AHC: Democrats and Republicans switch

There seems to be some AH "conventional wisdom" that the major parties in the USA, or Canada, or (insert other country here), have switched positions over time, but for the life of me, I think this is both an exaggeration and an oversimplification.
I think it's more accurate to say that the issues that divided people were different - but anyway, I'm perfectly willing to admit that the current positions of the parties aren't set in stone, especially considering the historical connection of the Dems to the racist elements of the south and the Republicans linked with the Progressive movement.

It seems most likely that the "switch" occurs with the Republicans shifting left first, which may have a reaction which pushes the Dems to the Right, but I also believe there is room on the American political spectrum to be left of the early 20th century dems and still be pretty centrist.

The most obvious POD seems to be the much fabled "Third Term of Ted Roosevelt", in 1908, or 1912, or even 1916...but it's definitely not required.

There was a lot of good info available by searching and reading the TR threads, and the thinking seems to be that if a Progressive Republican wins in 1912 over Wilson or Clark, FDR could become a Progressive-Republican - and Hoover had contemplated running as a Democrat in 1920 (and Eisenhower in 1948).

So the challenge is a Progressive-Republican or Republican FDR, with Eisenhower running as a Democrat...

The two parties have their own wings in reality so who becomes what party gets a bit muddier. Would Johnson and Nixon both be Democrats in this circumstance? Would Kennedy be a Progressive-Republican?
 
I think the easiest thing is for Hughes carries California and conservative Democrats dominate the 1920a
Yeah I really like this POD...I'm not sure what his reelection chances were, but it could be Hughes (R) 1917-1925; followed by Hoover and or Al Smith (D); setting up FDR as a "Tammany busting" progressive republican?
 
The Democrats were always the “left”-wing party, and the Republicans the right. But the Democrats were a left-wing populist party, backed by farmers, working class, and immigrants — who were often very socially conservative. There is no comparing this position to how the Republicans are today; the GOP has always been the party most aligned with business, and even its most socially liberal position — abolitionism — represents their business interests. Even during the progressive era, it was always Democrats most inclined towards progressivism; for the Republican to turn into a left-wing party today, a few election switches won’t work.

What happened was the power centers of the party shifted to the cities - before that, the Democrats had always balanced their rural and urban wings out. The party on a national level became one backed by organized labor and city machines, thereby accepting a lot of socially liberal professionals who advocated for civil rights, disarmament, etc.

The cracks in the Solid South were appearing as early as 1928, when Hoover swept the region. You can say this is an anomaly, but by 1948 Dewey was coming within ten points of Truman’s lead in Upper South states like Virginia and Kentucky. Eisenhower swept most of the South in 52 and 56, and Nixon took most of the upper South while holding Kennedy close in 1960. That the Republican Party’s New Right wing — which attacked the New Deal consensus, backed social conservatism, and supported a hawkish Cold War stance — did not help, but it’s not surprising the New Right found its home in the GOP, which was always closer to their stances anyways.

For the Democrats to be a truly right-wing party today, you would need them to take the support of white collar workers, business interests, etc. But the support base of each party inclines them towards left- and right-wing policies respectively.
 
The Democrats were always the “left”-wing party, and the Republicans the right. But the Democrats were a left-wing populist party, backed by farmers, working class, and immigrants — who were often very socially conservative. There is no comparing this position to how the Republicans are today; the GOP has always been the party most aligned with business, and even its most socially liberal position — abolitionism — represents their business interests. Even during the progressive era, it was always Democrats most inclined towards progressivism; for the Republican to turn into a left-wing party today, a few election switches won’t work.

What happened was the power centers of the party shifted to the cities - before that, the Democrats had always balanced their rural and urban wings out. The party on a national level became one backed by organized labor and city machines, thereby accepting a lot of socially liberal professionals who advocated for civil rights, disarmament, etc.

The cracks in the Solid South were appearing as early as 1928, when Hoover swept the region. You can say this is an anomaly, but by 1948 Dewey was coming within ten points of Truman’s lead in Upper South states like Virginia and Kentucky. Eisenhower swept most of the South in 52 and 56, and Nixon took most of the upper South while holding Kennedy close in 1960. That the Republican Party’s New Right wing — which attacked the New Deal consensus, backed social conservatism, and supported a hawkish Cold War stance — did not help, but it’s not surprising the New Right found its home in the GOP, which was always closer to their stances anyways.

