...even if the consequence of the 'slap of Tunisi' will remain more or less the same.
This can bring some changes in the international stand of Italy, from a partecipation at the Anglo-French occupation of Egypt due to their interest in Libya (almot happened in OTL even without); probably in exchange of a definition of the border between Tripolitania and Egypt (aka getting their hand on Cyrenaica) or greater British support for the italian colonial endevour in Eritrea or even the permission to start the colony in New Guinea (OTL the project was halted by British opposition). It will also mean some major friction with the French; OTL the French colonial authorities gradually expanded Tunisia, snatching territory in tripolitania and present this to the Ottoman authorities as a 'fait accomplit', plus there is the question of the ill definied border between Tripolitania, Chad and Algeria.