AHC: "Communist Japan"

cpip

Gone Fishin'
This morning, one of the co-hosts on Fox and Friends mistakenly spoke of the United States's defeat of "Communist Japan".

So, for a challenge today: how would we get a Communist Japan, and one that wars with the United States?

My first thought would be a fall to Socialism/Communism before World War II, rather than a rising of a Communist Japan that went to war afterwards, because a cold war Communist Japan actively fighting the United States seems a bit far-fetched.

Two possibilities that immediately spring to mind:

1. A longer Russo-Japanese War leads to the same sorts of rioting and mutinies that brought St. Petersburg down.
2. The Rice Riots of 1918 get even more out of control, and some degree of organized rebellion, rather than just the rioting and disorder, takes hold. That probably would require the Socialist and Anarchist movements not to have been heavily suppressed before the First World War.

Other options?
 
Japan loses Russo-Japanese war--say that the Russians aren't absolutely defeated early on and ultimately their massive manpower pool becomes telling. A massive socialist/anarchist movement then grows despite official repression. This leads to events eerily similar to OTL Russia. Japan turns southward during WWI having lost the opportunity to expand North and without the military experience and confidence of the victory against Russia are able to make only slight progress against German possessions in the Pacific. After the war they are however given much of the German Pacific but ultimately food shortages and the Rice Riots grow immediately after the war and soldiers who have grown disillusioned of headfirst human wave attacks refuse to suppress the protests. Ultimately the riots force the government to step down. However, the Japanese Socialist Republic--now fuelled by a much more honest anti-imperialist rhetoric--continues to move south, while Russia never falls to Communism and remains an uneasy member of the Entente. WWII ends up playing out much like OTL (Hitler is an idiot and declares war on America in '41 or '42 thinking the Americans will only be able to deal with the Atlantic or Pacific and thus thinks he can completely cut of GB) but with much less German-Japanese coordination and with more Japanese naval focus, though I doubt it can actually beat the US. On the flip side, I'd be willing to bet that the Japanese in 1944 ITTL will make a negotiated surrender to the Americans.
 
Soviets invade Japan during WWII (after megatsunami from April 1942 impact of asteroid Hermes destroys all USN and IJN bases in the Pacific). The destruction of the West Coast (including Berkeley) also halts the Manhattan Project.

Japan breaks free from the USSR after the former is devastated by (nonnuclear) WWII.5 in the early 1960s.

By the 1990s, Japan has become a Juche State ruled by Shoko Asahara. The U.S. finally invades in 2003 after he keeps threatening to launch sarin gas missiles.
 
If the Khalkin Gol and Nomonhan incidents never happen, maybe the relationship of Japan and USSR is not as tense, and an Imperial Japan still invades the DEI and goes to war with America, there might be a "Communist" Japan. Say in 1944. or early 45., some generals decide that cooperation with the Soviets is preferable to being taken over by Americans. A coup of sorts is organized, that installs Communists into power, who surrender...but it's the USSR that gets to pull Japan in. A lot of the backers are IJA/IJN men, still Japanese nationalists at heart, and are itching at a future round 2 versus the USA. This red/brown Japan rebuilds with Soviet help, and is more than willing to fight the US.

Perhaps semi-open conflict could happen during the Vietnam crisis, as Japan itches for war, even clashing with Moscow over the issue..
 
My first thought would be a fall to Socialism/Communism before World War II, rather than a rising of a Communist Japan that went to war afterwards, because a cold war Communist Japan actively fighting the United States seems a bit far-fetched.

A Cold War-era Communist Japan could be a possibility, but to pull that off requires actually dividing Japan à la Germany (and, briefly, Austria), meaning that what we would get would be Communist North Japan vs. capitalist South Japan (the latter retaining the traditional division between West Japan and East Japan, of which to the South Japanese government North Japan would be but one part of). In that case, anti-Japaneseism becomes more of a threat not only to South Japan but also to South Korea as well ITTL.

Now, for a pre-WWII POD, exploiting the Taishô period could be a possibility. How that would happen, or even replicating the Russian Revolution translated to Japanese conditions, I don't know. I do know, though, that if Japan goes Communist before WWII it's taking Korea and Taiwan with it.
 
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