For the Democrats to be a truly right-wing party today, you would need them to take the support of white collar workers, business interests, etc. But the support base of each party inclines them towards left- and right-wing policies respectively.
Fantastic post, thank you.

The Dems inevitably had to adopt progressive policies to placate their base, but this led to the split with the solid south over the issues of race, and the south flipped, as you pointed out.

But could the Republicans have beaten the Dems to the punch? And pushed through civil rights legislation, because it aligns with business interests, thereby bringing new black voters into the Republican party and cementing the "Solid South" for the Dems?

I guess I'm positing a TL where the Dems are considered to be the more socially conservative of the two, and social issues are a bigger difference between the two parties than economic ones. They would both be pro-business, I imagine.
 
The Democrats were always the “left”-wing party, and the Republicans the right.
The latter was definitely not clear in the 1850s-'60s. Get someone more Radical Republican than Grant, or shift Grant leftward, driving the rapidly strengthening Gilded Age corporatist wing to the Democrats, and the radical elements of the Republican coalition could grab on to the populist affirmations Lincoln tossed out, such as his remark that Labor is prior to Capital, fuse them with Gettysburg and the fact of the Emancipation Proclamation (glossing over his equivocations and delays and the whole "return the slaves back to their owners" mess early in the war), batten on tight to the Free Soilers and the Abolitionist legacy, embrace western territory feminism, hash out industrial era populism with friendliness to labor organization and cooperative schemes and a general populist democratic-republican regulatory mentality (by all means embracing industrial progress, just asserting the commons ought to regulate it in the public interest) and we have a pretty firm grip on a huge bloc of voters.

Don't think Grant can in retrospect become the standard bearer for a deeply populist-left tradition? The man affirmed Henry George's "single-tax" regulatory reformism. Georgism is not I think a properly worked out radical standing point, but it is a place from which one can move to a more comprehensive balancing of the common welfare versus private profit on a social-democratic basis, once one gets past the idea that property in land is special and peculiar and that all other forms of wealth are simply earned fairly. A Georgist lean can set up the template for regulating concentrated capital of any category.

Grant was hardly an outlier either; lots of respectable Republicans were more or less Georgist in this period. There would be a split between conservative Georgists who do think landed property alone is invidiously different but all other forms are sacred, versus populist-pragmatism perceiving sauce for the goose is sauce for the gander.

The price they'd pay is losing the allegiance of a smaller number of people spwho are powerfully influential, who would go to the Democrats and find that a lot of Jackson's rhetoric favors a Libertarian-esque laissez faire. Realistically though, corporatist Republicans actually leaned a lot on Republican dominance favoring industrial protectionism--no nation fuses its industrialist expansionist wing with radical anti-regulation rhetoric until it achieves a very dominant position in world trade then of course they retroactively rewrite history to obscure all the protectionism. So they might hesitate to jump the GOP ship for a long time.

The R's clinging to the Radical element would preempt the waves of OTL breakaway third parties--Greely's Liberal Republicans, Greenbacks, Populists, spanning the post-bellum-1900s decades, and perhaps absorb Knights of Labor and so forth. There will always be factions to the left of a leftist GOP to make the Republicans look moderate and cause moderate conservatives to be concilatory.

The side effect is a stronger, earlier recovery of the Democrats as they gain robber baron patronage and affirm themselves the real Jacksonian Democrats and claim the mantle of Jefferson with such rubrics as "aristocracy of merit" and of course his reasons for backing away from abolition--they'd be glossing over other things Jefferson did and said of course.

And OTL, it was a fact that Democrats had a lock on embracing immigrants and incorporating them into the city political machines. But perhaps that lock can flip by the 1880s or so, with the Republicans relaxing their qualms about Papists and wrong categories of ethnicity and the Democrats harmonizing well with southern white supremacy for a consistent deploring of everything not suitably "Anglo-Saxon." The South had relatively less immigration, and less Germanic influence, their ethnic pedigree ran farther back to pre-Revolutionary settlement. With exceptions such as Louisiana and Maryland, less Catholic versus more recent waves of 1848 German and other refugees from the ascendency of reaction quashing the revolutionary wave--a big element of the Republican coalition, those Germans--and Irish-who settled largely in the north but embraced the Democrats. However what if the Irish flip, particularly as populist-radical Republicans take a more Anglophobic stance--not of course seriously pushing for war, but laying on the 4th of July rhetoric thick, boasting of American republicanism versus British monarchism, and in the sphere of private industrial development, taking pride in a somewhat German influenced pragmatic social democratic based regulatory common sense as opposed to British preaching hard line laissez-faire marginalist economism? If the GOP is the one taunting the Lion and if they accept the Irish as perfectly good republican (and Republican) raw material, then Tammany, or rather a counterpart reconstruction supplanting it, can be a machine for the Republicans. The Boston Brahmins are in a panic as they think the Republicans are leaving them... and flip Democratic eventually claiming to be more traditional than the Republican mob with their indiscriminate intermarrying of God knows what huddled masses from God knows what priest-ridden reaches of east and southern Europe and wild Irish and beer-drinking Germans all cavorting together.

