As for the PoD:
I think the best one would be Lula beats FHC in 1993. This is not your 2002-Lula, this is still a Trostskyte firebreather who says things like Brazil ought not to pay our national debt to "foreign bankers". His mere victory is a nice shot to the economy.
Lula lasts to 1998, then he loses because he ins't letting his economy minister do his thing. Things get better, but not as good as Plano Real. The economy is still doing badly, even if Lula had to immediatly moderate his rethoric or every single foreign investitor would run off the country.
(if you want FULL DYSTOPIA, have Lula go full crazy leftie and follow his party's old rethoric)
Ciro Gomes wins in 1998, and tries a repeat of Vargas-era National Developmentist policies, but has to do a bunch of reforms (weaker, but still there) and his National Developmentist policies backfire later on because they result in more national debt.
In 2002, Roseana Sarney or Anthony Garotinho win the election. Roseana Sarney is, you know, a Sarney, and Garotinho is currently in jail for corruption right now. This tells all that needs to be said about these presidencies. Hint: It will suck.
Neither manages to fix the economy, applying more patches to it. Brazil is barely getting better since the early 90s.
Things play into the classic Argentina cycle - a liberal president shows up, gets the fix on the economy started, and then their populist/socialist sucessor goes full "spend it like we rich" mode. Its essentially the Brazilian Old Republic in the modern day, but with (crappier) internet this time. A common cycle in countries in South America.
By 2018, I have no idea who is President of Brazil, because I just shot dead a few sucessful political careers, while saving a few others. No sucessful FHC, Lula is a one-term Trotskyte failure. One thing from Brazilian politics is that you can see a lot of same or similar candidates from decades or being on the spotlight for years before - Lula spent a decade trying to become president until he did, Ciro has tried to run before, Marina Silva ran three times (or was it four?), José Serra and Geraldo Alckmin both ran twice. But sometimes you get a new candidate - Marina back when, Enéas Carneiro, Jair Bolsonaro, etc.
Some possible post-2006 candidates, in my opinion:
- Geraldo Alckmin
- José Dirceu
- Renan Calheiros.
- Aécio Neves
- Jáder Barbalho, if TTL he manages to avoid all the scandals he came under fire OTL.
- ACM Neto
- Perhaps someone from Rio Grande do Sul, like Tarso Gereissati.