AHC: Countries other than USA and USSR become Superpowers

A surviving Ottoman Empire would be an oil superpower right off the bat, and if managed to keep Egypt or Bulgaria (somehow) and integrates them and the Arab population fully it would have the population base to be a really impressive power.

That would certainly make for an interesting timeline.

A TL were the Ottoman retains control over the Levant, Mesopotamia(Iraq), the Arabian Peninsula, Libya, Egypt(Including Sudan)

In today's world that would be over 1/4 of the world's oil supply right off the bat and nearly 15% of its natural gas production.

But how would it curb the Egyptian, Armenian and Arab nationalism? How would it rapidly industrialise?
 
Something I was wondering about the other day: could Italy become a “New Roman Empire” as Mussolini dreamed and would it be a superpower? What PODs would be needed to create a successful and long-lasting Italian Empire?

Benny stay out of WWII (getting what bribe France and UK will give him), during the war try to snatch Yugoslavia and after form an alliance with the other fascist nation like Spain and Portugal (maybe even Greece).
Not really a superpower like USA and URSS but with lybian oil and the right strategic position an alliance to take in consideration, expecially if last enough to catch all the other 'indesiderable' nation of history like Rhodesia, Taiwan, South Africa and with the right PoD even Israel (but this is a lot more difficult)
 
That would certainly make for an interesting timeline.

A TL were the Ottoman retains control over the Levant, Mesopotamia(Iraq), the Arabian Peninsula, Libya, Egypt(Including Sudan)

In today's world that would be over 1/4 of the world's oil supply right off the bat and nearly 15% of its natural gas production.

But how would it curb the Egyptian, Armenian and Arab nationalism? How would it rapidly industrialise?

Perhaps all the Ottomans needed to do was

1 stay out of WWI. Nobody atacked them. They would have lost nothing except the 2 battleships Churchill so foolishly stole from them

2 don't worry about Egyptian nationalism- realistically, Britain wasn't going to let Egyypt go until Britain itself was losing its grip world wide

3 Arab nationalism acheved nothing much in the 20s and 30s against incoming French & British colonial rulers- why couldn't Otomans have done as well in that same time frame?

4 The nationalism of the poor Armenians got them nothing OTL- why would it be more of a problem to an Ottoman Empire not being invaded by Brits etc?

5 Nobody mentioned Kurdish nationalism but the fate of the Kurds down to the present also suggests nationalism is not always triumphant

I admit this does not quickly push Turks to superpower status. But if the Young Turk regime spent its energy on continued reform, which might resemble those of Ataturk OTL, and keep going

By 1940s the oil is providing significant revenues to fund some modernization, by 1960s Turks nationalize the oil & make serious $.

Why wouldn't a modernized Turkey do much better with its oil wealth than the Gulf sheiks do? A far degree of industrializing ijn Anatolia, lots & lots of university graduates, a world class military, aren' t Turks picking up
some of the necessary to be at least a 1st class poewr, if not superpower?
 
A successful Franco-British Union following the second world war, could have a crack at becoming a superpower provided that it makes the right political decisions and has the right leadership.

What is necessary for superpower status:
-Very close political alliance with the White Commonwealth, western European nations like Belgium, the Netherlands and Scandinavia.
-The permanent neutralisation of Germany's economic supremacy by moving the centre of gravity of Europe from the Rhine valley to the Atlantic facade.
-Significants investments in technology to compensate for the lower population base.
-Close "win win" relationships with the former African colonies.
-Keeping bases all over the world.

This seems like magic, to be honest.
 

whitecrow

Banned
Benny stay out of WWII (getting what bribe France and UK will give him), during the war try to snatch Yugoslavia and after form an alliance with the other fascist nation like Spain and Portugal (maybe even Greece).
Not really a superpower like USA and URSS but with lybian oil and the right strategic position an alliance to take in consideration, expecially if last enough to catch all the other 'indesiderable' nation of history like Rhodesia, Taiwan, South Africa and with the right PoD even Israel (but this is a lot more difficult)
Interesting, but if I understand you correctly you're suggesting Italy gobble up various African nations following decolonization, correct?

I'm not seeing it - if OTL regimes like Spain and Portugal couldn't hold onto their colonies once anti-colonial sentiment in Africa came into play, how could Italy not only hold onto Horn of Africa, but EXPEND its colonial holdings?