The Solid South stays solid under a frankly neo-aristocratic Democratic banner touting the natural rule of the best, freely percolating to the top under sound Jeffersonian-Jacksonian rules, deploring the insane extremism of Radical Republicans. Upshot is by the 1890s it is a coin flip, typically in two-term blocks, which party elects the President; House and Senate flip back and forth but the latter tends to be Democratic-corporatist.

See here, I have voted D all my adult life, since 1984. I'd love to believe as you do that the D's have always been consistently progressive versus the other guys, but the facts of history just don't justify it. In their origin the Republicans had some pretty progressive elements hitched to their miscellaneous bandwagon team, and while the Age of Jackson can be portrayed in quite a progressive light, we have to acknowledge that the Democratic coalition was first of all an instrument of effective national power that involved some quite reactionary planks too. Arguably, if we forgive Jefferson certain wrong calls (not just tenatively and queasily favoring continuing slavery, but some distinctly anti-urban notions ill suiting a true democrat that have been sticks to beat real democracy with for centuries) overall the Democrat-Republicans might stand with a label of being more populist-visionary than the Federalists, but the Jacksonian reshuffle largely erased the overall claims of D's to be more democratically progressive than Whigs, and the Civil War totally leveled that field, or rather raised the Republicans to a clear mandate--flawed of course. In most of the 20th century it was overall, integrating all the diverse factions of both major parties, a wash. Democrats had stronger claims on being the really democratic and humanist-enlightenment party in some respects, Republicans in others, and both fostered quite nasty reaction along with quite enlightened progressivism.

Overall I'd agree that the Republicans essentially took the stance of being the party of corporate big business without apology and with much affirmation this is right and good, and that has consistently branded the outcomes of the overall shakeout of the many headed hydra of factions on their side. And in recent generations (I really can keep it decisively tipped in demonstration without going past 1990) that wealth uber alles banner has only gone up higher and higher and swept away all rivals. But if we damn the Republicans for ultimately falling in line behind that standard, with or without listening to the qualifications various wings put out in dissent, we can hardly see the Democrats as some sort of night and day opposite either. Neither duopoly party can shake off the charge they are both parties of the moneyed elites first and anything else second.

So that weak polarization is good enough for me to on the whole favor the D's in most eras, but it is ludicrous to say the R's were inherently a right wing gang from the get go. It didn't take long for the right to capture the ball and keep it, but certainly there was potential for the R's to corner the left-radical banner and concede the reactionary one to the D's who would happily grab it and achieve a lot more power than they held until the 1910s.

With a left R party, attracting the immigrants and Catholics and a consistent social-democratic analysis challenging marginalist doctrines, putting forth a comprehensive plan for shared social progress on a firmly democratic basis, and a D party being the champion of rights of property and old-fashioned "republic not a democracy" federalist separation of powers married to a consistently racist hierarchal view of human nature, it would clearly be some Republican seizing leadership for New Deal type reforms in a version of the Depression. Regionally speaking we'd flip the pattern of OTL where the Solid South both backstopped FDR's overall power and reined it in--Republicans would win over minorities in the South, but a left wing of the Democrats being the counterpart of moderate dalliances with New Dealism in basically conservative Midwest states. The South would be the counterpart of Robert Taft's home base of OTL.

