AHC: Crapsack Brazil.

I know the urge of many people (Me included) to call modern Brazil as that, but I don't want this to result on a chat like discussion and my objective is to keep the debate with a 20th century PoD to fit this forum, so here it goes:

The challenge is to make Brazil something dystopic, but not "fallout" like dystopic after a nuclear war or a foreign invasion. The idea is that the country structure breaks apart on a situation similar — if not worse — to the old republic (1889-1930). Basically corruption to make 90s Russia looks like Germany, local militias controlling everything and even the most basic government positions being corrupted to the core.
 
Maybe if Getúlio vargas enter in the second war in side of áxis and make some relevant thing(like invade usa allies in south america or central) the allies send troops or bomb brazil and after that desunited brasil in capitalist and comunist, making maybe a civil war
 
Getulio Vargas is killed in a car accident or something and the 1930 Revolution is prevented, so the Old Republic limps on into the '30s or 40s. The Cafe com Leche political establishment's legitimacy craters due to its inability to respond to the Great Depression, and Brazil implodes into social unrest or a civil war between communist and integralist factions.

The US and other countries would almost certainly throw aid at any non-communist side in this conflict, leading to a military junta, integralist government, or neofascist regime that controls the southern states, but is dealing with a soviet funded communist insurgency in the northern states and the Amazon.

Quilombo Socialism would be the ideological origin of peasant-focused communism rather Maoist China, and the conflict drags on like a giant version of the FARC conflict, or the government stamps out the insurgency with brutal repression, and Brazil looks like a giant version of Estado Novo Portugal. If the communists wins, then Brazil would suffer all the insanity that communist rule entails.
 
Plan Rubber goes into effect
Other Latin American countries support Brazil. America eventually reaches the capital in under a month . Though Brazilian Soldiers would be forced to fight against Americans in the Amazon Rain Forest. After ww2 Brazil has a civil war. Commies rise up, Soviets support them.
While NATO supports the Brazilian government. Stalemate... Eventually the Communists win; but not after destroying many cities. Red Brazil turns itself into a hell hole. Eventual Revolution destroys dictatorship. Gets even more Brazilians killed. done
 
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Plan Rupper goes into effect
Other Latin American countries support Brazil. America eventually nukes the capital after a stalemate for two years. After ww2 Brazil has a civil war. Commies rise up, Soviets support them.
While NATO supports the Brazilian government. More Stalemate... Eventually the Communists win; but not after destroying many cities. Red Brazil turns itself into a hell hole. Eventual Revolution destroys dictatorship. Gets even more Brazilians killed. done

Completely ASB. Even if the brazilian government tries to resist the plan rubber they cannot do anything and the resistence would be null.
 
jerseyguy has the most plausible way to do this and I really can't think of another in the twentieth century. Similarly, FDR getting killed in 1933 would have screwed up the USA.
 
Here's an easy, recent one:
No Plano Real AKA Brazil ends up like Argentina.

Brazil never fixes its messy economy fully in the 90s*, doing at best a lot of patch-work plans. Governments come and go, constant instability, things get better but not better enough. We get one or even more impeached presidents. No Plano Real, less privatizations, the many reforms of that time end up being neutered and Brazil has a heavier presence of the state in the economy. Inflation is not the literal 1k per month inflation anymore, but more like 40-20% per year, and interest rates reach that level as well. Which is still bullshit.

The Asian Crash of the Late-90 combined with Minas Gerais declaring bankruptcy fuck up the country even more than OTL. ATL!9/11 hurts it as well. Things pick up because of the Commodities Boom and China, but those make the people forget to reform and the reality is that the Brazilian Economy grows even more weakly than in OTL during the Commodity Boom - and that was already weak-sauce.

The next Alt!Crash (likely near 2008 and likely for the same reasons) happens, Brazil hit even harder. Likely gets another FMI bail-out.

So, instead of the kinda-reformed Brazil that had a decent-ish early 2000s, we have a even poorer, ill-ruled and unstable Brazil. Its a big Argentina with constant changing of presidents, politics as usual, every single party is the usual brazilian variety of social democrat-ish pandering to the poor-ism and generally promise a load of bullshit that is never filled, with PT being the mostly strongly ideological party of Trotskyte firebreathers they were since the start, never "moderating" their positions.

Its a lot like modern Brazil, but like 40% more suckage. Its no "Freedom will die forever" dystopia, but it sucks.

*some could say it never did, but compared to what we had pre-1994, the current brazilian economy is going great.
 
As for the PoD:
I think the best one would be Lula beats FHC in 1993. This is not your 2002-Lula, this is still a Trostskyte firebreather who says things like Brazil ought not to pay our national debt to "foreign bankers". His mere victory is a nice shot to the economy.

