AHC: Create the largest realistic 20th century Russia-wank you can think of

[CaliGuy]

Here is a fun AHC for you: Create the largest realistic 20th century Russia-wank you can think of. Basically, try to expand Russia as much as possible and to make Russia as wealthy as possible by the end of the 20th century.

Also, please do this without Bolshevism; indeed, Russia would have been a much better place (much less deaths, much less poverty, et cetera) had those thugs never seized power.

 

[CaliGuy]

For the record, the PoD here is 1901 or later.

 

[Mightyboosh5]

Nicholas dies of a stroke in 1913, olga becomes regent and let's the Duma take control of much of governance, by the time alexei is old enough the land issue is becoming less and less of a problem as the Duma pushes for land reform

Ww1 averted and Russia gives congress Poland and independence at some point in the 20s probably. By the 30s Russia is a superpower easily if China collapses as otl it is well positioned to dominate Central Asia and probably much of China Aswell.

 

[pattersonautobody]

Avoid the assassination of Franz Ferdinand. Another Cassus Belli pops up in 1917 and Germany declares war in 1917. Germany ends up crushed and occupied in the perphiery by Imperial Russia and France. In the 1920s a fascist government pops up in Germany and forces the issue. Russia occupies Germany to the Rhine.

Japan ITTL still is crazy and invades China. The US eventually gets involved and so does Imperial Russia, occupying Manchuria and Korea. A cold war starts between Imperial Russia and the West. Russia has the bomb first (occupying most of Germany in the 1920s pays dividends), the world's largest population, and the world's second largest GDP (still behind the United States.) Come the 60s, due to economic growth in Asia, Germany, Ukraine, and Russia proper Imperial Russia has the world's largest GDP. Per-capita GDP hits the top 10 by the 80s (which is incredible given how much of their population was third world at the beginning of the century.) Academia tends to be bilingual, Russian and English (and perhaps some German for the real egg heads.) Russian is the language of science.

Imperial Russia persists into the modern day, considered incredible in its might. Orthodoxy has 500,000,000 global adherents. The United States is mostly deindustrialized and has spent their treasures propping up governments and fighting civil wars in Japan, China, French Indochina, and the Middle East.

 

[CaliGuy]

Nicholas dies of a stroke in 1913, olga becomes regent and let's the Duma take control of much of governance, by the time alexei is old enough the land issue is becoming less and less of a problem as the Duma pushes for land reform

Ww1 averted and Russia gives congress Poland and independence at some point in the 20s probably. By the 30s Russia is a superpower easily if China collapses as otl it is well positioned to dominate Central Asia and probably much of China Aswell.

Makes sense. However, wouldn't WWI--if Russia is able to come out of it in one piece--actually strengthen Russia by weakening its greatest rival and by giving Russia opportunities to further expand?

 

[CaliGuy]

Avoid the assassination of Franz Ferdinand. Another Cassus Belli pops up in 1917 and Germany declares war in 1917. Germany ends up crushed and occupied in the perphiery by Imperial Russia and France. In the 1920s a fascist government pops up in Germany and forces the issue. Russia occupies Germany to the Rhine.

Why would Fascists come to power in Germany before the start of the Great Depression in this TL?

Japan ITTL still is crazy and invades China. The US eventually gets involved and so does Imperial Russia, occupying Manchuria and Korea. A cold war starts between Imperial Russia and the West. Russia has the bomb first (occupying most of Germany in the 1920s pays dividends), the world's largest population, and the world's second largest GDP (still behind the United States.) Come the 60s, due to economic growth in Asia, Germany, Ukraine, and Russia proper Imperial Russia has the world's largest GDP. Per-capita GDP hits the top 10 by the 80s (which is incredible given how much of their population was third world at the beginning of the century.) Academia tends to be bilingual, Russian and English (and perhaps some German for the real egg heads.) Russian is the language of science.

OK.

Imperial Russia persists into the modern day, considered incredible in its might. Orthodoxy has 500,000,000 global adherents. The United States is mostly deindustrialized and has spent their treasures propping up governments and fighting civil wars in Japan, China, French Indochina, and the Middle East.

Why exactly would the U.S. be mostly de-industrialized?

 

[Mightyboosh5]

strengthen Russia by weakening its greatest rival and by giving Russia opportunities to further expand?

A war taking a year or so that knocks out Germany or Austria without any massive defeats, yes for sure they would be in a very strong position.

But after several years of war the Russia of 1914 is in no shape to be occupying or annexing really any part of Europe, the most developed parts in Finland and Poland were the most rebellious and annexing more similar regions that were not ethnic Russian would create far more issues than benefits, Russia was really very poor and underprepared for ww1 and it showed.

 

[Jürgen]

Russia wins against Japan, but Nicolas is still forced to accept increase power to the Duma and OTL land reforms. Nicolas dies a few year later, and the Duma increase its power.

We end up with Russia controlling East Turkmenistan, Greater Mongolia and Manchuria.

 

[CaliGuy]

A war taking a year or so that knocks out Germany or Austria without any massive defeats, yes for sure they would be in a very strong position.

Agreed.

But after several years of war the Russia of 1914 is in no shape to be occupying or annexing really any part of Europe, the most developed parts in Finland and Poland were the most rebellious and annexing more similar regions that were not ethnic Russian would create far more issues than benefits, Russia was really very poor and underprepared for ww1 and it showed.