I've argued before in many threads the notion that Republicans typical of OTL 1920s could deliver superior results on Civil Rights than FDR-Truman-JFK-LBJ sequence of Democrats OTL shipwrecks on the fact that the same Dixie ties that compromised this sequence OTL also gave assertive D leaders, especially Southern ones such as Truman and Johnson, the leverage to accomplish overturning Jim Crow at last and make it stick. If we have say Dewey winning in 1940 (in an ATL where FDR's claim to a controversial third term is not backstopped by a European war, with Hitler butterflied away or defeated or on the ropes) or 1948, and actually following through on the long back-burned Republican Lincoln legacy, it is a bunch of outsiders attacking the South again, and I think they'd just hunker down and be quite effectively resistant; it was better OTL that Southerners led the CR bandwagon and when they did, it worked (to a certain limited extent anyway, but there is no reason to think Republicans would have effectively driven it farther either).

By that logic I may have painted myself into a nasty corner here, if there is never any leverage for a more consistently and persistent anti-racist Republican coalition in Dixie. Now I firmly think every region, be it ever so reactionary, has always produced progressives anyway, just as progressive regions have their reactionary dissidents who might be outnumbered and outflanked but don't shut up anyway.

Anyway, I can't totally dismiss the idea of a 1910s or post-WWII surge of the R's to the left, though by either of these periods, it might be harder to justify the D's shifting to the right in toto--the Dixiecrats are right there of course.

But I think the best opportunity is right near the beginning, in the mid 1860s, for the R's to embrace the left and shed the right onto their Democratic shadows.
 

raharris1973

Gone Fishin'
@David T always brings up a quote citing examples from Cleveland's time showing the Republicans were already 'right' of the Democrats by then.

I wonder if it's inevitable for the Civil War and Reconstruction Republicans to be as pro-capital versus labor during the Gilded Age as they were.

How long did the noted "Radical Republicans" of Reconstruction like Sumner, Wade and Stevens live and serve in Congress. And - freedmen's civil rights aside, how progressive were they on labor versus capital issues and the right of legislatures to regulate the economy for community benefit over the entirety of their service?
 
I have long argued that there never was a time when the Democrats were the more "conservative" party than their opponents where economic issues were concerned. (This is an important qualification.) i See my post at https://www.alternatehistory.com/fo...onservative-party.421348/page-2#post-15208325

***

A biographer of the wealthy merchants of New York wrote in the 1860s:
"It is a very common fact that for thirty-four years [since the revival of
two-party politics in 1828] very few merchants of the first class have
been Democrats. The mass of large and little merchants have, like a flock
of sheep, gathered either in the Federalist, Whig, Clay, or Republican
folds. The Democratic merchants could have easily been stored in a large
Eighth Avenue railroad car."

Quoted in Seymour Martin Lipset, *Political Man: The Social Bases of
Politics*, p. 312. Lipset was writing in the 1950s when there were many
more liberal Republicans and conservative Democrats than there are today,
and when the rhetoric of each party was centrist. He warned his readers
not to be misled by this fact; as he noted, even if an individual
Republican candidate is to the left of an individual Democrat, the parties
still rely on different bases of support, in terms of classes, ethnic
groups, and religions (p. 329):

"The differences between the social bases of the two major parties which
have held up for more than a century and a half suggest that those who
believe in the Tweedledee-Tweedledum theory of American politics have been
taken in by campaign rhetoric and miss the underlying basis of the
cleavage. It is especially ironic that the Marxist critics of American
politics who pride themselves on differentiating between substructure and
ideology have mistaken the ideology for the substructure." He adds in a
footnote:

"The conservative strata, on the other hand, have repeatedly recognized
that the differences between the parties are fundamental, even though in
given historical situations the Republicans may nominate a candidate who
is as liberal as, or even more liberal than, his Democratic rival. Thus
in 1904 the progressive Republican Theodore Roosevelt ran against the
conservative Democrat Alton Parker for the presidency. And the New York
*Sun*, the newspaper with closest ties to Wall Street, wrote: 'We prefer
the impulsive candidate of the party of conservatism to the conservative
candidate of the party which the business interests regard as permanently
and dangerously impulsive.'

"It should be remembered that it was a conservative Democrat, Grover
Cleveland, who, in 1886, sent the first message to Congress on labor. In
it he urged that a commission on labor disputes be set up which could
investigate and even arbitrate if so requested by the parties involved or
by the state government. In 1888 in his last message to Congress after
being defeated for re-election, Cleveland denounced 'the communism of
combined wealth and capital, the outgrowth of overwhelming cupidity and
selfishness...not less dangerous than the communism of oppressed poverty
and toil...'...It is important to note that Cleveland was much more
conservative in his second term of office when he no longer had to
anticipate facing the voters than in his first one, and that he was
repudiated by the Democratic party at its next convention in 1896. In
fact, Cleveland was the only President elected in his own right to be
repudiated by a convention of his own party while still holding office.."