EDIT: Oh wait, you're suggesting that rather than gobble up predominantly-black colonies, Italy instead allies with various white minority rule and/or anti-communist nations around the world, no? That seems more plausible. It would be interesting to see a TL where there is a post-WW2 Italian power block made of right-wing European nations, white-rule African nations, Israel and Taiwan (and maybe even Argentina for good measure? ;)). Talk about odd bedfellows :p.
3 Arab nationalism acheved nothing much in the 20s and 30s against incoming French & British colonial rulers- why couldn't Otomans have done as well in that same time frame?

4 The nationalism of the poor Armenians got them nothing OTL- why would it be more of a problem to an Ottoman Empire not being invaded by Brits etc?

5 Nobody mentioned Kurdish nationalism but the fate of the Kurds down to the present also suggests nationalism is not always triumphant
IIRC OTL such movements did not have support from established powers (except some German & Italian support closer to WW2). France wasn't fermenting rebellion in British Iraq, U.K. wasn't supporting rebels in French Lebanon, etc.

But ATL I wouldn't be surprised if European powers support uprisings in Ottoman Empire's holdings to weaken it and eliminate a rival.
 
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A stupidly lucky Japan / Co-Prosperity Sphere could become a superpower if it avoids its worst excesses. Russian White/Red civil war is catastrophic, Hirohito dies in the Great Kanto Earthquake... the militarists never come to power or are shut down cold and totally disgraced... and The Japanese are able to find several at least competent governors in China willing to cooperate / collaborate while Mao and Chiang go at it like feral cats, good relations are maintained with the US/UK and the whole area becomes an 'island of stability' in an ocean of unrest across the rest of the globe. No POD is ASB in and of itself of course... but the road to IJN superpower status requires Powerball winning luck.
 
This seems like magic, to be honest.

A batshit crazy Soviet Union that completely screws up its part of Germany into an agrarian hunger state, while the Europeans (after an isolationist US gives up it's zone?) hold the Ruhr industrial region could both give German industrial power without changing the Anglo-French hegemony of this European commonwealth, and make the other free nations of Europe want to be very close to the Anglo-French indeed to avoid being invaded by the batshit crazy USSR.
 
That would certainly make for an interesting timeline.

A TL were the Ottoman retains control over the Levant, Mesopotamia(Iraq), the Arabian Peninsula, Libya, Egypt(Including Sudan)

In today's world that would be over 1/4 of the world's oil supply right off the bat and nearly 15% of its natural gas production.

But how would it curb the Egyptian, Armenian and Arab nationalism? How would it rapidly industrialise?

https://www.alternatehistory.com/discussion/showthread.php?t=160168

OnkelWillie made a purposely built OttomanWank a couple years ago that is actually well thought out and very entertaining with a POD in 1878 that steamrolls into the Empire being a 20th Century SuperPower. Spoiler: The TL ends with the Ottoman Empire first on the Moon! :D
 
EDIT: Oh wait, you're suggesting that rather than gobble up predominantly-black colonies, Italy instead allies with various white minority rule and/or anti-communist nations around the world, no? That seems more plausible. It would be interesting to see a TL where there is a post-WW2 Italian power block made of right-wing European nations, white-rule African nations, Israel and Taiwan (and maybe even Argentina for good measure? ;)). Talk about odd bedfellows :p

Yes thats my idea; if Italy sit out of WWII, using the occasion for commercing and grab what she can with impunity after the war will be in a position strong enough so that can't be ignored like Portugal and Spain, expecially with the Soviet Union overrunning good part of East Europe.
In OTL paria regime like Smith'Rhodesia, Apartheid South Africa, Salazar's Portugal and Franco Spain, plus others were too little and to distant to stand alone. A stronger Fascist Italy (was ideological legitimacy was not tainted by Nazism or racial law) can put together this hodgepodge alliance due to necessity and 'realpolitick', this can make decolonization very different, as Portugal is not so military and economical isolated, Lybia will get lot of italian and after the discovery of oil it will never let go, etc. etc.
Naturally a neutral Italy in WWII make a ton of butterfly, both in the european and pacific theatre, so we can have a stronger UK and weaker URSS after the war
 

Incognito

Banned
Sorry to bump this, but what about… superpower Australia?

I admit I have not researched this, but as far as I understand Australia has significant mineral wealth & other natural resources, strong industries and potential for a large, strong military (they can certainly build A-bombs if they wanted). Australia’s climate may limit its population and food production but hey, USSR had to import food and it was considered a superpower ;).

