AHC: Create a French Third Republic without the Franco-Prussian War
- Thread starter SPJ
- Start date
It may stray too close to the OTL events, but perhaps Nap3 does make an ill-fated decision to intervene upon the side of the Confederacy during the ACW. The results of which drain the country financially and do not result in spectacular successes on land or sea. The results of which lead to either a public backlash leading to his ouster or utter in an early death from which the people refuse to accept an imperial succession. Similar results might be plausible even allowing for a positive outcome to the intervention into the ACW.
I'm not familiar with French economics of the period to know what kind of condition that would have placed them in. I have a hard time thinking that they wouldn't get to a point there they were forced to pull the plug on the cash before it chanced causing outright political strife (relative to French political strife of course). You can't exactally pull the plug as easily if you are involved militarily somewhere.
wolf_brother
Banned
This is pretty difficult to do if you actually know anything about Second Empire France. It was a much more stable regime than most people, even on this site, give it credit for. It lasted longer than the four previous regimes did.
Yeah seconded. They only thing that would cause the Second Empire to fall would be a massive defeat in a war, like with the Franco-Prussian War. Without something that completely discredits Napoleon III, the opposition won't have enough juice to over through the Empire.
have the united states side with the Republicanists in Mexico after the civil war (probably shorten it) against the French backed empire and draw in France by seizing its colonies....granted asb, but part from that situation, theres nothign else that could destroy france at the time without involving the prussians
Which colonies? the only French colonies in the Americas was French Guiana and some assorted islands in the Caribbean. I doubt that the US could occupy any of these territories, and even then, I doubt that the US would want to get into a war with France over a few islands.
like i said, it was a asb idea...just there doesnt seem to be much else that couldve crashed france besides the prussians or a situation where the usa takes a more proactive stance in their helping the mexican republicans
Maybe France loses to Austria in the Second war of Italian independence? That could work, though I'm not sure if Austria could beat France.
Rush Tarquin
Gone Fishin'
The problem with this one is that the crash of 1873 was triggered by Prussia getting an indemnity in gold from France at the conclusion of the Franco-Prussian War and going off the silver standard.
I suggest an Austria and South German Confederation who beat the Prussians and then have a dispute with their erstwhile collaborators, the French, and end up defeating the French in the Austro-French War.
wolf_brother
Banned
Going off topic, but this perked my interest. France intervenes in the Seven Weeks War, then Napoléon IV & Franz Joseph later clash over spheres of influence and economic preference in the south German states? Without a FPW the Savoyards wouldn't hold Rome yet; whichever side could promise them to gain the capital would likely sway them to join their alliance.
Rush Tarquin
Gone Fishin'
There would be a lot more of what would be considered Italia irredenta in Austria than in France at this point. Corsica and Savoy weren't even being considered and Nice had been given away and was becoming French quite rapidly due to internal immigration. I think the French would be more able to sway the Italians with promises of Austrian territory. Plus the historical enemy thing.
France would easily trump Austria at the time and would probably be even stronger...though it may force Austria and Prussia to reconcile and unite against France later on...
I was thinking the classic "recession leading to revolution." Which was always a fear in France during the late 19th century, when anarchists were pretty prevalent. It was pretty amazing how many monarchs were able to be killed because how little security measures were considered. If there are no more Bonapartes then I would imagine that a republic would be the follow up.
wolf_brother
Banned
But it's French troops guarding Rome. If Vienna can convince Florence that they can give them the ancient capitol the Savoyards might take the offer.
Rush Tarquin
Gone Fishin'
Yes, well if the French had any sense they'd be handing over the keys to Rome right quick because the Italians would occupy it in any case when the French garrison would have to be withdrawn to fight the Austrians, as per the Franco-Prussian War.
wolf_brother
Banned
Except that the French garrison in Rome was only withdrawn on the orders of the Government of National Defense, which only came about because a) the Emperor had been captured, and b) the Prussians were closing in on Paris. You're not likely to get a similar scenario ITTL, and thus you're not going to have the Italians take Rome.