Lipset also notes that even what seems to be the most "conservative"
stance of pre-New Deal Democrats--their hostile attitude toward blacks--
reflected their lower-class (white) basis of support. Clement
Vallandigham, for example, argued in 1861 that "The great dividing line
was always between capital and labor" and that the "monied interest" used
anti-slavery and sectionalism as a trick to weaken its opponents....

...the class divergences between the parties do not necessarily dictate
either activist government or laissez-faire. In the nineteenth century,
the lower classes were more concerned with stopping federal programs that
they regarded as favoring the rich (high tariffs and the internal
improvements they paid for, the national bank, etc.) while business was
interested in positive help from the government, not mere laissez-faire.
(Here too there were exceptions: workers in protected industries, like
steel, favored high tariffs, and poor farmers who needed roads to connect
them with the rest of the world favored internal improvements; conversely,
some busines interests, which relied on the import of cheap raw materials,
favored free trade.) In the twentieth century, the lower classes have
generally supported a more activist federal government (in terms of
supporting organized labor, social insurance, etc.) while business has
theoretically been more in favor of laissez-faire (though in practice it
still wants positive assistance from the federal government). The point,
though, is that in both eras the Democrats have generally been more in
favor of action--or, in the nineteenth century, inaction--to benefit the
lower classes, and their opponents (Federalist, Whig, or Republican) in
favor of a more pro-business government (which they would of course argue
benefits the economy as a whole, and therefore all classes). In that
sense, the Democrats have always been the party of the economic "left,"
the Federalists, Whigs, and Republicans of the "right." Conservative
accusations that Democrats are engaging in "class warfare" go back more
than a century and a half, at least to Andrew Jackson's Bank veto message,
where he scandalized conservatives by saying that the Bank oppressed "the
humble members of society - the farmers, mechanics, and laborers."

***
Since people often bring up TR and the Progressive Era, I'll quote another old post of mine:

"... even when TR was president in OTL, congressional Democrats often provided more support for his "Square Deal" policies than did Republicans. David Sarasohn has noted in The Party of Reform, p. 3, "From 1905 to 1908, the nation grew accustomed to the spectacle of congressional Democrats providing the strongest support for a Republican president "...

"Indeed, it would be more accurate to say that congressional Republicans in the early twentieth century were the party of Joe Cannon, not of TR. Note that Norris' anti-Cannon coup of 1910 depended primarily on Democrats for its success: "coalition of 42 progressive Republicans and the entire delegation of 149 Democrats in a revolt..." https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Joseph_Gurney_Cannon ..." https://www.alternatehistory.com/fo...es-president-in-the-20s.474806/#post-19454267
 
I have long argued that there never was a time when the Democrats were the more "conservative" party than their opponents where economic issues were concerned. (This is an important qualification.) i See my post at https://www.alternatehistory.com/fo...onservative-party.421348/page-2#post-15208325

***

A biographer of the wealthy merchants of New York wrote in the 1860s:
"It is a very common fact that for thirty-four years [since the revival of
two-party politics in 1828] very few merchants of the first class have
been Democrats. The mass of large and little merchants have, like a flock
of sheep, gathered either in the Federalist, Whig, Clay, or Republican
folds. The Democratic merchants could have easily been stored in a large
Eighth Avenue railroad car."

Quoted in Seymour Martin Lipset, *Political Man: The Social Bases of
Politics*, p. 312. Lipset was writing in the 1950s when there were many
more liberal Republicans and conservative Democrats than there are today,
and when the rhetoric of each party was centrist. He warned his readers
not to be misled by this fact; as he noted, even if an individual
Republican candidate is to the left of an individual Democrat, the parties
still rely on different bases of support, in terms of classes, ethnic
groups, and religions (p. 329):

"The differences between the social bases of the two major parties which
have held up for more than a century and a half suggest that those who
believe in the Tweedledee-Tweedledum theory of American politics have been
taken in by campaign rhetoric and miss the underlying basis of the
cleavage. It is especially ironic that the Marxist critics of American
politics who pride themselves on differentiating between substructure and
ideology have mistaken the ideology for the substructure." He adds in a
footnote:

"The conservative strata, on the other hand, have repeatedly recognized
that the differences between the parties are fundamental, even though in
given historical situations the Republicans may nominate a candidate who
is as liberal as, or even more liberal than, his Democratic rival. Thus
in 1904 the progressive Republican Theodore Roosevelt ran against the
conservative Democrat Alton Parker for the presidency. And the New York
*Sun*, the newspaper with closest ties to Wall Street, wrote: 'We prefer
the impulsive candidate of the party of conservatism to the conservative
candidate of the party which the business interests regard as permanently
and dangerously impulsive.'