So what would it take to get an Australian superpower? Perhaps something can draw more immigrants to Australia and force more industrialization than in OTL in 1st half of 20th century, resulting in Australia becoming stronger geopolitically than OTL. Maybe this Australia can incorporate New Zealand and maybe even Fiji into the Commonwealth of Australia. During WW2 (assuming it is more or less the same as OTL) Australia would have a strong navy and gain control of many of the Pacific Islands that OTL U.S. took from the Japanese. Post-war, like U.S.A., Australia is not ravaged by the war that ruined Europe and is in position to gain economic dominance.

So how is that? Plausible or not? If not, what would need to change to get an Australian superpower?
 

Incognito

Banned
Sorry to bump this, but what about… superpower Australia?

I admit I have not researched this, but as far as I understand Australia has significant mineral wealth & other natural resources, strong industries and potential for a large, strong military (they can certainly build A-bombs if they wanted). Australia’s climate may limit its population and food production but hey, USSR had to import food and it was considered a superpower ;).

So what would it take to get an Australian superpower? Perhaps something can draw more immigrants to Australia and force more industrialization than in OTL in 1st half of 20th century, resulting in Australia becoming stronger geopolitically than OTL. Maybe this Australia can incorporate New Zealand and maybe even Fiji into the Commonwealth of Australia. During WW2 (assuming it is more or less the same as OTL) Australia would have a strong navy and gain control of many of the Pacific Islands that OTL U.S. took from the Japanese. Post-war, like U.S.A., Australia is not ravaged by the war that ruined Europe and is in position to gain economic dominance.

So how is that? Plausible or not? If not, what would need to change to get an Australian superpower?
No one has anything to say?
 
Sorry to bump this, but what about… superpower Australia?

I admit I have not researched this, but as far as I understand Australia has significant mineral wealth & other natural resources, strong industries and potential for a large, strong military (they can certainly build A-bombs if they wanted). Australia’s climate may limit its population and food production but hey, USSR had to import food and it was considered a superpower ;).

So what would it take to get an Australian superpower? Perhaps something can draw more immigrants to Australia and force more industrialization than in OTL in 1st half of 20th century, resulting in Australia becoming stronger geopolitically than OTL. Maybe this Australia can incorporate New Zealand and maybe even Fiji into the Commonwealth of Australia. During WW2 (assuming it is more or less the same as OTL) Australia would have a strong navy and gain control of many of the Pacific Islands that OTL U.S. took from the Japanese. Post-war, like U.S.A., Australia is not ravaged by the war that ruined Europe and is in position to gain economic dominance.

So how is that? Plausible or not? If not, what would need to change to get an Australian superpower?


too small a population base.

And being able to manufacture nukes doesn't say anything either.
If the Netherlands decided it wanted a nuke it probably could build one within a year
 
too small a population base.

And being able to manufacture nukes doesn't say anything either.
If the Netherlands decided it wanted a nuke it probably could build one within a year
Yeah, and even OTL is actually pushing it in regards to population. The Australian environment is simply too poor and too vulnerable to be able to support the population required for superpower status. Was the environment more like Europe's, it would obviously be a different matter, as it would have the capacity of basically being Great Great Britain. It isn't though, so superpower status is impossible unless you cripple the rest of the world to an insane degree.
 
China has to be the most obvious candidate. For much of history it was a superpower and it is again today. If you want to have China as a superpower during the middle of the last century a la the USA vs USSR cold war then you'll need to tinker with history to bring that about. But that should still be easier than trying to turn any other candidate into a 3rd superpower.
 
With the POD as late as possible, create a scenario where two non-USA and non-USSR countries ended up as Superpowers that confronted each other in a Cold War...

(Whether one of them ended up collapsed or not, is entirely up to you)


Possible candidates:

non-Soviet Russia

Imperial/post-imperial China

Great Imperial Germany


How about: Germany versus China?

China's buildup: the "Hua Dynasty". American soldier of fortune Frederick Augustus Ward, who OTL founded the "Ever-Victorious Army", which "Chinese" Gordon led after Ward's death, is not KIA. While recovering from wounds, he learns Chinese, and establishes a strong relationship with Tseng Kuo-fan, the greatest of China's anti-insurgent generals in the 1800s. Between them they defeat the Tai Ping Rebellion. Ward demonstrates great initiative and ability, and is awarded high Imperial rank. He proves his loyalty to China when his forces defeat British troops in the Second Opium War.

But the paranoid Dowager Empress tries to have him and Tseng assasinated. Tseng and Ward ("Hua" to the Chinese) overthrow the Dowager and the Qing dynasty in self-defense. Tseng, old and sick from wounds by the assassins, declares that Ward (who has survived a dozen desperate battles, led numerous successful attacks, and brilliantly handled the political side of the rebellion) truly has "the Mandate of Heaven". He is foreign? So were the Manchus. He is married to a Chinese lady. (As OTL.) He has defended China against the foreigners.

