AHC: Communist Japan in WW2

Inspired by https://www.thedailybeast.com/fox-and-friends-defeat-of-communist-japan-proves-us-is-a-great-nation

The challenge here is to get a "People's Republic of Japan" to exist during WW2, and one that wars with the United States. POD should be around 1900 and 1939, create one of your choice.

And I'm talking about the whole of Japan, not a divided Japan.

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It depends on how independent it is, and whether it is a result of soviet intervention or an indigenous revolution.

Option A: the alt-North Korea

It would probably be a nazbol-esque third positionist government that combines socialistic policies and state planning with an emphasis on racial purity, or at least cultural superiority.North Korea's system borrows very heavily from imperial japanese ideas and propaganda tropes because its prewar communist movement was basically nonexistent. The DPRK drapes itself in communist aesthetics and vocabulary, but it officially sees Koreans as a pure, childlike people who need to be protected from the outside world by a maternalistic, military focused government. There is absolutely no enthusiasm for a world revolution or workers from all nations coming together.

The Khmer rouge is the only other self-identified communist regime which shares this focus on ethnic nationalism. Communism in Asia is really a different creature from Europe and Russia, possibly due to the way Marxist texts were translated and also due to differences in Asian political thought. The PRC borrows heavily from legalist and technocratic ideas in a way that Hungary or Poland wouldn't.

Option B: Japanese East Germany
If the USSR intervenes against Japan and sets up a Soviet client state in Hokkaido and or Sakhalin, I'd expect it to be a relative orthodox Marxist-Leninist regime. East Germany was set up by Moscow with a nomenklatura of doctrinaire stalinists who made the USSR after Stalin look like revisionists. It was the playground of old-guard German communists who had survived the tumultuous early 20th century, and didn't really produce a distinctive Walter Ulbricht thought or new ideas during its existence.

Option C: Socialism with Japanese characteristics
The Imperial Japanese Asia for Asians propaganda would dovetail very well with a Japanese regime that claims to leading East Asia to socialism. I'm pretty sure Japan still had a substantial population of farmers and agricultural laborers before WW2, so an agrarian communist tendency similar to Maoism could evolve here. A communist Japan would also be likely to make a Molotov-Ribbentrop deal with the USSR to divide China between them, and possibly increase support for the Chinese nationalists. I don't know enough about the Japanese communist movement to say.
 
Perhaps early failures of the army in China, in the 30-s could disgrace the militarists enough for them to lose their grip on power. If the economic situation is bad, Communists might rise in popularity. However, the resulting system will have to be toned down somewhat, compared to Russian Bolshevik terror. The Emperor would probably not be executed, and might even be allowed to stay as a ceremonial figure. Japan's collectivist ethos would fit in well with Communism.
The foreign policy of such a Japan would be Pan-Asianist, and it is likely that the Japanese military would not commit atrocities upon "brotherly people".
 
I think an interesting question too would be that if a Communist Japan did end up warring with the United States, would it still be a part of the Axis or would it be independent?
 
" it is likely that the Japanese military would not commit atrocities upon "brotherly people".

Why would this be likely? Communist regimes have committed some of the worst atrocities in human history.
 
Why would this be likely? Communist regimes have committed some of the worst atrocities in human history.
Unlike the OTL military which was driven by a warped bushido code, and committed atrocities upon those that were in Japan's perceived colonial realm, a Communist army would not be a tool of colonial expansion, but of at least partial liberation- for the Filipinos, Indonesians...
 
Well I imagine it'd be awfully awkward to justify lend lease to the USSR in this timeline after Dec. 7th.
 
Well I imagine it'd be awfully awkward to justify lend lease to the USSR in this timeline after Dec. 7th.

"Let's make a huge historical change and then act like everything else is unchanged." In a world sufficiently different that Japan (where Communists before 1945 were a negligible force, persecuted even during the relatively "liberal" 1920's) was controlled by Communists it is very difficult to think that World War II as we know it would take place, let alone that Japan would attack the US on December 7, 1941.
 
Unlike the OTL military which was driven by a warped bushido code, and committed atrocities upon those that were in Japan's perceived colonial realm, a Communist army would not be a tool of colonial expansion, but of at least partial liberation- for the Filipinos, Indonesians...

Like the Soviet Red Army, the great humane force in the Baltic nations, Finland, collectivization etc.
 
