AHC: Crush the February Revolution

You are the Tsar Nicholas II and the day is March 7th of 1917, your mission is to remain in the throne until at least 1918. Bonus if you are able to do this the hard way with blood and steel.
 
You are the Tsar Nicholas II and the day is March 7th of 1917, your mission is to remain in the throne until at least 1918. Bonus if you are able to do this the hard way with blood and steel.

Abdicate in favor of my brother, by now my credibility as a ruler is basically non existent...use everything left to convince him to accept the crown and the Duma to support him; pray a lot for the best
 
If you abdicate then you wouldn't be in the throne by 1918.

Being on the throne by now is no more possible and even signing a ceasefire agreement with the CP mean destroying whatever credibilty the state had left and the revolution due to the economic consequences of the war, the reparation and the cessation of the entente financial support.
Getting Micheal on the job at least give the possibility that a throne will still exist at the end of the war; Nicky by now don't have the support of anyone, it's too late
 
Literary impossible. This wasn't some revolution against the odds,the tsarist regime was blown away like a leaf in an hurricane. By the time of the POD nicholas didn't have access to any troops at all,while "actually let him abdicate instead of killing him" was a very nicholas friendly position in the ranks of the revoluzzers.
 
In answer to someone who wrote

>What started it [the Revolution]
>off was a mutiny among new recruits, mainly among people that had
>previously been promised they would not be drafted because of age,
>privilige etc... This is still likely to occur. However, in OTL
>this mutiny only led to a successful revolution because the Tsar
>stupidly called off a counter attack by loyal units from outside
>Petrograd.

I wrote the following post some years ago:

***

Actually it was General Alexeev who called off the counterattacks. Alexeev and the rest of the Stavka (army headquarters) had originally wholeheartedly supported Nicholas' orders to crush the revolution. There were at least two reasons for Alexeev's change of mind:

(1) The assurance Alexeev got on March 1 from Rodzianko that the Duma leaders rather than the Soviet would form the new government. Alexeev trusted Rodzianko and had himself long been party to the "palace coup" plots of the Progressive Bloc. (The Duma Committee also played a crucial role by getting control of the railway network through with the counterrevolutionary troops were to travel.)

(2) By March 1 Alexeev was worried that if the army were used to attack Petrograd, it might become engulfed in a general mutiny, leading to Russia's defeat in the war. This was certainly a plausible fear. As Orlando Figes puts it, "Already on 1 March there were mutinies in several northern garrisons, and there was a real danger that they might soon spread to the units at the Front. He [Alexeev] preferred to isolate his front-line soldiers from Red Petrograd rather than send them there and run the risk of having them fall under its revolutionary influence." (*A People's Tragedy*, p. 341)

Well, you might say, couldn't Nicholas have countermanded Alexeev's orders? But Alexeev had the support of the rest of the Stavka, which really had no fundamental disagreements with the Duma Committee, and was more interested in winning the war than in saving the Tsar. As soon as they were assured that the power in Petrograd had been transferred to the liberals, that settled the matter. It is just not realistic to think that Nicholas could have fired the entire Army High Command in time of war. (Of course had the Stavka realized how helpless the Provisional Government would be before the Soviets, had they foreseen Order No. 1 which had such a devastating effect on military discipline, they would have taken a very different line.)

So the real question is what could have been done to defeat the Revolution earlier? I think we have to go back to February 25, two days before the mutiny. By that time the strike movement had reached its height, but it did not lead to a revolution, and in fact it was clear that the workers could not by themselves overthrow the regime. Shlyapnikov, the leading Bolshevik in the capital, scoffed at the idea that this was the start of a revolution. Just give the workers enough bread, and the movement will peter out, he said; the demonstrators will become tired and go back to work. This in fact had been the pattern of several bread riots in the recent past. The government had actually been on the right track--avoid an open conflict with the crowd, which would just pour fuel on the flames and run the risk of a mutiny among the soldiers of the garrison. Instead, the authorities determined on active suppression on February 26, and this policy, though it briefly seemed successful, led to disaster...

https://www.alternatehistory.com/shwi/More Russian Revolution WIs.txt
 
I've been pondering this since I read it. I have a plan, but I'm still not certain it can prevent catastrophe.

1. Instruct Alexeev to cut a deal with the rebels. Anyone who trusts that they won't have to fight and that the government will provide food can go home. Kill everyone else.