The Hua Emperor revolutionizes China, bringing in hundreds and eventually thousands of energetic Yankee engineers and advisors. (Not that many, considering the size of China.) By 1900, China is a major industrial and military power. China supports its neighbors against European domination, having absorbed American anti-colonialist sentiment. (No, that's not ridiculous. A lot of Americans were very unhappy with annexation of the Philippines and Hawaii, and similar moves. The annexation of the Philippines passed the Senate on the VP's tie-breaking vote.)

In the Sino-Spanish War of 1894, China kicks Spain out of the Philippines and Micronesia; the Philippines becomes independent under Chinese protection, and China annexes Micronesia.

In the Sino-Russian War of 1903, China takes the Amur River area, Sakhalin, and the Kuril Islands from Russia. China also forces France to withdraw from Indochina; first blocking France's complete takeover in the 1880s, then supporting Indochinese independence in the 1900s.

Japan and Korea become China's subordinate allies too. They have friendly relations with China, but they really don't have any choice anyway. (Sort of like Canada and the U.S.)

Meanwhile in Europe: Franz Joseph dies of pneumonia, and is succeeded by Rudolph, just in time for the Ausgleich renewal crisis of 1897. Rudolph bungles the renewal, and Austria-Hungary falls to bits. Pan-German racialism is stronger than OTL, though. Imperial Germany absorbs Austria, Bohemia, and Moravia. Russia tries to add Galicia to the Kingdom of Poland, and is defeated by Germany in a short war. Italy picks up Trentino, Istria, and Dalmatia. Poland and Hungary become German satellites.

Alt-WW I breaks out around 1912, pitting Grossdeutschland, Italy, and Turkey against France and Russia. Britain is paralyzed by the Irish Crisis, and remains neutral. France and Russia are broken, with the latter collapsing. Germany become a militaristic authoritarian state, ruling over a constellation of satellite states and protectorates stretching far to the east, and dominating the Middle East through its Turkish ally. Throughout the German sphere, ethnic Germans dominate; some places explicitly, others de jure. Germanization of the locals and German colonization are both practiced.

The German sphere ends at the Urals, though. China made it clear Germans are not welcome in Asia, and created its own satellite states in Russian Asia. However, Turkish ambitions in Central Asia are a sore point.

The "Cold War" between Germany and China continues for many years.
 
With no U.S. involvement in WW2: Germany, China, Japan.

Germany becomes a superpower after conquering the bulk of Europe. With help from the Soviet Union's Turkish population in central Asia they extended their dominion to include western Siberia. (In OTL Rosenberg actually suggested this, but Hitler shelved it.) All that's left of the former Soviet Union is eastern Siberia and the Russian Far East.

China goes Communist after overthrowing the Japanese. Before its own downfall the Soviet Union inflicted enough damage to Japanese forces in China to allow the Communists to gain the upper hand a few years earlier than in OTL. Perhaps the border clashes between the Soviets and the Japanese continued longer than OTL, or a Japanese attack at the start of Barbarossa backfired, or both. In any case China is unified under the Communists but Japan retains an empire because there was no war with the U.S. It wouldn't necessarily be Germany and Japan vs. China, as the original Axis partners could easily have had a falling out.
 
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Superpower implies both the ability to harness the resources of a continent, and the subsequent ability to project power worldwide. Few countries as is qualify.

Brazil, India, and China all potentially qualify, with China probably assuming status within the next 10-50 years.

Historically, a British Empire that survived controlling India could also qualify. Perhaps in a world where India became a domain, and an effective Imperial administration was also created to control foreign policy and defense.

There's no other really viable candidates unless we start wanking out countries that are real or potential regional powers. These would include a dominant Germany, Nigeria as a nucleus of a much larger west African state, the Ottoman Empire, Persia, and Japan.
 
With the POD as late as possible, create a scenario where two non-USA and non-USSR countries ended up as Superpowers that confronted each other in a Cold War...

(Whether one of them ended up collapsed or not, is entirely up to you)

In a world with the USA relatively similar to OTL, this becomes very difficult.
 
Canada?

After WW2, Canada maintains a full warchest of NBC weapon systems. No one can talk or bribe them out of them. How nervous is the US? When China comes calling for cheap resources and face a higher price, how do they react?:rolleyes:
 
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