We are probably looking at a coup at the end of Taisho era, with the POD at the Toranomon incident (lone-man attempt to assassinate then-crown prince Hirohito) in 1923. The attempt succeeds, and Prince Hirohito dies. This leads to not just the 1925 Public Security Preservation Law (with socialism being outlawed) in OTL, but full emergency martial law:

Liberals (non-existent remnants of Freedom and People's Rights movement dreamt up by the military), Communists and Korean separatists are accused of working together. Violent crackdown nation-wide of not these groups but all all political groups and buddhists by Tokko, the "thought police". They arrest Prime Minister Hara (anti-militarist, known for his reluctance in suppressing Korean culture), torturing him to death. House of Representatives is dissolved, while House of Peers (purged of its Korean nobles) remains in session, pro forma.

Opposition to martial law leads to a semi-organised armed uprising that is led by the mainstream parties, including Kenseikai. Japanese Communists are more belligerent and better armed thanks to being idly bankrolled by recently formed Comintern - Soviet is promised a return of South Sakhalin and the Kwantung lease (lost by Russia in 1905 to Japan). It is Soviet's first armed attempt to spread the Communist gospel internationally, and Japanese Communist Party gets a foothold in the factories around Kansai, Tokyo and Hokkaido.

The financial crisis of 1927 ends in a hard landing for the economy. Bank of Japan fails to provide emergency capital to the zaibatsu oligarchs who ends up bankrupt and nationalised by the military. But lack of capital weakens the Imperial rule - once the military runs out of zaibatsu assets to sell (mostly sold to American and British financial interests), they cannot afford the payroll. By early 1930s, we are looking at mass desertion to the newly formed Constitutional Restoration Army (CRA), a rag-tag Hara-ist militia that threatens to march against Tokyo, vowing to restore the parliamentary monarchy and abolish the upper chamber.

The risks of civil war, and a popular uprising emerging in Korea forces the Imperial Household Agency starting to negotiate terms of truce with the constitutionalist army. Unrealistic expectations from IHA leads to breakdown of the talks with the Emperor Taisho placed in "protective care" by the Constitutionalist militia. However, the Emperor (already of frail health) dies in custody after just two days. National mourning is announced by both sides of the conflict - during which a group of officers from the expansionist and militarist Kodo-Ha faction mount a counteroffensive. A wave of assassinations on leading constitutionalists and intellectuals decapitate the militia over night. Emperor Hirohito's well-travelled internationalist younger brother (and a patron of the Kodo-Ha) Yasuhito, takes the throne while Tokyo is still burning.

The new military rule prepares mass arrests and a campaign to stave off the Korean insurgency. In order to recapitalise Bank of Japan, the military commences to re-nationalise assets that were sold to foreign investors ten years prior, when suddenly the British battleships and cruisers anchored precisely 3.01 nautical miles outside of Tokyo Bay - but unclear on which side they will intervene. At this stage, not much remains of Japan's Imperial Navy that won the decisive battles against Russia - the Navy modernisation under the "Circle Plans" were scrapped after the 1927 financial crisis, and the Army funnelled resources to its own branch to stage an invasion of Manchuria from Korea.

By mid-1930s Stalin had consolidated his powers in Soviet and started to turn his attention overseas, e.g. Spanish civil war. He also feared a second Japanese attack, and orders the Japanese Communists to mount an attack. The Japanese Red Army marches against Tokyo with Russian and British weaponry (obtained from the black market), obliterating the remaining Constitutionalists from behind that were camped just north of Arakawa river. After a week of street fighting (starting from Ueno, old-town Asakusa and to the demolition of Tokyo Station), Tokyo finally falls. Communist forces set the imperial grounds on fire, desecrating the Empress and plundering the thousand-old Imperial archives. British Navy set sail immediately when the smoke from the Imperial palace could be seen from the sea.

Documents later reveal how British and the Dutch established rapport with then-Prince Yasuhito during his visit to Europe to attend the crowning of King George earlier same year, sent away by Emperor Taisho to escape the political turbulent Japan. Yasuhito also visited Germany and met with Hitler, who he found vulgar and "unreliable." In return for re-arming the Imperial Army, the Emperor-to-be offered Britain to hand over the Japanese concessions in China, a "perpetual brotherhood of Imperial nations", "most favoured nation" trading rights, and a guarantee to protect foreign investments – a guarantee he failed to uphold as the Emperor quickly turned into a puppet of the young officers that staged the coup. However, Britain was also secretly arming Imperials, Constitutionalists and communists alike.

