AHC: Create a Non-Neo Confederate Southern Secession Movement.

[Sarthak]

Your challenge here in this thread is to plausibly create a non neo-confederate secession movement in the Southern United States of America after the end of the American Civil War.
While i am well read on the ARW itself, both politically, diplomatically and militarily, i find my knowledge of the immediate period after lacking somewhat, so i hope i can learn some new things in this thread.

 

[Slime_blob]

Your challenge here in this thread is to plausibly create a non neo-confederate secession movement in the Southern United States of America after the end of the American Civil War.
While i am well read on the ARW itself, both politically, diplomatically and militarily, i find my knowledge of the immediate period after lacking somewhat, so i hope i can learn some new things in this thread.

The Republic of New Afrika movement being 100 years earlier, maybe the blacks feeling that they are being opressed and disenfranchised after the ACW and they wanting to fix this and become more radical or what in the process or what. Resulting into a movement like that to take place earlier? does this count?

 

[Sarthak]

The Republic of New Afrika movement being 100 years earlier, maybe the blacks feeling that they are being opressed and disenfranchised after the ACW and they wanting to fix this and become more radical or what in the process or what. Resulting into a movement like that to take place earlier? does this count?

That counts too I guess but I was envisioning all of 5he former CSA.

 

[Fabius Maximus]

How strictly are we defining "Neo-Confederate"? Getting a secessionist movement which isn't about slavery or racial hierarchies should be doable, although such a movement would probably borrow many of the trappings of the old Confederacy (the flag etc.), simply because that's the obvious predecessor for an independent Southern state.

 

[UnaiB]

The American Union State under Huey Long counts?

 

[Paradoxer]

Why is this in before 1900th century? Seems more like modern or next century pod?

But off that note, any Balkanization of US post 60s might see confederate symbolism somewhat and preservation but likely go under different name to make black population feel less at “uneasy”(they try to depict it as “new” south even if they still defend or apologetic about stuff that happened in past. Balkanization of US and federal government would be depicted by south as “we were right” moment about state rights).

Also would “American Confederation” be ok name or too close to Confederacy?

What about American Federation?

 

[Hugh Third of Five]

The Republic of New Afrika movement being 100 years earlier, maybe the blacks feeling that they are being opressed and disenfranchised after the ACW and they wanting to fix this and become more radical or what in the process or what. Resulting into a movement like that to take place earlier? does this count?

Yes but if it's in the immediate aftermath of the ACW I don't see them trying to weaken the federal position. A Nova Arika movement as part of the Cold War seems more plausible, although it's not going to succeed, the AHC only calls for a movement, and doesn't say it has to be a successful one. Other than that? IDK. Maybe have the north for some reason decide to try to institute federal schools and make them decide to abuse kids for speaking with southern accents. That sounds pretty unlikely but with a POD in the 19th century, you could probably bring it about some time in the 20th, albeit with massive butterflies.

 

[SA Smith]

Some form of economic populism might be the most likely scenario. In 1935 Huey Long’s Share Our Wealth Society was very popular in the Deep South states but more thinly spread out in the rest of America. So there was the potential for a regional division there. If Long had lived it’s possible that some form of Share Our Wealth third party could have won the Deep South in the 1936 presidential election & maybe had a spoiler effect in other parts of the country.

If the election led to an unclear winner then it could potentially lead to a larger crisis with at least the Deep South states at odds with the rest of the country. Like UnaiB said that would be a bit similar to what I think happens in Kaiserreich, even if it was not so severe as all that.

Another possibility might have been after the 1896 election, where the Panic of 1893 was still being felt and political divisions got severe. America was pretty starkly divided over the free-silver campaign of William Jennings Bryan, I think that some commentators at the time even said that it was the greatest crisis since 1860 (though that might have also just been alarmist rhetoric). The southern states all went strongly for Bryan & not just because he was the Democratic candidate, the free-silver issue had become very popular there, as well as in the western states.

If the election were closer it might have gotten ugly, with a few of the closest states like Indiana and Kentucky having their electoral results challenged by whichever side lost a particular state. Things could get so hotly contested that it could be similar to 1876 and if Bryan supporters began to claim that he was being cheated out of the election then some in the South and West might start talking about violence.

In any case I think that no matter what the initial cause, if the southern states attempted to secede from the US it is pretty unavoidable that white southerners would start invoking the memory of the CSA as a kind of distinct identity, a kind of southern nationalism, to help support their cause. Both Free-Silver and Share Our Wealth occurred at the height of segregation, so black southerners had little say in those movements and there likely would not be concern about appealing to them.

 

[Aghasverov]

Sometime in between the end of the ARW and the WO1812, a "neo-Royalist" uprising topples the state governments in NC, SC and GA, appeals to the Crown for assistance...

 

[fluttersky]

That counts too I guess but I was envisioning all of 5he former CSA.

Perhaps a scenario in which the slave trade lasts longer+stronger, birth rates are a bit higher, and thus the CSA area as a whole becomes black majority?

 

[Booster Gold]

Have the federal government keep its promises to free blacks, i.e. maintain reconstruction a lot longer. As it was, the southerners didn't feel the need to revolt again because they had more or less everything they wanted.

When the north finally leaves, (maybe due to war or economic crisis) the southerners are all bitter and resentful and redemption is a lot worse.

Alternatively, a shorter civil war where nothing is really decided but that violates the POD, doesn't it?

 

[Pauh the federalist]

Have a MUCH larger slave trade in the south in order to demograpicly make it closer to Haiti in terms of the black and white population ratios so the African population is something like 50-75% in order to give slave revolt a better chance. Otl in the lower south the slave population was just over 40% and the upper south it was just over 20% so it's hard but not impossible that at least the lower south might be able to hit the upper end of these numbers in a slave wank and the upper south might get close to the minumum but stay below it. (England not shuting down the slave trade might help but honestly you might even need a pre-independence since we are talking about possibly doubling the southern black African populations as a whole or at least the lower south by a 50% increase so the overall population goes from a little over 40% to something like 63% or 2/3)