Set this during the fall of the Ming.
The
Southern Ming had some royal converts to Christianity in an attempt to receive aid from the European states. And the Qing, too, were on good terms with the Jesuits.
Li Zicheng, founder of the Shun Dynasty, has been asserted to be a Muslim, or at least raised in such a household.
I don't think Li Zicheng,if he is Muslim,could impose Islam on China assuming he is successful in crushing the Manchus.First off,the guy's movement was made up of complete crooks,which led to his eventual downfall.Second point is that his movement doesn't seem to be Muslim at all.
As for Yongli and his family,they converted in a time when they have been largely deserted by the Confucian gentry elite.
In order for a successful conversion to happen,in my opinion,you must make things acceptable to the Confucian elite.
I feel like the best bet for an Islamic China is for the Yuan to convert. Both the Ilkhanate and the Golden Horde had already converted to Islam, so it isn't completely unreasonable to have one of the Yuan emperors convert as well. As for Christianity, we could have the Red Turban Rebellion fail and have a later uprising found a Christian (probably Nestorian) dynasty in southern China.
Like I've mentioned,you need to somehow make things acceptable to the Confucian elite.I do think however that the best chance is indeed from a foreign dynasty.I think it's a bit too late if it's the Yuan Dynasty that tries to do it,given it wasn't accepted by the Confucians at all.I think the best chance would be if the religion spread among the tribes of Mongolia and modern day Manchuria such that if they managed to form a more organized state like the Jin,Liao or Qing state prior to conquering China,they get to hire more unscrupulous Confucian scholars to produce an Islamic version of Confucianism and then force it upon the rest of the gentry class through threat of violence or exclusion from government.
Trying to impose Islam or Christianity through native peasant rebellions most likely wouldn't work.By all means,the Red Turban Rebellion was actually a Manichaean movement.For a peasant rebellion to succeed,they most have some form of support from the gentry(unless you are communist).The level of support from the gentry must be more so than an organized foreign state like the Liao,the Jin Dynasty or the Qing Dynasty,since unlike those guys,you have to rely entirely upon the Confucian learned class to staff your bureaucracy and officer class(the foreigners get to staff the army and the bureaucracy with their already Islamised or Christianized tribesmen if they gentry aren't supportive).To get the support of the gentry,you most have something that's acceptable for them,that means you need to get rid of your heterodox beliefs.Zhu Yuanzhang,despite his appalling relationship with the Confucian gentry class,had to discard his Zoroastrian roots in order to be accepted.
You'd be right. In Vietnam, where the philosophy is pretty close, Christiniasm was a MASSIVE hit despite repression.
The whole concept of Heaven and "divine" worship ties very easily with Christianism. The cult of ancestors can also be repurposed as a cult of saints.
Big problems are the animism part and the whole cult of ancestor, when not repurposed.
I don't know enough about Vietnam to comment on it,other than that I don't think the conditions within Vietnam is similar to the conditions within China at all.China's a much larger country than Vietnam and it's susceptibility to foreign influences is likely less than Vietnam,especially in the inland areas which form the most of the country.
After a bit of reading, it looks like you're right - short of some mad miracle or sudden civil war in China. (which could happen, but not likely).
Perhaps a better chance then is that Timur fails his invasion, but survives and ensures a smooth succession in C.Asia and Persia, importing technology and military techniques into his Central Asian Empire.
After serious work to turn Central Asia into a military and economic powerhouse (not a super power, but certainly a threat to Russia, India, and the Ottomans) the state could take advantage of a Chinese civil war, or complacency, backed by a 5th Column of Muslim converts with roots in Central Asia, or a European Company Invasion, (ideally all of these factors), conquers N.China.
Similar ending, but with a Central Asian Empire that later retreats, leaving the former 5th Column element as the main power base of a N.China, with a S.China ruled by said Company.
Although, the impact of a strong, technologically advanced, unit Central Asian state could be as interesting, if not moreso than anything else.
Conversely, you have the Indonesian angle, with that trade relationship creating more native Chinese Muslims, later coming to power, to be later replaced with a Christian community.
I think Central Asia is the wrong direction to expand into China since the North West of China is a fairly harsh environment and that it's full of mountain passes that could be defended easily whereas to the north(Mongolia etc),once you are past the Great Wall region,you can expand easily.
OTOH, Mensicus argued that Heaven itself might be a conscious being. So, perhaps there's an opening there?
The gentry aren't a hive mind. They never are. If there's a benefit in shifting views, they can do it. Admittedly, such a thing would be a very slow, gradual expansion, but given the right carrot and stick approach (perhaps a major boom with trade with Islamic states?) and scholarly school I would imagine a more "pro Islamic faction"
Or not. I'm spitballing here. Feel free to rip this apart.
What about fish, chickens, rabbit and other livestock to supplement the diet? Perhaps importation of new crops to pick up the slack?
Dunno why this would be set in stone, or necessarily working against instead of alongside Islamic traditions. The Imam can be a fatherly figure, and oftentimes God himself is seen as one.
Only time the Confucians will budge is when a foreign invader with his own power-base is coming in with hard force and willing to accept a version of Confucianism that's modified according to their taste.
It's entirely a different matter of course if you try to make a syncretised religion.I think the only way that a native dynasty can get Christianized or Islamised prior to the early modern era would be through syncretization.