"It should be remembered that it was a conservative Democrat, Grover
Cleveland, who, in 1886, sent the first message to Congress on labor. In
it he urged that a commission on labor disputes be set up which could
investigate and even arbitrate if so requested by the parties involved or
by the state government. In 1888 in his last message to Congress after
being defeated for re-election, Cleveland denounced 'the communism of
combined wealth and capital, the outgrowth of overwhelming cupidity and
selfishness...not less dangerous than the communism of oppressed poverty
and toil...'...It is important to note that Cleveland was much more
conservative in his second term of office when he no longer had to
anticipate facing the voters than in his first one, and that he was
repudiated by the Democratic party at its next convention in 1896. In
fact, Cleveland was the only President elected in his own right to be
repudiated by a convention of his own party while still holding office.."

Lipset also notes that even what seems to be the most "conservative"
stance of pre-New Deal Democrats--their hostile attitude toward blacks--
reflected their lower-class (white) basis of support. Clement
Vallandigham, for example, argued in 1861 that "The great dividing line
was always between capital and labor" and that the "monied interest" used
anti-slavery and sectionalism as a trick to weaken its opponents....

...the class divergences between the parties do not necessarily dictate
either activist government or laissez-faire. In the nineteenth century,
the lower classes were more concerned with stopping federal programs that
they regarded as favoring the rich (high tariffs and the internal
improvements they paid for, the national bank, etc.) while business was
interested in positive help from the government, not mere laissez-faire.
(Here too there were exceptions: workers in protected industries, like
steel, favored high tariffs, and poor farmers who needed roads to connect
them with the rest of the world favored internal improvements; conversely,
some busines interests, which relied on the import of cheap raw materials,
favored free trade.) In the twentieth century, the lower classes have
generally supported a more activist federal government (in terms of
supporting organized labor, social insurance, etc.) while business has
theoretically been more in favor of laissez-faire (though in practice it
still wants positive assistance from the federal government). The point,
though, is that in both eras the Democrats have generally been more in
favor of action--or, in the nineteenth century, inaction--to benefit the
lower classes, and their opponents (Federalist, Whig, or Republican) in
favor of a more pro-business government (which they would of course argue
benefits the economy as a whole, and therefore all classes). In that
sense, the Democrats have always been the party of the economic "left,"
the Federalists, Whigs, and Republicans of the "right." Conservative
accusations that Democrats are engaging in "class warfare" go back more
than a century and a half, at least to Andrew Jackson's Bank veto message,
where he scandalized conservatives by saying that the Bank oppressed "the
humble members of society - the farmers, mechanics, and laborers."

***
Since people often bring up TR and the Progressive Era, I'll quote another old post of mine:

"... even when TR was president in OTL, congressional Democrats often provided more support for his "Square Deal" policies than did Republicans. David Sarasohn has noted in The Party of Reform, p. 3, "From 1905 to 1908, the nation grew accustomed to the spectacle of congressional Democrats providing the strongest support for a Republican president "...

"Indeed, it would be more accurate to say that congressional Republicans in the early twentieth century were the party of Joe Cannon, not of TR. Note that Norris' anti-Cannon coup of 1910 depended primarily on Democrats for its success: "coalition of 42 progressive Republicans and the entire delegation of 149 Democrats in a revolt..." https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Joseph_Gurney_Cannon ..." https://www.alternatehistory.com/fo...es-president-in-the-20s.474806/#post-19454267
Thank you for the post! I've read through lots of the threads and really appreciate your input and knowledge on the era.

I completely agree that the Republicans and Democrats have not switched, although my knowledge on the subject is admittedly limited.

I'm asking the question, could we make this myth a reality in an alternate TL? Was there ever a point when they could've switched, would a Progressive Republican in the White House during WWI mean a Republican FDR, and would a Republican FDR and Democrat Eisenhower complete a shift?

