AHC: Completely different European nation states

[Tarabas]

This is not true, pre-Roman expansion Italy is very different from post-Roman expansion Italy, the peninsular was virtually flooded with Easter Mediterranean populations, especially urban areas.

Nope, there are many studies showing that the "flood" of people from different areas did not alter significantly the genetic composition of the Italian populace
https://ilsizzi.wordpress.com/2016/07/14/la-struttura-genetica-degli-italiani/
(Could not find a source in ENglish, my apologies).

 

[Nyegosh]

1. Magyars never penetrate into the Pannonia, or if they do, they slavicize like the Avars
2. Anglo-Saxon invasions fail, Germanics get screwed a bit
3. Franks fail to create their empire
4. Slavs a bit more politically unified early on, Mongols screwed

This makes it easy to have Europe be composed of just 4 states: A large Latin country composed of Italy, France, Spain and Portugal, perhaps Dalmatia and other bits and pieces. A Celto-Roman Great Britain, a large Germanic country in Germany and Scandinavia, and everything else being a gargantuan Slavic state (which is the easiest to pull off, without the "break" in Hungary and Romania all of them would be a dialect continuum anyway like they are 2 today).

 

[Tarabas]

Relevant

Oh, me likey. Thanks for sharing this!

 

[Gloss]

Nope, there are many studies showing that the "flood" of people from different areas did not alter significantly the genetic composition of the Italian populace
https://ilsizzi.wordpress.com/2016/07/14/la-struttura-genetica-degli-italiani/
(Could not find a source in ENglish, my apologies).

This article doesn't actually show any of this, it only uses modern Italian samples and just shows the MODERN internal diversity and even that DOES show that there was foreign admixture, a lot of it. The PCA literally shows that Southern Italians are in between Cypriots and Central italians.

If this is your "many" studies, you need to research better because you missed the most important study that actually shows how much Italy as changed, from Etruria to Sicily at least:

Science | AAAS

science.sciencemag.org

During the Imperial period (n = 48 individuals), the most prominent trend is an ancestry shift toward the eastern Mediterranean and with very few individuals of primarily western European ancestry (Fig. 3C). The distribution of Imperial Romans in PCA largely overlaps with modern Mediterranean and Near Eastern populations, such as Greek, Maltese, Cypriot, and Syrian (Figs. 2A and 3C). This shift is accompanied by a further increase in the Neolithic Iranian component in ADMIXTURE (Fig. 2B) and is supported by f-statistics (tables S20 and S21): compared to Iron Age individuals, the Imperial population shares more alleles with early Bronze Age Jordanians (f4 statistics Z-score = 4.2) and shows significant introgression signals in admixture f3 for this population, as well as for Bronze Age Lebanese and Iron Age Iranians (Z-score < −3.4).

 

[British Biscuit]

Here is an idea from the alternate/new ethnic groups thread that I saw a while back: instead of Saxons it is the Abodrites/Baltic Slavs who move across the North Sea to land in England. Thus you end up with a Slavic Kingdom on the British Islands.