AHC: Communist Iran, with a PoD of 1947 or later only-

raharris1973

Gone Fishin'
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This challenge is inspired by General Finley's interesting thread on a Communist Iran and McCarthyism.

This is a broader discussion of the range of plausible PoDs that might lead to a Communist Iran.

The restriction on the scenario is that the PoD must be in 1947 or later. In this way, the Iranian Communists piggybacking to power based on the WWII era Soviet occupation is not an option.

To kick off the bidding, I will quote Finley's 1953 PoD:

"I'm doing some work on a TL idea that I've had batting around in my head for a while. The idea is that Tehran police chief Mahmoud Afshartous isn't assassinated and in the aftermath of the failed coup attempt against the PM he is in charge of regulating the rioting Tudeh forces. In OTL the man in charge subduing the protesters was an avowed monarchist who used the opportunity to brutalize the Communists and Pro-Mossadegh forces. Mahmoud Afshartous was far more wary of the Americans than Mossadegh, who had called on the crackdown against Tudeh rioters because of the Americans complaining about them, so the Tudeh forces aren't demobilized. Kermit Roosevelt and his cohorts manage to kill Afshartous when they launch their next coup attempt, but with the 8,000 Tudeh supporter in Tehran and the TPMO still mobilized and ready to fight causing the second coup attempt to be far more chaotic. With the situation even more chaotic than OTL as a result of the melee, the TPMO launches their own coup attempt, secretly arrests Mossadegh claiming that he was injured in the pro-Shah coup attempt and arrests many of the pro-America/pro-monarchist coup leaders."

-----What other ideas would *you* suggest?
 

raharris1973

Gone Fishin'
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I don't know how plausible a Communist takeover of Iran would be during the Cold War, but I would suggest that if domestic Communists of the Tudeh party seized power, the geography and the demography of Iran at least would lend itself well to consolidation of the regime. The top several cities, most of the population and arable land are much closer to the USSR and Caspian sea than to the Persian Gulf. Iran's east and south are more sparsely populated than it's north and west. Alot of Soviet aid could be passed over to a Tudeh Iran in relatively short train, truck and plane trips.

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The only Soviet interest in Iran is oil and ports, both of which lie in the southern regions.

I don't know about any POD's, but I wager that if Iran went communist, Britain would plead Iraq to invade and occupy the oil wells. Those areas are mostly Arabic, so the Iraqis would have a tangible claim.

There's also the fate of the Kurds. Would Iran mimic the Kremlin's system of ethnic republics, thus providing a platform for Kurdish nationalism?
 
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