AHC: CP Italy and Sweden, Entente wins

Eurofed

Banned
1. If the islands are separated from the mainland by a blockade that will be a blow to morale, to coastal economies, and to face. The only seaborne trade would be in coastal waters where it was safe(ish) and those merchants and extended networks who relied on trade would be facing ruin.

I'm not negating this would happen, although it would be much more severe on Sardinia, which is separated from Italy by a wide tract of open sea, than for Sicily, which is close to the mainland. I was just arguing that both islands were economically backward (Sardinia even more so) and Sardinia was rather marginal in the national political landscape. So the blockade effects on the econom and by extension the morale would be limited.

Sure, you have trade with/through Switzerland, Germany and Austria but its not going to compensate. I don't know if Italy is self-sufficient in this period, and if it is how much of that is from fishing?

Italy was relatively self-sufficient as foodstuff went. It's not going to suffer revolutionary instability from this before Germany and Austria-Hungary, if any. The industry was concentrated in the northern section, where the railway network was (and is) most developed. Entente costal blockade is not going to be effective in the Adriatic, so the CP may use caostal navigation there, too, to send trade to Italy. There is going to be some hardship, but it is nothing that a war government can't control. Again, the blockade is going to affect morale in the long run, but more than for the other CP powers.

2. OK I have no idea about Sicily but they always struck me as a pretty revolutiionary lot and I certainly got the impression that they didn't like the Savoyards. Having a load of American soldiers there willing to work with local organs could make a difference.

Allied occupation of Sicily in 1943 didn't trigger any separatist attempt in Sicily. Entente occupation in 1918 would not be any different. Sicily is rather like Bavaria in this regard, there is a lot of regional pride and self-identity, but Italian patriotism runs quite deep nonetheless. WWI was the age of rampant nationalism, regions with no separate national identity are not going to secede because a war is lost, especially not in a situation that would paint the ringleaders as stooges of the enemy.

3. The blockade of the coast would be a symptom of a growing feeling that the war is being fought on the wrong side, and that they are losing it. That's why I said it would lead to demonstrations etc

Oh, sure, as long as this is happening in parallel with the other CP nations is fine and given the scenario going to happen in the end. I was just protesting the fact that it seemed to single out Italy. Remember, we weathered Caporetto without collapsing or throwing in the towel.

4. Why would Italy NOT make a big deal out of Libya? It spent an enormous amount of effort to capture the place and its their shining colonial star. They aren't going to fail to try to defend it, and it is conversely the obvious place for France and Britain to be able to succeed in the attack.

Oh, sure. I was just remarking that since you assumed that the Entente would gain naval supremacy in the Mediterranean, once they occupy Libya, there is little that Italy may do about it. There would be gnashing of teeth, but it is not enough to collapse national morale.
 

Eurofed

Banned
Hmm, the Germans and Italians get a crazy idea to outflank the French lines by invading Switzerland? Austria-Hungary joins in with an attack against Lietchenstein. :) As a result, they all get bogged down in the Swiss Alps. This also lowers the CP's image in the USA, which is the key country here.

Why not ? This is a war where the CP have to snatch defeat from the jaws of victory, in order to lose, so an amount of stupidity is warranted.

Can we have the Ottomans neutral in this war?

If we were considerable more flexible with the PoD specifics, it occurs to me that we might keep the Ottomans neutral, which solves a great many problems for the Entente. Bulgaria stays neutral, so while Russia adopts a more defensive stance, the Romanians can open a viable theatre, and Serbia can be an even bigger nusiance for longer.

Hmm, I'm dubious about letting Turkey go Entente, it would make the scenario challenge perhaps a bit too easy for the Entente. I mean, WWI Italy and Turkey were of comparable weight, as the sum of military-economic power and strategic importance go, so exchanging their place in the alliance leaves the OTL balance largely unchanged. In comparison to OTL, the CP would only have the net advantage of Sweden, which was surely significant, but not the game-changer that Italy or Turkey were.
 
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