AHC: Different/No Franco-Prussian War?

So, how can we allow for the Franco-Prussian War to either:

-Not be a completely crushing Prussian victory

-Be a French victory

-Not happen

Bonus points if Germany still unifies and/or Napoleon III keeps his throne.
 
So, how can we allow for the Franco-Prussian War to either:

-Not be a completely crushing Prussian victory

-Be a French victory

-Not happen

Bonus points if Germany still unifies and/or Napoleon III keeps his throne.

Germany still unifies later, but without Alsace-Lorraine. This could avoid WW1 actually.
 
Germany uniting is one of those things that I see as "innevitable" at that point, in the eyes of most German people a united Germany was the only way to stop them from being walked over by their neighbors and be strong. In this situation I could actually see a more powerful germany even if the unification happens after the collapse of Austro Hungary.
 
So, how can we allow for the Franco-Prussian War to either:

-Not be a completely crushing Prussian victory

-Be a French victory

-Not happen

Bonus points if Germany still unifies and/or Napoleon III keeps his throne.

1. Fairly easy to do, in a number of ways. Here's just a few examples;

* The French never (accidentally) occupy Wörth, and so the subsequent battle never happens, or rather happens on French terms, who, prior to taking Wörth, held the best defensive location for miles around.
** Even with Wörth, the French could have won the battle if the Prussian commanders hadn't been able to re-establish control over their units, who had started to march wildly in random directions during the first few days of battle in confusion. Alternatively, if the French had taken the opportunity to attack during these first few critical days, they could have broken the Prussian lines and forced a Prussian rout from the field altogether.

* The French are more aggressive at Borny-Colombey, meaning that their main army is never trapped in Metz.

* The Siege of Strasbourg continues, with Uhrich not surrendering to the German forces, meaning the Germans have to either encircle the city, leaving forces behind to prevent a breakout, or take the time to capture it street-by-street.

* After smashing the Prussian First Army and forcing the Second to stall its advance at Gravelotte, the French forces either attack, or remain held up in their defensive positions, instead of retreating to Metz as IOTL. Thus Bazaine's Armée du Rhin is never trapped in Metz and forced to surrender, and thus Mac-Mahon's Armée de Châlons isn't caught strung out near Sedan and defeated in total.

* Even assuming the above battles goes as per OTL, if, at Sedan, Mac-Mahon initially appointed Wimpffen to command, instead of Ducourt, the French could have broken out of the city and continued to fight on.

Really the biggest thing to keep in mind is that, even after Sedan, the French continued to fight on. For example, the French won a decisive victory at Coulmiers some two months after Sedan. Even assuming an OTL war until the above, if d'Aurelle's Armée de la Loire hadn't stopped its march towards Paris, his forces and Mac-Mahon's might have linked up outside of the capitol, and thus been able to keep the Prussians out of the imperial city. Considering the events of the OTL Paris Commune, its quite certain that the French citizenry would have risen up against the invading German forces (as they did at Metz, for example), and soon the German forces would have been forced to try to fight a war deep in enemy territory with their supply lines under continual harassment by partisan forces.

2. Harder to do than the above, but still doable. The best bet for the French would be to sit on the defensive along the Rhine, as Frossard called for, repeal the German attacks with their superior rifles, and then advance into the southern German states and 'liberate' them, hoping to bring Austria into the war at that point.

3. Fairly easy really. Between 1866 and 1870, right up into the last months and weeks before the war, there were plenty of opportunities for PODs which would have led to a different diplomatic situation and prevented the war from happening at all.
 

Anaxagoras

Banned
The outbreak of the Franco-Prussian War was so ridiculous that any number of PODs could have prevented it.
 
The outbreak of the Franco-Prussian War was so ridiculous that any number of PODs could have prevented it.
I'd say said ridiculousness means two things, first that Bismarck was looking for a war so he could fully unify Germany, and secondly that Napoleon III was looking for an excuse to give Prussia a bloody nose since it was becoming too powerful. IOW, avoiding OTL's war is easy, avoiding a Franco-Prussian war altogether will require a bit more work.
 
I'd say said ridiculousness means two things, first that Bismarck was looking for a war so he could fully unify Germany, and secondly that Napoleon III was looking for an excuse to give Prussia a bloody nose since it was becoming too powerful. IOW, avoiding OTL's war is easy, avoiding a Franco-Prussian war altogether will require a bit more work.

Louis-Napoléon missed his chance in 1866 when he decided, the day before his invasion was to start, not to intervene in the Austro-Prussian War.
 
Actually a Franco-Austrian Alliance was very much on the cards in the late 1860s as a way of keeping Prussia down. However Italy was the problem. Austria wanted Italy in on the pact, to make sure they wouldn't side with Berlin in a war situation. However bar public opinion (which the Sardinian ruling class didn't really care about at the time) the Italians were happy to be an 'ally in being', if it meant French troops left Rome. Something Napoleon III wouldn't do because he saw abandoning the Pope as the greatest insult he could throw his Catholic base. So its basically a feed back loop of mistrust.

Have a *Lateran Treaty signed in 1866-70 and I dare say Berlin might be a bit buggered. Only problem for Europe as a whole, such an alliance is 1) Wobbly due to Italy and 2) effectively sitting on a trap door. If it holds you've set up a *Great War scenario forty years early. Bismarck will look to Russia and her Balkan dreams to battle Austria, and maybe look to Britain to deal with a bullish and still intact Second Empire.

As time drags on, either the Austro-French alliance will weaken or popular dissent will see Germany form. This will probably trigger a military response. Cue the house of cards.
 
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