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With no PoDs before May 7, 1863 (the day after Chancellorsville), how can the CSA win the war as soon as possible -- without winning Gettysburg or similar battle. That means either no Invasion of the North following Chancellorsville (my preference), or if such an invasion must happen to meet the OP, then said campaign cannot go any better operationally for the CSA than it did OTL.

Bonus points if the CSA manages to get foreign recognition/mediation said year.

There should be plenty to work with here -- Grant's campaign in Vicksburg had a lot of gambles that might not have paid off; abroad, the Roebuck was maneuvering for British and French recognition of the CSA; there were two gubernatorial elections that November with Copperhead candidates, one of whom lost only by a couple of points; and, of course, the OP should allow Davis and the Confederate government to listen to Longstreet's proposal to reinforce the west. Just don't mention the Battle at Gettysburg.
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