The People's Republic of Nihon (Nihon Jinmin Kyowakoku) was immediately recognised by USSR, United States, France and Britain. After the Ribbentrop-Molotov pact the same year, Germany also recognises PRN. Armed conflicts between Imperials and were still occurring two years after the fall of Tokyo in areas around the army and navy strongholds in southern Japan (Nagasaki, Hiroshima, Sasebo). Soviet receives Sakhalin and pledge financial and military support, but only a fraction is actually paid.

Meanwhile, the British unilaterally extend their lease of Chinese territory from Hong Kong to Formosa under the pretence of restoring order. Also, the "Insular" US Government in Philippines (midst of a process to grant independence to the Commonwealth of Philippines) launches an expedition to Southern Formosa, where the US had sent a military expedition in the years following the Rover incident of the 1860s.

The provisional Korean government (supported by Nationalist China) declares independence two days before Tokyo falls.
 
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Turning Japan into a communist state by the 1930s/1940s is going to cause a massive butterfly effect. World War II (in the Pacific) as we know it doesn't happen; if a military conflict still breaks out anyways, it's going to look very different.
 
Inspired by https://www.thedailybeast.com/fox-and-friends-defeat-of-communist-japan-proves-us-is-a-great-nation

The challenge here is to get a "Japanese People's Republic" during WW2, and one that wars with the United States. POD should be around 1900 and 1939, create one of your choice.

And I'm talking about the whole of Japan, not a divided Japan.

0B46qh9.jpg
Japan loses WW1 against Germany and has to pay lots of reparations and has to leave from China and Korea. Without resources, the Japanese population would starve so like in Russia happened, the communists (with soviet help) would grow and they would launch a revolution against the Emperor. After that, the Japanese People's Republic would be formed and allied with the Soviets they would try to expand communism across Asia.
 
Here are some PODs:

1) this is cheating because the POD is in the nineteenth century. But Meiji doesn't happen, and then in the 1920s the Japanese look around and realize they have to adopt a European model to catch up to the European powers quick. They are not sure which model to adopt, so decide to imitate Russia. The leadership of the Soviet Union is more than happy to help with all sorts of technical support, and the Japanese somehow manage to go communist without dumping the Emperor.

Note that there are some butterflies to this scenario. Korea is still independent, Taiwan is still Chinese, the Russians still hold "Port Arthur" and dominate Manchuria, there are a few more u-boat sinkings (the Japanese provided some destroyers to their allies), and during the war there is no obvious candidate to get the Germans out of Tsingtao, probably Tsarist Russia does it. So the Far East around 1930 will look different.

2) The Central Powers win World War I. The peace conference is handled differently and since the CP is not a globe spanning alliance the Japanese are not invited. After the war Germany asks for Tsingtao and their other Pacific islands back and gets refused. The Germans send an expedition to the Far East that sinks most of the Japanese navy. The post Meiji system is discredited and something something communist revolution.

3) Japan sides with the Central Powers during World War I. It doens't make a difference if they remain neutral at first (most likely) or take Tsingtao and then stab their allies in the back. They can't do the 1941-2 expansion but they can attack Russia, take over Hong Kong and other conessions, and probably go after Indochina and the Philippines. Despite this the Central Powers still lose and the entire League of Nations forces Japan to back down, hand everything back, and pay reparations. Something something communist revolution. This is the least likely scenario because they are more likely to go hyper-nationaist or fascist.

Not only are these unlikely, you get the least amount of butterflies from the POD from 1), and that still changes a lot of things.
 
The People's Republic of Nihon (Nihon Jinmin Kyowakoku) was immediately recognised by USSR, United States, France and Britain. After the Ribbentrop-Molotov pact the same year, Germany also recognises PRN. Armed conflicts between Imperials and were still occurring two years after the fall of Tokyo in areas around the army and navy strongholds in southern Japan (Nagasaki, Hiroshima, Sasebo). Soviet receives Sakhalin and pledge financial and military support, but only a fraction is actually paid.

Meanwhile, the British unilaterally extend their lease of Chinese territory from Hong Kong to Formosa under the pretence of restoring order. Also, the "Insular" US Government in Philippines (midst of a process to grant independence to the Commonwealth of Philippines) launches an expedition to Southern Formosa, where the US had sent a military expedition in the years following the Rover incident of the 1860s.

The provisional Korean government (supported by Nationalist China) declares independence two days before Tokyo falls.

1941 to 1945

Two years after Tokyo falls to the communists, Britain and France declares war on Nazi Germany. The US, USSR and Japan stay neutral in the conflict. Soviet and Japan declares war against the Axis in 1941. However, Stalin deems orientals unreliable, effeminate and lacking the physical constitution (and Russian skills) to be useful soldiers in the harsh winter wars. The Japanese "Friendship battalion" fights on the Eastern Front - few of them ever returns home.

