AHC: Create a successful pan-nationalist movement through the ballot box

[euromellows]

The challenge is to create a successful pan-nationalist movement that succeeds democratically across national boundaries. Namely, that the success generated at a free and fair election(s) translates into national policy that is enacted between two or more nations voluntarily.

I do not know of any successful examples of this in history, though the voluntary admission of Texas into the United States appears to come close (though, of course, it did not fundamentally alter the nature of the United States).

 

[Maeglin]

Well, you had this guy:

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/T._P._O'Connor

Who was Irish Nationalist MP for Liverpool until his death in 1929 - yes, after the creation of the Free State.

 

[NCW8]

The challenge is to create a successful pan-nationalist movement that succeeds democratically across national boundaries. Namely, that the success generated at a free and fair election(s) translates into national policy that is enacted between two or more nations voluntarily.

I do not know of any successful examples of this in history, though the voluntary admission of Texas into the United States appears to come close (though, of course, it did not fundamentally alter the nature of the United States).

Do the various referendums associated with the European Union count ? For example ratification of the Maastricht Treaty depended upon referendums held in Ireland, France and Denmark.


Cheers,
Nigel

 

[Sian]

You might be able to push Pan-Scandinavism towards that point ... it just need not to die a quick messy death in 1864 with Sweden denying to support Denmark in Second Scheswig War.

If the best POD for this is either Sweden joining up or butterflying SSW. The latter most likely by much less incompetent politicians, either by completely dodging the war (easier said than done), willingness to listen to the military who claimed that the strategies the politicians made had a snowballs chance in hell of working, or prehaps a Britain that sits up noticing that Prussia is very close to being the strongest continental power (above France), and starts focusing on slowing them down.

 

[euromellows]

You might be able to push Pan-Scandinavism towards that point ... it just need not to die a quick messy death in 1864 with Sweden denying to support Denmark in Second Scheswig War.

If the best POD for this is either Sweden joining up or butterflying SSW. The latter most likely by much less incompetent politicians, either by completely dodging the war (easier said than done), willingness to listen to the military who claimed that the strategies the politicians made had a snowballs chance in hell of working, or prehaps a Britain that sits up noticing that Prussia is very close to being the strongest continental power (above France), and starts focusing on slowing them down.

I did have scandinavism in mind when I posted this challenge, it does seem to have the necessary features of being genuinely democratic. I once write notes in a timeline for this with the pod in the first Scheswig War. The pod was that Denmark did much worse, not leading to a false myth they 'won' the war and becoming complacent. By the time the second war kicks off their army is better prepared and is able to hold out much longer, leading to Swedish and British assistance.

Do the various referendums associated with the European Union count ? For example ratification of the Maastricht Treaty depended upon referendums held in Ireland, France and Denmark.


Cheers,
Nigel

I confess I didn't even consider the European Union when I set this challenge, but yes if they formed a genuine federal structure I would consider that meeting the challenge. Perhaps one pod would be a smaller eu comprising only the wealthy north, though it begins to look more like a Teutonic union than European.

 

[Halagaz]

Already happened. Wallachia and Moldavia unified into the modern state of Romania through elections.

Other possibilities include unifying Germany and Austria (in a TL where both stay democratic for long enough after WWI, and the former Entente is still too weak to stop it), or the Kingdoms of Serbia and Montenegro (if WWI is avoided or resolved in a slightly different way for the Balkan front).

 

[EternalCynic]

In 2000, pro-independence candidate Chen Shui Bian was elected president of Taiwan. He only beat Song Chu Yu by 2.5%, who had advocated first a non-aggression pact with the PRC and treating cross strait relations as neither foreign nor domestic, then an EU-style union with the clear endgame.

Song's campaign was hampered by many factors, such as a campaign finance scandal (in which he was eventually exonerated), nasty infighting on the KMT, and last-minute saber-rattling by the PRC. So a slight change in the 2000 Taiwan presidential election satisfies the OP's challenge.

 

[euromellows]

Already happened. Wallachia and Moldavia unified into the modern state of Romania through elections.

Other possibilities include unifying Germany and Austria (in a TL where both stay democratic for long enough after WWI, and the former Entente is still too weak to stop it), or the Kingdoms of Serbia and Montenegro (if WWI is avoided or resolved in a slightly different way for the Balkan front).

Interesting. Thanks Halagaz I wasn't aware of Romania, but a cursory examination suggests you're right and it meets the challenge. I briefly considered Yugoslavia another candidate if the Austro-Hungarian Empire collapsed without WW1.

In 2000, pro-independence candidate Chen Shui Bian was elected president of Taiwan. He only beat Song Chu Yu by 2.5%, who had advocated first a non-aggression pact with the PRC and treating cross strait relations as neither foreign nor domestic, then an EU-style union with the clear endgame.

Song's campaign was hampered by many factors, such as a campaign finance scandal (in which he was eventually exonerated), nasty infighting on the KMT, and last-minute saber-rattling by the PRC. So a slight change in the 2000 Taiwan presidential election satisfies the OP's challenge.

Another interesting scenario, though I am sceptical as to whether it would really have been achieved. If the margin of victory is slim, which it sounds like it would be, fundamentally changing the direction of the country without a firmer mandate would be risky. Furthermore, what is the position of USA going to be? Sure, in a 60/40 split they'd probably reluctantly concede, but a 51/49 split I suspect will meet with their resistance.

 

[Sian]

Furthermore, what is the position of USA going to be? Sure, in a 60/40 split they'd probably reluctantly concede, but a 51/49 split I suspect will meet with their resistance.

A clear democratic win didn't stop US displacing Allende in Chile, true it was a different time, but ......

 

[EternalCynic]

Another interesting scenario, though I am sceptical as to whether it would really have been achieved. If the margin of victory is slim, which it sounds like it would be, fundamentally changing the direction of the country without a firmer mandate would be risky. Furthermore, what is the position of USA going to be? Sure, in a 60/40 split they'd probably reluctantly concede, but a 51/49 split I suspect will meet with their resistance.

Chen won 39% of the vote. Song won 37%. Lien Chan (who warned of provoking the PRC's wrath if Chen won) won 23%, with the remainder between minor candidates. Song and Lien were both formerly of the KMT, but the KMT was so wracked by infighting that Song resigned and ran as an independent candidate. Lien had never held elected office and was widely seen as out of touch and aloof. It's also widely believed that then-KMT President Lee Teng Hui secretly sought to undermine his own party's campaign in order to elect Chen, who shared his pro-independence views.

So if Song won, even by a narrow margin over Chen, then the fact that pro-unity candidates won over 60% would be a strong mandate for his cross-strait policies.

If the PRC is confident that the Taiwanese voters accept being Chinese, though disliking Communist Party rule, it may well agree to an informal non-aggression pact so long as that consensus remains (and Taiwan agrees not to host covert US spying, to "eventually" work to full political union, etc). Relations across the strait will be much better than between the two Koreas, or even between the two Germanies.

A clear democratic win didn't stop US displacing Allende in Chile, true it was a different time, but ......

Seeing the US didn't interfere when successive South Korean governments (tried to) reconcile with the North in the 1990s, I doubt they will care if the Taiwanese decisively vote a certain way.

 

[EternalCynic]

I remember a TL floating around where Kim Jong Il is killed by a truck driven by a South Korean spy, turning Kim Pyong Il (Jong Il's younger brother) into the new heir apparent. After Kim Il Sung's death, Pyong Il begins to reform the regime, triggering several coup attempts by hardliners. Eventually Korea reunites as a confederation after North Korea's first serious election.

 

[Cahaya Purnama]

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