The Czechoslovakian elections of 1946 offered the last best chance to establish one non-communist east European country after WW 2. The elections were held after the Soviets and US forces had evacuated the country so there was less intimidation of anti-communist forces than in other countries like Hungary which held multi party elections after WW 2.
The Czech communists won about 38% of the vote nationwide, enough, combined the voted of the Czech Social Democrats and the Slovakian Party of Labour, to ensure a narrow majority in the new parliament over the National Socialists, Slovak Democrats, Czech Catholic Peoples Party and Slovak Freedom Party. I'm trying to think up a way for the communists to get more like 25-30% of the vote, and for a potential anti-communists bloc to win a majority of the votes and seats (the election was held using proportional representation).
Some ways to get there.
1) The Sudeten Germans are not 100% expelled and disenfranchised. Instead the Czech leadership hearkens back to Professor Masaryk's theory that the Sudeten Germans are just ethnic Czechs who happen to speak German, and the new regime just expells those Sudetens who had a role in the German regime. All others could stay if they swore a loyalty oath and accepted that under the new regime Czechs were going to run the show in Bohemia and Moravia and the route to sucess for the Sudetens would lie in Czechification. Those who wouldn't accept this could leave. I believe a big number of Sudetens would accept this, and thus a voting bloc of maybe one million is now on the rolls with not many leaning toward the Communists.
2) The US army liberates more of Czech Bohemia instead of just the western Sudetenland and the Pilsen region. Under this scenario Pattons forces take Prague and a big chunk of Bohemia from the collapsing German army in the last week of the war, and thus a bigger amount of prestige accrues to the Czech non-communist forces.
3) More parties are allowed to participate in the election. In OTL, in the Czech lands there was only the National Socialist and Peoples Party as parties for anti-communists to vote for. I wonder if there had been the old Agrarian party running as well, the communist vote in the rural areas would have been less. This scenario combines with change number one in which there is far less Sudeten German farmland to distribute to Czechs. In OTL, this land redistribution by the communist- led ministry of Agriculture lead to a big vote for the communists. Now it only happens on a small scale, and there is a Czech Agarian party also vying for votes in rural areas.
4) An earlier election. Apparently the non-communists wanted an earlier election to coincide with the electorate's realization that the Soviet occupation forces weren't the most heroic and wonderful soldiers the world had ever seen. I'm not sure about this one however, as holding the election six months after the Soviet evacuation might also have been good as by this time the electorate might have felt less and less intimidated by the communists with the Soviets gone and no indication or threat that they'd be back.
Anyway, I'm reading On the Edge of the Cold War, by Igor Lukes, a book about the US embassy and espionage personel in Prague at the time, so I'm intrigued about this time of flux. I do believe that a better election result might have lead to the Finlandification of Czechoslovakia.
The Czech communists won about 38% of the vote nationwide, enough, combined the voted of the Czech Social Democrats and the Slovakian Party of Labour, to ensure a narrow majority in the new parliament over the National Socialists, Slovak Democrats, Czech Catholic Peoples Party and Slovak Freedom Party. I'm trying to think up a way for the communists to get more like 25-30% of the vote, and for a potential anti-communists bloc to win a majority of the votes and seats (the election was held using proportional representation).
Some ways to get there.
1) The Sudeten Germans are not 100% expelled and disenfranchised. Instead the Czech leadership hearkens back to Professor Masaryk's theory that the Sudeten Germans are just ethnic Czechs who happen to speak German, and the new regime just expells those Sudetens who had a role in the German regime. All others could stay if they swore a loyalty oath and accepted that under the new regime Czechs were going to run the show in Bohemia and Moravia and the route to sucess for the Sudetens would lie in Czechification. Those who wouldn't accept this could leave. I believe a big number of Sudetens would accept this, and thus a voting bloc of maybe one million is now on the rolls with not many leaning toward the Communists.
2) The US army liberates more of Czech Bohemia instead of just the western Sudetenland and the Pilsen region. Under this scenario Pattons forces take Prague and a big chunk of Bohemia from the collapsing German army in the last week of the war, and thus a bigger amount of prestige accrues to the Czech non-communist forces.
3) More parties are allowed to participate in the election. In OTL, in the Czech lands there was only the National Socialist and Peoples Party as parties for anti-communists to vote for. I wonder if there had been the old Agrarian party running as well, the communist vote in the rural areas would have been less. This scenario combines with change number one in which there is far less Sudeten German farmland to distribute to Czechs. In OTL, this land redistribution by the communist- led ministry of Agriculture lead to a big vote for the communists. Now it only happens on a small scale, and there is a Czech Agarian party also vying for votes in rural areas.
4) An earlier election. Apparently the non-communists wanted an earlier election to coincide with the electorate's realization that the Soviet occupation forces weren't the most heroic and wonderful soldiers the world had ever seen. I'm not sure about this one however, as holding the election six months after the Soviet evacuation might also have been good as by this time the electorate might have felt less and less intimidated by the communists with the Soviets gone and no indication or threat that they'd be back.
Anyway, I'm reading On the Edge of the Cold War, by Igor Lukes, a book about the US embassy and espionage personel in Prague at the time, so I'm intrigued about this time of flux. I do believe that a better election result might have lead to the Finlandification of Czechoslovakia.