Even so, having Russia take out Germany, Austria-Hungary, and the Ottoman Empire--even while significantly weakening itself--would make it much easier for Russia to expand into oil-rich Persia later on.

 

[CaliGuy]

Russia wins against Japan, but Nicolas is still forced to accept increase power to the Duma and OTL land reforms. Nicolas dies a few year later, and the Duma increase its power.

We end up with Russia controlling East Turkmenistan, Greater Mongolia and Manchuria.

You mean East Turkestan, correct?

Also, that's a good start, but how exactly do you have Russia win the Russo-Japanese War?

 

[John Fredrick Parker]

There's always the 1917 Revolution going differently; a recurring idea from that discussion:

While on the run in the aftermath of the July Days, Lenin gets himself killed; effects become noticeable starting in September, when OTL he resumed contact with the Bolshevik party, flooding the committee with letters. After the Kornilov Affair, the Bolsheviks still distrust the Kerensky government enough that they still intend to overthrow it and deliver "all power to the Soviets". Only TTL, they decide to wait for said Soviet to actually convene, then vote with the Left SRs to do just that. Because this is not given to them as a fait accompli, the Right SRs and Mensheviks don't walk out. The Constituent Assembly survives, Brest-Livotsk is rejected, yadda yadda yadda... Long story short: The war ends sooner than OTL, with German defeat, and representatives of Russia's socialist state will be at the peace negotiations. With the various socialist parties and factions more or less working together, the Russian Civil War is far shorter and less destructive. Things are looking up in the Motherland.

 

[Jürgen]

You mean East Turkestan, correct?

Yeah

Also, that's a good start, but how exactly do you have Russia win the Russo-Japanese War?

I handwaver it. But honestly Russia could likely have won it, if it had been less unlucky.

 

[CaliGuy]

There's always the 1917 Revolution going differently; a recurring idea from that discussion:

Please hang on--what exactly isn't given to them as a fait accompli? The convocation of the Soviet? If so, how exactly is this relevant?

Basically, I know I'm missing something here; indeed, I simply want someone to explain it to me a little better.

 

[John Fredrick Parker]

Please hang on--what exactly isn't given to them as a fait accompli?

The overthrow of the PG and the Soviets seizing power; OTL, the Bolsheviks overthrew the government and gave "all power to the Soviets" before said Soviets actually got an opportunity to ask (or decline) that they do so. And a substantial minority of the High Soviet did indeed oppose this (eg Martov), and saw sticking around as giving legitimacy to the Bolsheviks effectively just violently seizing power for themselves, and so walked out; this had the effect of turning another key player in the Soviet, the Left SRs, from being a a member of the Bolshevik led majority coalition to becoming the de facto "loyal opposition" within the new government (where the Bolsheviks now had an outright majority).

So basically, none of this happens in the scenario I laid out -- by actually waiting until the Soviet convenes to take power for the Soviets, this walkout doesn't happen, meaning the Bolsheviks have to actually keep working with the Left SRs.

 

[thefrecklepuny]

Refuse to sell Alaska. Moscow keeps some prime territory, huge oil reserves and a toehold - or rather a massive footprint on America's doorstep. Did I mention the oil?

 

[Luminous]

Refuse to sell Alaska. Moscow keeps some prime territory, huge oil reserves and a toehold - or rather a massive footprint on America's doorstep. Did I mention the oil?

You're about 34 years too late here. PoD has to be 1901 or later.

 

[BBadolato]

Refuse to sell Alaska. Moscow keeps some prime territory, huge oil reserves and a toehold - or rather a massive footprint on America's doorstep. Did I mention the oil?

The POD is 1901 which is too late. Couldn't we have a healthy son born to Nicholas but have Alexandra die in childbirth, Alexi was only born in 1904. No Alexandra could make for a more popular monarchy at home, and no superstitious Alexandra means no Rasputin.

 

[CaliGuy]

The overthrow of the PG and the Soviets seizing power; OTL, the Bolsheviks overthrew the government and gave "all power to the Soviets" before said Soviets actually got an opportunity to ask (or decline) that they do so. And a substantial minority of the High Soviet did indeed oppose this (eg Martov), and saw sticking around as giving legitimacy to the Bolsheviks effectively just violently seizing power for themselves, and so walked out; this had the effect of turning another key player in the Soviet, the Left SRs, from being a a member of the Bolshevik led majority coalition to becoming the de facto "loyal opposition" within the new government (where the Bolsheviks now had an outright majority).

So basically, none of this happens in the scenario I laid out -- by actually waiting until the Soviet convenes to take power for the Soviets, this walkout doesn't happen, meaning the Bolsheviks have to actually keep working with the Left SRs.

Why did a substantial minority of the High Soviet oppose this, though?

 

[BooNZ]

Also, that's a good start, but how exactly do you have Russia win the Russo-Japanese War?

Avoid it altogether. Instead of an Anglo-Japanese alliance, have an Russo-Japanese alliance - Japan gets the Korean peninsular and Russia gets the Manchuria and they together share in the harvesting of the Chinese state.

Not adding fuel to Balkan fires would also aid Russian longevity...

 

[pattersonautobody]

Why would Fascists come to power in Germany before the start of the Great Depression in this TL?

Why did they in Italy? WHy did Hitler try overthrowing the Weimar govt in 1923?

Why exactly would the U.S. be mostly de-industrialized?

Well, they are now. ITTL the process starts sooner because the Cold War is less stacked in their favor and not being a continental power, it is much more expensive for the US to project power.