AHC: Curb Japanese Empire (1894 to 1910)

With no PoDs prior to the outbreak of the Donghak Rebellion in January 1894, how can the military expansion power and influence that Japan saw OTL over the next two decades be minimized as much as possible?

And if we can get an effective PoD, what are the wider global effects? Does this prevent the Hundred Days Reform and Boxer Rebellion in China? The 1905 Revolution in Russia? And if the latter, does this butterfly similar constitutional revolts in Persia and the Ottoman Empire? Just how much is the world changed by 1914?
 
You could have a Korean government recognizing earlier that the Qing could no longer guarantee their security and turn to the Russians for aid, and lease a port to them. So instead of Port Arthur in 1897, maybe Inchon a few years earlier. By 1894 Japan's expanisionist ambitions would be complicated by a Korea playing off Russia and China to get aid from both.
 
So let's say Russia, rather than Qing China, steps in to deal with the Donghak Rebellion in 1894, with France and/or Germany supporting them; as a result, we don't get the annexation of Taiwan, the Hundred Days Reform, or the Boxer Rebellion, at least not as OTL.

Does this work as a PoD? And if so, what are the wider effects -- domestically in Japan, in Russia, etc?
 
to take a somewhat different direction, a socialist uprising against the hostile oligarchic parliament in the late 1890s that aggressively tried suppressing them (and thats even ignoring what they did against the communistic unions/parties.)

Red Japan some 20 years before Bolsheviks are scheduled to enter the stage ... could be interesting to explore
 
As I see it, the only way to keep Taiwan/Formosa from coming under Japanese rule is to have a European power take it before Japan has the opportunity. It was very clear that the Qing's ability to effectively defend the island was limited from both the 1874 punitive expedition, and the French operations there during the Sino-French War. So, to keep Taiwan out of the Japanese Empire needs another power able, and willing, to take possession. France seems like the first choice, but PODs in the Sino-French War would fall before the cutoff. Maybe Britain? Thugh I'm not aware of them expessing any interest in Taiwain IOTL.
 
@Captain Jack Well, if we can start by making sure Japan doesn't snatch it up in 1895 (by war of preventing war in 1894), then that would give one of the European powers time to get their hands on it first. Which now that you mention it, Wilhelm II was in the market for new colonies...
 
@Captain Jack Well, if we can start by making sure Japan doesn't snatch it up in 1895 (by war of preventing war in 1894), then that would give one of the European powers time to get their hands on it first. Which now that you mention it, Wilhelm II was in the market for new colonies...
I agree entirely. The most obvious method for the Korean government to realize that the Donghak Rebellion wasn't as serious as initiially thought earlier on that OTL, and so not ask China for assistance in suppressing it in the first place. No Chinese troops means no Japanese ones, so nothing to drive the two into war, at least for the time being. Once either side has troops committed to Korea, I don't see de-escalation as likely.

Good point on Wilhelm II... It would certainly be in character for him to seize an opportunity to take Taiwan, regardless of the consequences. And there would most certainly be consequences, potentially up to a "Scramble for China". Interesting thought, Germany seizing Taiwan kicking of general European intervention in China.
 
So let's say Russia, rather than Qing China, steps in to deal with the Donghak Rebellion in 1894, with France and/or Germany supporting them; as a result, we don't get the annexation of Taiwan, the Hundred Days Reform, or the Boxer Rebellion, at least not as OTL.

Does this work as a PoD? And if so, what are the wider effects -- domestically in Japan, in Russia, etc?

Korea would be unlikely to invite the Russians to put down an internal revolt. They may ask for advisors and weapons. Russia becoming a third co-protector of Korea would be vexing to Japan, and China as well. This probably builds up to a Russo-Japanese war down the line. But without the huge indemnity payment for the Sino-Japanese War, Japan may not have the fleet it had in 1904.
 
So let's say Korea realizes that the Donghak Rebellion isn't actually that serious, and as a result doesn't ask for Qing help in putting down the rebellion, instead taking on a small number of Russian "advisors"; as a result, the First Sino Japanese War is prevented.

How does events in Asia now play out over the course of the next decade? We discussed another European power, like Germany, snatching Formosa from the Chinese, but is there anything else? Is the given PoD enough to prevent the Hundred Days Reform and Boxer Rebellion? Will this have a (short term) effect on Japanese politics? If there's no Boxer Rebellion, does that mean there's no Anglo-Japanese Alliance (1902)? It does seem that, a decade after our PoD, a Russo-Japanese War is now far less likely to break out, which would have massive implications in itself...
 