There was a time when African-Americans generally voted Republican and the middle and upper class white southerners (the ones able to vote) voted Democrat. Could anything have kept this the case?
 

raharris1973

Gone Fishin'
Obviously opinions are often formed early in life, shaped by early sources, but here's kind of how I saw things by the time I was reading my middle school American history texts-

Jeffersonian Republicans are the same party that morphed into the modern Democrats

The Federalist Party died but most of its supporters and agenda went to the Whigs. The Whigs died but most of its supporters and agenda went to the Republicans.

Jeffersonian Republicans were more for the little guy and to the left of the Hamiltonian federalists - therefore I tended to sympathize with them more.

In Lincoln's time politics wasn't really divided left and right on a class basis, slavery was the most salient issue, in the Civil War and Reconstruction Lincoln and Republicans are the good guys compared to Democrats of the time.

In 20th century subsequent history, Democrats are more relatively to the left by allowing the little guy's elected legislature to regulate business than Republicans.


Now I would concede that the "right-leaning" Federalists and Whigs were more pro-'big government' than the left-leaning Democratic-Republican opponents of their day. Whereas, by Wilson's administration, the Democrats on the comparative had become the big government party had to the Republicans more limited government philosophy on the right.

But - I think that's because in 1700s and 1800s the concept of big government doing something for the or giving something to a common person rather than rich interest groups hadn't been invented yet. So the party of the common person in those times wanted government to leave people alone, because the big government programs of the time weren't individual household welfare and social insurance programs.

In the 20th century, the situation is reversed, with the proclaimers of small government being most opposed to federal help for normal or needy individuals or families, and big government consisting of such transfers.
 
I have only heard this switch theory in regard to the USA.
And I did not find it that convincing.
In certain aspects maybe, but not totally.
But I can't think of another country where the two leaders of the two biggest parties once used to belong to the other party.
Or even imagine a scenario like that anywhere else.
 
I have only heard this switch theory in regard to the USA.
And I did not find it that convincing.
In certain aspects maybe, but not totally.
But I can't think of another country where the two leaders of the two biggest parties once used to belong to the other party.
Or even imagine a scenario like that anywhere else.
It's a common trope in Canada that the "Liberals and Conservatives switched" which isnt really true IMHO but is rooted in the fact that 1) the Conservatives used to be called the Progressive Conservatives and 2) traditionally the Liberals were pro-American, while the Conservatives were pro-British, while now the Conservatives are more pro-American.

In this case, it's like how the Dems and Republicans have switched sides on the perceptions of the racial issues: it betrays the fact that this shift didnt accompany a shift on the economic issues.
 
Fantastic post, thank you.

Thank you!

But could the Republicans have beaten the Dems to the punch? And pushed through civil rights legislation, because it aligns with business interests, thereby bringing new black voters into the Republican party and cementing the "Solid South" for the Dems?

I guess I'm positing a TL where the Dems are considered to be the more socially conservative of the two, and social issues are a bigger difference between the two parties than economic ones. They would both be pro-business, I imagine.

I think what you are thinking about is kind of a reversal of the dynamic of the 90s -- where the neoliberal, (more) socially liberal faction of the Democrats were in control, and the Reaganite (conservative) faction of the Republicans in control as well.

Much of the reason civil rights was passed by the Democrats (as opposed to the Republicans) was that the party had absorbed a large number of African-Americans since the New Deal. Prior to the 1920s, agriculture in the South was primarily done by poor whites and African-Americans who were kept in a state of semi-serfdom via sharecropping; as agriculture mechanized, blacks en masse to Northern cities. This gave Democrats an edge vis-a-vis the black vote, and the New Deal was overwhelmingly popular amongst African-Americans: FDR's vote total amongst blacks went up from 21% in 1932 to 71% in 1936.

The solution to this, I imagine, would be African-Americans migrating to rural (preferably Western or Midwestern) areas -- where the Republicans had an advantage. You concurrently need a Republican -- ideally a conservative-type administration (conservative Republicans were always more sympathetic to blacks than were the progressives, odd as that might seem). The Democrats, simultaneously, need to be dominated by their rural faction. I imagine this might lead to a much different America as today, but maybe I'm just unimaginative :)
 
Various control-freak movements including anti-alcohol, racialist thinking were originally reformist/progressive views in the victorian/progressive era so it only sounds odd if you hadn't read up on 19th century history...
 

