AHC: Debilitating Jewish emigration from Israel, post 1980

raharris1973

Gone Fishin'
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Here's the challenge, have circumstances arise, but only after the Israeli-Egyptian peace treaty, that prompt Jewish Israelis to choose to emigrate in such numbers that it reduces Israeli GDP and/or military power to a substantial degree.

The circumstances need to arise after Camp David, not before, so having the Yom Kippur War escalate or go worse won't cut it for this.

...go..
 

CaliGuy

Banned
Can this be a FHC? After all, with the growing overpopulation as well as growing rightist influence in Israel, I could certainly see large-scale emigration from Israel occur throughout the next 100 years (2017 to 2117). Indeed, many liberal Israelis might not want to live in a state which, in addition to its growing overpopulation problem, is unwilling to make peace with the Palestinians and is also more and more dominated by Ultra-Orthodox Jews.

If such a large-scale emigration from Israel will occur, then I could certainly see it hurting Israel a bit--though not to the extent that you are looking for here. Indeed, this might be especially visible in the fact that less Israelis would be capable of performing high-skilled jobs.
 

raharris1973

Gone Fishin'
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Well what you are describing is overpopulation correcting itself through emigration, and liberal Jewish Israeli alienation from other Jewish sectors.

Is anything driven by Israel's external enemies, Palestinians or Arab citizens able to have that kind of impact or a bigger impact?
 
Syria and Iraq successfully unite in the late 1970s and annexes Khuzestan and gets nuclear weapons in the 1990s. a Border Incident escalates into full scale war , Leading both sides using nuclear and chemical weapons on each other
 

CaliGuy

Banned
Well what you are describing is overpopulation correcting itself through emigration, and liberal Jewish Israeli alienation from other Jewish sectors.

Yes; correct!

Of course, even with large-scale liberal emigration, overpopulation will still be a large problem in Israel because right-wingers will continue to have large numbers of children--thus more than compensating Israel (in terms of total numbers) for the departure of these liberals.

Is anything driven by Israel's external enemies, Palestinians or Arab citizens able to have that kind of impact or a bigger impact?

Sure--specifically, they could destroy Israel with the help of ASBs. Without ASBs, though, it's certainly not happening.
 
Some possibilities

Israel strips the Haredim of their privileges. They start to make them work, stop subsidizing their schools, learn a modern curriculum and start drafting them. As this threatens the groups existence, they leave. Since the Haredi have the most Jewish babies even a small migration will have a big impact

Have any major Islamiccountry develop the bomb and an anti-Israel position. Iran, Iraq, Turkey, Pakistan it wouldn't matter. All they need is the bomb, the ability to deliver it and the real threat of their use. The possibility of being wiped out is enough to make many question living in the country

Continue the failed economic policies of the 1970s. Israel is a small country with few opportunities. Any economic slowdown will make the people look overseas

The Soviet Union holds together. This prevents the influx of Soviet Jews While not emigration, the lost of immigrants would be a body blow. As this means that the defense burdens on the remaining Jews increases, it will encourage emmigration to some extent
 

raharris1973

Gone Fishin'
Donor
Monthly Donor
Have any major Islamiccountry develop the bomb and an anti-Israel position. Iran, Iraq, Turkey, Pakistan it wouldn't matter. All they need is the bomb, the ability to deliver it and the real threat of their use. The possibility of being wiped out is enough to make many question living in the country

Why has not Pakistan's arsenal done this?
 

CaliGuy

Banned
Have any major Islamiccountry develop the bomb and an anti-Israel position. Iran, Iraq, Turkey, Pakistan it wouldn't matter. All they need is the bomb, the ability to deliver it and the real threat of their use. The possibility of being wiped out is enough to make many question living in the country
Umm ... Pakistan already has nuclear weapons since at least 1998.
 
Some possibilities

Israel strips the Haredim of their privileges. They start to make them work, stop subsidizing their schools, learn a modern curriculum and start drafting them. As this threatens the groups existence, they leave. Since the Haredi have the most Jewish babies even a small migration will have a big impact

Have any major Islamiccountry develop the bomb and an anti-Israel position. Iran, Iraq, Turkey, Pakistan it wouldn't matter. All they need is the bomb, the ability to deliver it and the real threat of their use. The possibility of being wiped out is enough to make many question living in the country

Continue the failed economic policies of the 1970s. Israel is a small country with few opportunities. Any economic slowdown will make the people look overseas

The Soviet Union holds together. This prevents the influx of Soviet Jews While not emigration, the lost of immigrants would be a body blow. As this means that the defense burdens on the remaining Jews increases, it will encourage emmigration to some extent
Umm ... Pakistan already has nuclear weapons since at least 1998.