Russia could easily have crushed Japan a the Triple Intervention. In fact, if they had wanted, Britain would have joined in December. They could just butterfly the entire Japanese Empire

For Russia to intervene herself in the Donghak Rebellion would bring potential complications.

If you prevent the Sino-Japanese War you butterfly everything-

China doen't loose its territory or pay a huge indemnity, Japan doesn't get one, China is seen as much stronger, the rush for concessions in 1898 is unlikely, the Manchu should be able to handle the Boxers and a Japanese alliance would offer no attraction for Britain
 
As I see it, the only way to keep Taiwan/Formosa from coming under Japanese rule is to have a European power take it before Japan has the opportunity. It was very clear that the Qing's ability to effectively defend the island was limited from both the 1874 punitive expedition, and the French operations there during the Sino-French War. So, to keep Taiwan out of the Japanese Empire needs another power able, and willing, to take possession. France seems like the first choice, but PODs in the Sino-French War would fall before the cutoff. Maybe Britain? Thugh I'm not aware of them expessing any interest in Taiwain IOTL.
It wouldn't take too many changes for China to win the Japanese War. Accepting their own admiral's recommendation to not fight the Japanese fleet until China had concentrated her fleet and finished the training program should do the trick
 
It wouldn't take too many changes for China to win the Japanese War. Accepting their own admiral's recommendation to not fight the Japanese fleet until China had concentrated her fleet and finished the training program should do the trick
Really? My understanding was that the issues with the Chinese fleet were much more systemic than needing to complete a training program, or concentrate the fleet. There were really fundamental issues with the fleet's ability to act effectively, such as incompetent and corrupt officers, lack of crew morale, severe maintenance issues, and officers selling of supplies for their own profit. I've also read of an unverified story about some of the gunnery officers selling off the the powder charges for the main guns and replacing it with cocoa (to match the color). Some of those issues could be lessned with more training, but not all and could it be enough?

Also, how likely is concentrating the fleet? I thought the Nanyang fleet had no intention of joining the Beiyang as a form of payback for the later not coming south to help in the sino-French War?
 
Really? My understanding was that the issues with the Chinese fleet were much more systemic than needing to complete a training program, or concentrate the fleet. There were really fundamental issues with the fleet's ability to act effectively, such as incompetent and corrupt officers, lack of crew morale, severe maintenance issues, and officers selling of supplies for their own profit. I've also read of an unverified story about some of the gunnery officers selling off the the powder charges for the main guns and replacing it with cocoa (to match the color). Some of those issues could be lessned with more training, but not all and could it be enough?

Also, how likely is concentrating the fleet? I thought the Nanyang fleet had no intention of joining the Beiyang as a form of payback for the later not coming south to help in the sino-French War?
There were problems along those lines but ivee them about 3 months and most can be corrected. The Chinese could order real ammo (they actually did this) and put their fleet in fighting trim. Give them a couple months of target practice and they should be in much better shape. Its amazing how fast things can impove when the men face actual battle and governments start spending freely
 
Another butterfly -- if there's no Russo-Japanese War, and thus no Revolution of 1905, that very well might butterfly the Persian Constitutional Revolution of 1906. (The protests of December 1905 may well still happen, but without the example of the Tsar earlier that year, the Shah may not promise a new parliament in January 1906, setting this revolution off.)

And even if Iran is unaffected, if Nicholas II isn't scrambling for concessions in Asia around the turn of the century and isn't humiliated in a war with Japan, he very well may not still formalize an entente with Britain in 1907. If not, then that, in turn, might delay the Young Turk Revolution (of 1908 OTL), meaning our short term (pre 1914) ripples would be spreading all the way out to the Ottoman Empire and the Balkans...
 
With no PoDs prior to the outbreak of the Donghak Rebellion in January 1894, how can the military expansion power and influence that Japan saw OTL over the next two decades be minimized as much as possible?

And if we can get an effective PoD, what are the wider global effects? Does this prevent the Hundred Days Reform and Boxer Rebellion in China? The 1905 Revolution in Russia? And if the latter, does this butterfly similar constitutional revolts in Persia and the Ottoman Empire? Just how much is the world changed by 1914?
One scenario less explored is if Korea joins the First Sino-Japanese War or the Russo-Japanese War. Their effects would be minimal but still significant enough to slightly tilt the scales for one country or another's favor. What this leads to is a Korea divided along an agreed-upon border with non-overlapping spheres of influence. (I'm thinking Russia taking Korea north of the 38th parallel and Japan south)
 
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