Thomas1195

Banned
It's a common trope in Canada that the "Liberals and Conservatives switched" which isnt really true IMHO but is rooted in the fact that 1) the Conservatives used to be called the Progressive Conservatives and 2) traditionally the Liberals were pro-American, while the Conservatives were pro-British, while now the Conservatives are more pro-American.

In this case, it's like how the Dems and Republicans have switched sides on the perceptions of the racial issues: it betrays the fact that this shift didnt accompany a shift on the economic issues.
@durante @Shevek23 @raharris1973 industrialists/capitalists, middle-class reformers and the working class sharing the same political party is not unthinkable. It was literally the case for the British Whig/Liberal Party during the 18th-19th century, at least until Irish Home Rule. It was also the case for the Republican Party (there were lots of pro-labour/pro-reform Republicans like James Weaver, Butler, Wade, or Banks and certain Massachusetts Know Nothings, although less clear, before the Grant Presidency. Such parties could have either moved right or left.

The Liberal Party could have moved rightwards under a different leader during the 1880s. Similarly, the Republican Party could have moved left under certain situations, and also under a different President.
 
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The Democrats were always the “left”-wing party, and the Republicans the right. But the Democrats were a left-wing populist party, backed by farmers, working class, and immigrants — who were often very socially conservative. There is no comparing this position to how the Republicans are today; the GOP has always been the party most aligned with business, and even its most socially liberal position — abolitionism — represents their business interests. Even during the progressive era, it was always Democrats most inclined towards progressivism; for the Republican to turn into a left-wing party today, a few election switches won’t work.

That's not correct. The Democratic party always had a populist streak owing to its Jacksonian roots, but the Bourbon Democrats of the gilded age and the 1904 and 1924 elections are enough proof of a very strong conservative faction within the Democratic party. Furthermore, the GOP had for a long time a very strong progressive faction, and both parties had your run of the mill politician representing their community's provincial and communal interests, along with special interests. I don't think it's fair to have called either the Dems or the GOP before the mid early mid 20th century definitively liberal or conservative, and even when it was becoming more solidified, the gap was still much less than today.


Furthermore, I would say that neither party flipped, but they more transformed. Neither of them would be recognizable to their party members of generations ago, as the America of today and even the decades past is of an entirely different ilk than the America of a century or more ago.
 
IMO it is precisely the two times in the twentieth century where the Democrats most attempted to appeal to conservatives--1904 and 1924--which show the utter hopelessness of the task. First of all, 1904--see David Sarasohn, The Party of Reform, pp. xiv-xv.:

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As for 1924, by nominating the Wall Street lawyer Davis, the Democrats managed to get 28.8 percent of the popular vote and to finish not just behind Coolidge but behind La Follette in a dozen midwestern and western states. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/1924_United_States_presidential_election

Again, I'll quote the New York Sun, the journal considered the voice of Wall Street, on why it was supporting TR over Parker in 1904: "We prefer the impulsive candidate of the party of conservatism to the conservative candidate of the party which the business interests regard as permanently and dangerously impulsive." https://books.google.com/books?id=X43uHzjM_GIC&pg=PA82
 
BTW, even John W. Davis and Alton Parker had not-entirely-reactionary records at the time they were nominated:

"After serving in the West Virginia House of Representatives, he [Davis] served two terms in the United States Congress, where he soon became known as the ablest lawyer in Congress. During his time m Congress, he championed the cause of workmen's compensation as an appropriate regulation of interstate commerce and favored free trade, despite the fact that his own constituents felt threatened by it.Perhaps the high point of his progressive record came when he offered a bill to limit the issuance of injunctions against strikers in labor disputes. It eventually became a part of the Clayton Antitrust Act.

"In August 1913, Davis was appointed by President Woodrow Wilson as Solicitor General of the United States. True to form, he excelled in that post, as he had in each of is other career opportunities. During his service
there he won a significant victory for black voters by convincing the United States Supreme Court that an Oklahoma "grandfather clause" exempting from a literacy test those voters whose ancestors had been eligible to vote prior to January 22, 1866 violated the Fifteenth Amendment." https://scholarlycommons.law.wlu.edu/cgi/viewcontent.cgi?article=1807&context=wlulr

As for Parker, "As a judge, Parker was notable for independently researching each case that he heard. He was generally considered to be pro-labor and was an active supporter of social reform legislation, for example upholding a maximum-hours law as constitutional." https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Alton_B._Parker (That was the *Lochner* case...)
 
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