The attempts to industrialise the People's Republic of Japan is excruciatingly slow under a planned economy: Its main export staples are the same as at the turn of the century, namely coal, textiles (in particular raw silk) and women. Communist Japan also maintains a large (nationalised) merchant fleet, which becomes the third largest in the world by the time of WWII in Europe. Japan runs the trans-Pacific routes, with cabotage rights into China and the archipelago of US Philippines. Trade flourish with no maritime war taking place in the Pacific.

With little success in industrial goods and raw materials, Japan relies on its services-led economy. Japan is heavily dependent on its ports and personal remittances. One-tenth of the population emigrates overseas - to China, the occupied territories in Asia, or the Americas. Over three decades of civil war, poverty and slow reconstruction have taken their toll. PRN government also pays its debt to USSR by "exporting" dissidents and their families to work in Soviet mines. Depopulation is notable in the rural areas, especially where the "imperial" IJA guerrilla still fights a scorched-earth war using child soldiers.

Communist Japan may have nationalised most means of production and collectivised its farms: Nonetheless it develops an "unhealthy" dependency on "grey market" economics, exports to non-communist markets (e.g. China and the occupied territories, or the United States). By necessity, Japan is much less ideologically orthodox than USSR on economic policy. For Japanese communism, Karl Marx's speech embracing free trade (at the 1868 Brussels Congress) becomes a central economic thesis - and an ideological fig leave.

Formosa plunges into a war. The Army Governor-General of Imperial Japan refuses to acknowledge the general order for disarmament and immediate withdrawal. The Japanese generals in Taiwan proclaim a renegade "Republic of Japan" – a cult-like enclave ruled by a civ-mil government through martial law. The past three Emperors continue to be revered as gods - yet, the cult receives the support of the locals in the light of the British and US claims on the island.

British troops easily takes Peng-hu and launch amphibious assaults on Tainan and reaches Hsinchu. The British navy also embargoes Taipei, while the US navy controls the strip of land along Formosa's east coast. An indigenous communist cell fights in the central mountains with its supplies smuggled from Mao's guerrillas in Fujian. This leads effectively to a three-way conflict and a stalemate between the US and Britain, against the communists and Japanese colonialists. Republic of Japan continues to control the capital of Taipei when WWII ends in Europe.

Republic of Korea under Kim Gu and his provisional government (sponsored by Chiang Kai-Shek) in China declares independence just before Tokyo falls to the Communists. The new foreign minister, Rhee Syng-man, is instrumental in securing American military and civilian support, as Asia moves into a Cold War. Korea comes out ahead of its neighbours economically, as it is spared from the Japanese civil war and have much of its infrastructure, food security and the educational system intact.

The vast majority of IJA forces that leave the Korea peninsula for Japan and are interned by Communists upon arrival. Most of the Japanese veterans perish in the Soviet mines. But a few thousand Japanese IJA soldiers are recruited by Chinese national army to fight Mao's communists in return for an unfulfilled promise to support them to liberate Japan. Republic of Korea supports Chiang in his war against Mao, at one point advancing as far as up to Jilin.

Korean communists are weakened by an internal division between united national communists (Kim Won-bong and Pak Hon-yong) who compete with Stalin-supported communists under Kim Il-sung, a young officer in Soviet Red Army's 88th Manchurian brigade. Kim is rejected by a majority of Koreans as an imposter as he is far too young to be the namesake resistance hero from the Japanese occupation.

By 1945, ROK is a stable entity that opened up a second front against Mao's troops in the north-eastern flank, offering Chiang's nationalists much needed relief. US bases are lined along the Yalu river, but Truman is unwilling to be drawn into the Chinese civil war.

At the San Fransisco Conference, Communist Japan is the only Asian power amongst the victorious. As an ally of Soviet, Japan is the only Asian country to have fought Germany and Italy - while both Nationalist and Communist China had remained neutral. The demarkation line between the Communist bloc (Soviet, Mao, Japan) against the US (the US, Korea and Chiang) runs roughly through the 39th parallel through China.

None of the powers possess a nuclear bomb. The a-bomb was not a necessity to end the WWII in Europe, and the war in the Pacific never took place. Soviet and the US are years away - if not a decades - from a Trinity test.

Remnants of IJA control Formosa, although it is a matter of time before British/American troops take control.
 
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