Lula lasts to 1998, then he loses because he ins't letting his economy minister do his thing. Things get better, but not as good as Plano Real. The economy is still doing badly, even if Lula had to immediatly moderate his rethoric or every single foreign investitor would run off the country.

(if you want FULL DYSTOPIA, have Lula go full crazy leftie and follow his party's old rethoric)

Ciro Gomes wins in 1998, and tries a repeat of Vargas-era National Developmentist policies, but has to do a bunch of reforms (weaker, but still there) and his National Developmentist policies backfire later on because they result in more national debt.

In 2002, Roseana Sarney or Anthony Garotinho win the election. Roseana Sarney is, you know, a Sarney, and Garotinho is currently in jail for corruption right now. This tells all that needs to be said about these presidencies. Hint: It will suck.

Neither manages to fix the economy, applying more patches to it. Brazil is barely getting better since the early 90s.

Things play into the classic Argentina cycle - a liberal president shows up, gets the fix on the economy started, and then their populist/socialist sucessor goes full "spend it like we rich" mode. Its essentially the Brazilian Old Republic in the modern day, but with (crappier) internet this time. A common cycle in countries in South America.

By 2018, I have no idea who is President of Brazil, because I just shot dead a few sucessful political careers, while saving a few others. No sucessful FHC, Lula is a one-term Trotskyte failure. One thing from Brazilian politics is that you can see a lot of same or similar candidates from decades or being on the spotlight for years before - Lula spent a decade trying to become president until he did, Ciro has tried to run before, Marina Silva ran three times (or was it four?), José Serra and Geraldo Alckmin both ran twice. But sometimes you get a new candidate - Marina back when, Enéas Carneiro, Jair Bolsonaro, etc.

Some possible post-2006 candidates, in my opinion:

- Geraldo Alckmin
- José Dirceu
- Renan Calheiros.
- Aécio Neves
- Jáder Barbalho, if TTL he manages to avoid all the scandals he came under fire OTL.
- ACM Neto
- Perhaps someone from Rio Grande do Sul, like Tarso Gereissati.
 
As for the PoD:
I think the best one would be Lula beats FHC in 1993. This is not your 2002-Lula, this is still a Trostskyte firebreather who says things like Brazil ought not to pay our national debt to "foreign bankers". His mere victory is a nice shot to the economy.

Lanius, this is beautifull, I loved it, it is perfectly, it makes complete sense and is cohese, we can even close this thread since it have been completed!

Howeeeeeeeeeeeeever
I gonna ask you for another possibility since you know so much: Can the democratization process be botched to the point that a new military regime can happen? I must let very clear that I absolutely hate the 1964-85 dictatorship, so I'm just asking this of curiosity
 
Are we talking about Mozambique Civil War dystopic or Pol Pot Reigns Supreme dystopic here?

I think anything unambiguously worse than modern-day Brazil is good enough.

One could secession is worse, but there is a good argument that it might actually turn out for worse or better.

Lanius, this is beautifull, I loved it, it is perfectly, it makes complete sense and is cohese, we can even close this thread since it have been completed!

Nah, I'm sure other people have better ideas.

Howeeeeeeeeeeeeever
I gonna ask you for another possibility since you know so much: Can the democratization process be botched to the point that a new military regime can happen? I must let very clear that I absolutely hate the 1964-85 dictatorship, so I'm just asking this of curiosity

I don't know much, or so I feel.

Honestly, I have a feeling the military by the late 80s was tired and just wanted to hand the power back to the civvies. That said, they still wanted to put people amenable to their interests in charge at the start - which is why our first elections were indirect, not direct.

Seems to me that there's two generations of military folk right now in Brazil:

1. The old hands still around from the late military era. These guys evade politics as much as possible.

2. The newer officers who think that the Military has a role to play as an institution in a democratic system, an institution with values of honour and morality, but never surpassing certain barriers.

One of the reasons the dictatorship reached its twilight was the clear fact the Red Menace was running out of steam.

I think something pretty bad would have to happen to bring the Military back or post-prone the end of the military regime.

An easy one would be a late 80s Nuclear War. But that goes beyond the "crapsack Brazil" subject and goes closer into "Crapsack World, Brazil gets crapsack as after-effect". Even then, assuming Nuclear Winter is not a thing (its probably not), Brazil probably only catches a couple nukes and becomes first-world by the virtue of being one of the last men standing, so its only crapsack by our standards.

Another might be some civvie ruler fucking things up completely, but I can't see what they can do that is so bad and can't be handled democratically. Its not as if, say, a red in charge is going to get the military to shoot civvies.
 
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