2. Publicly give the issues of the economy and food shipments to the Duma. Make it clear any failure is on them.

3. Write my cousin George and apologize for having to cut a deal to save Russia.

4. The side arrangement with Austria-Hungary and Bulgaria:
a. Russia annexes Polish Galicia; in exchange Russia guarantees that German speaking Tyrol remains Austrian
b. Rumania retains it's pre-war borders but pays an indemnity to Austria
c. Bulgaria regains the territory Serbia seized during the Second Balkan War
d. Austria annexes Montenegro to make up for losses in Galicia
e. Serbia and Albania are merged, put under a pro-Austrian government, disarmed, and made an Austrian protectorate
f. The Balkans are secretly split into two spheres of influence: Rumania and Yugoslavia to Austria, Bulgaria and Greece to Russia

5. Now that the initial crisis that started the war is resolved, ask Germany for a white peace; I have no idea if they'd go for it but if they don't at least Russia is in a better tactical position
 
4. The side arrangement with Austria-Hungary and Bulgaria

And if Austria says no because they don't want to fall apart themselves as Germany screams bloody murder, their own government gets caught up in the succession confusion while still being at war with Italy (Who wants Tyrol, and London and Paris will be screaming bloody murder at YOU and declare that gurantee mud), ect?
 
And if Austria says no because they don't want to fall apart themselves as Germany screams bloody murder, their own government gets caught up in the succession confusion while still being at war with Italy (Who wants Tyrol, and London and Paris will be screaming bloody murder at YOU and declare that gurantee mud), ect?
It's not a great plan but it's all I've got. Russia needs a quick exit from the war and quick return to prosperity. The only way they can do it (outside the ASB forum anyway) is to cut a deal. I'm gambling Karl still wants peace badly enough to exchange one Slav population for another.
 

trurle

Banned
What about a PoD on the 1st of January ?
It may become technically possible to remain at throne with PoD of 1st of January, and likely absolutely hopeless by 1st of February 1917. Possible actions for 1st of January 1917 PoD:
1) Retire or kill Grigory Rasputin immediately
2) Make compromises with the Duma politicians
3) Have a good crisis management of food shortage, at least in Sankt-Peterburg (Petrograd)

The revolution is still very likely to happen, but it may be possible to prevent the destruction of institution of monarchy during the hard transition period.
 
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Actually it was General Alexeev who called off the counterattacks. Alexeev and the rest of the Stavka (army headquarters) had originally wholeheartedly supported Nicholas' orders to crush the revolution. There were at least two reasons for Alexeev's change of mind:

(1) The assurance Alexeev got on March 1 from Rodzianko that the Duma leaders rather than the Soviet would form the new government. Alexeev trusted Rodzianko and had himself long been party to the "palace coup" plots of the Progressive Bloc. (The Duma Committee also played a crucial role by getting control of the railway network through with the counterrevolutionary troops were to travel.)

(2) By March 1 Alexeev was worried that if the army were used to attack Petrograd, it might become engulfed in a general mutiny, leading to Russia's defeat in the war. This was certainly a plausible fear. As Orlando Figes puts it, "Already on 1 March there were mutinies in several northern garrisons, and there was a real danger that they might soon spread to the units at the Front. He [Alexeev] preferred to isolate his front-line soldiers from Red Petrograd rather than send them there and run the risk of having them fall under its revolutionary influence." (*A People's Tragedy*, p. 341)

Well, you might say, couldn't Nicholas have countermanded Alexeev's orders? But Alexeev had the support of the rest of the Stavka, which really had no fundamental disagreements with the Duma Committee, and was more interested in winning the war than in saving the Tsar. As soon as they were assured that the power in Petrograd had been transferred to the liberals, that settled the matter. It is just not realistic to think that Nicholas could have fired the entire Army High Command in time of war. (Of course had the Stavka realized how helpless the Provisional Government would be before the Soviets, had they foreseen Order No. 1 which had such a devastating effect on military discipline, they would have taken a very different line.)
And the relevant information was not available to Nicholas.
WI by some luck a well-informed informant reaches Nicholas - and Nicholas has the evidence to prove Stavka that Duma committee is NOT in control of Petrograd?
 
This AHC is not acheveable. Nicholas II and royal family was extremely hated among army and common people. The war was already very unpopular and domestic situation was very bad. No food, no peace and economy nearby collapsed. Perfect recipe to revolution. Even if Nicholas II gives new constitution and begin peace negotiations with CPs not help anymore. And he is not going do that. And even if he does both he can't keep his throne much longer. Nicky and monarchy are just too unpopular.
 
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