And the rest of the equation? The ability to target Israel and the real threat of their use. Pakistan doesn't have the fanatical regime that would actually use them against Israel. They're nuclear weapons are a rational deterrent to India. For most of the time, Israel was out of Pakistani missile range anyway.

Now have the Taliban take over Pakistan and then see what happens. Or give it to Saddam and see if he doesn't take Tel Aviv with him
 

raharris1973

Gone Fishin'
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The Soviet Union had the ability to target Israel with nuclear weapons, armed its frontline enemies from the 1950s on and threatened to bomb Israel during the Suez and Yom Kippur Wars. That did not cause emigration in a panic though.
 
And the rest of the equation? The ability to target Israel and the real threat of their use. Pakistan doesn't have the fanatical regime that would actually use them against Israel. They're nuclear weapons are a rational deterrent to India. For most of the time, Israel was out of Pakistani missile range anyway.

Now have the Taliban take over Pakistan and then see what happens. Or give it to Saddam and see if he doesn't take Tel Aviv with him

How about a nuclear war between Israel and Iran?

If Iran had second-strike capability (it has plenty of space to hide its missiles), Israel would be toast.
 

CaliGuy

Banned
The Soviet Union had the ability to target Israel with nuclear weapons, armed its frontline enemies from the 1950s on and threatened to bomb Israel during the Suez and Yom Kippur Wars. That did not cause emigration in a panic though.
So, it looks like an actual nuclear war is needed for this. :(
 
Maybe an Israeli Civil War between the ultraorthodox Jewish sector, and a coalition of Liberal Jewish and Palestinian forces?
 
Syria and Iraq successfully unite in the late 1970s and annexes Khuzestan and gets nuclear weapons in the 1990s. a Border Incident escalates into full scale war , Leading both sides using nuclear and chemical weapons on each other


Basically I think growing fear of regional enemies and a future conflict would be most likely to cause mass emigration. It wouldn't be necessary IMO for actual war, just growing strength of potential enemies. Instead of an Iran-Iraq war, have Syria and Iraq unite and then ally themselves with post revolutionary Iran against Israel. Meanwhile, in Egypt, Sadat gets overthrown by the very generals he had killed in 1981. Subsequently Egypt rearms with Soviet and Libyan help. Just knowing that a Great Big Showdown is looming, with Israel facing the most formidable coalition ever, might suffice to get many jews to leave. Even in the wake of the '73 war, which turned out not so badly for Israel, it was said that "many Israelis were considering leaving their country."
 
The Soviet Union had the ability to target Israel with nuclear weapons, armed its frontline enemies from the 1950s on and threatened to bomb Israel during the Suez and Yom Kippur Wars. That did not cause emigration in a panic though.

Israel long relied on the US to deter the USSR or limit its options in the Mideast. Soviet armed arab forces only began to be effective in '73; they could've been much more so in the '80s, had the arabs or muslims not been fighting one another or, in the case of Egypt, at peace with Israel. Had the arabs remained united against Israel, and utilized their full potential for this struggle.......I wouldn't have wanted to be a resident of Israel.
 
Black Panthers movement does not succeed. This will probably make the moroccans and tunisians go back or emigrate to France or Canada.
 
The threat of war does not seem to make Israelis leave. The typical resonse is for expats to return to Israel to join their units. If the haredi welfare burden becomes too great we could see a loss of the high performing entrepeneurs . This would be similar to the Europe's loss of young university students who have no jobs and do not want to pay for a welfare state
 
Well, if their economy remains tightly controlled and statist without any of the reforms whatsoever during the 1980s under the Likud-National Liberal government, then I can see economic conditions sort of replicating a mix of post-Apartheid South Africa and modern France, in which a labour aristocracy occupies such a position of power that it leads to high unemployment among a mostly Mizrahi underclass which may eventually be forced to try its luck in France and the European Union.

The issues of course with Jewish emigration is where do you go? Europe has gotten much more hostile towards Jews since the 1980s for a variety of uncomfortable reasons and as for the rest of the Middle East, there is a reason that the Mizrahi went/were forced to go to Israel to begin with. America would lack the support system of France for Mizrahi emigrants that it would have for other Israeli Jews and acculturation would be quite difficult, but the US always takes in cheap labor, so maybe it could work.
 
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